Global Markets in a Period of Turbulence. Part 5.
How the Heating Oil futures auction reflects the situation with wars, sanctions, and unexpected (not really) diesel exports. Scenarios for the HO futures contract.
Forex Market Analytics
Wall Street’s Rebound: A New Rally or Just a Technical Reset?
Wall Street recovered after a technology-led selloff, but the bond market did not provide an obvious reason for celebration. The key test is whether equities can hold their gains, broaden participation, and withstand a 5.24% ten-year Treasury yield.
Why Inflation Is Holding Back the Moscow Exchange Before the October Rate Decision
The market is waiting for September inflation data, but the real issue is broader: whether the figures will force the Bank of Russia to keep monetary conditions tight for longer.
Trading Pair Behavior Analysis for 9.10.2026
On AUDUSD, the upward correction from 0.6913 appears to be continuing. A Pin Bar formed yesterday, but without any visible support, so it is not worth considering for trades.
AI Rally Meets Its Earnings Test as Treasury Yields Reach 2002 Highs
The modest retreat in US equities looks less like a confirmed reversal than a test of whether corporate profits can support AI-driven valuations while Treasury yields remain exceptionally high.
Daily Forex Analysis for 8.10.2026
GBPUSD is failing to make a long correction, and the price is stuck in a narrow range above 1.3158. I think I will look for an opportunity during the day...
Forex Market Analysis for 7.10.2026
EURUSD stopped at 1.1212 and will likely begin an upward correction after a strong, nearly pullback-free decline. Our correction targets include the FVG at 1.1285.....
Can 30% Earnings Growth Justify the S&P 500 Above 7,800?
The S&P 500 has crossed 7,800 as investors anticipate extraordinary third-quarter earnings growth. The headline forecast is impressive, but the record will be fundamentally convincing only if profit strength extends beyond a narrow group of AI leaders and management guidance remains resilient.
Technical and Candlestick Analysis for 5.10.2026
On Friday, USDCHF made an interesting move toward the previously crossed level of 0.8248. This gave us two Pin Bar patterns pointing in opposite directions.
Why Bitcoin Is Stalling at $87,000 Despite ETF Inflows
Bitcoin ETF inflows are positive, but the simultaneous retreat from Ether funds reveals a selective market rather than a broad risk-on move. That distinction helps explain why BTC remains supported near $87,000 without yet breaking through it convincingly.
Global Markets in a Period of Turbulence. Part 4.
Yellow, black, and digital gold: where speculators are looking. The geopolitical situation in the world is gradually heating up.
Global Markets in a Period of Turbulence. Part 3.
Analysis of the global oil market in 2026: shrinking supply and demand, inventory depletion, forecasts from the IEA, EIA, and J.P. Morgan, as well as possible WTI price scenarios. The outlook for the ruble against the dollar and its weakening dependence on oil prices are examined separately.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Slow as Ether Funds Leak Capital: Is “Uptober” Stalling?
Bitcoin ETF inflows remained positive but fell sharply, while Ethereum funds recorded net outflows. The divergence suggests that institutional demand has narrowed rather than disappeared—and leaves October’s seasonal bullish thesis waiting for stronger evidence.
Bitcoin’s Rising Open Interest: Healthy Demand or a Crowded-Long Warning?
Bitcoin is holding near 85,106 USDT with only a modest daily gain, while open interest and perpetual funding are rising. The divergence does not prove that leverage is excessive, but it creates a clear test: if positions keep expanding without stronger price confirmation, long-liquidation risk will increase.
Why Higher Inflation Is Not Lifting the Euro: The French Risk Premium Matters More
Eurozone inflation surprised slightly to the upside, yet the euro barely advanced against the dollar and weakened against the Swiss franc. The divergence suggests that investors are looking beyond the headline CPI figure and assigning greater weight to the widening risk premium on French government debt.
Payrolls Versus 5%: What the Treasury Market Is Really Asking
The September jobs report may reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December decision, but a 10-year Treasury yield near 5.24% probably reflects more than fear of one additional rate increase.
Currency Pair Movement Forecast for 2.10.2026
On AUDUSD, we are near the lower boundary of a narrow sideways range clearly visible on the monthly chart. The price has now stopped at 0.6913...
The Fed’s October Reprieve: Why December Is Still in Play
A softer core PCE reading sharply reduced the market-implied odds of an October Fed rate increase, yet traders still largely expect another move by December. The apparent contradiction suggests that markets have changed the likely timing of further tightening, not abandoned the scenario itself.
Forex Market Thoughts for 1.10.2026
GBPUSD made an excellent upward correction into the 1.3289 FVG. We should probably expect the price to continue falling below the 1.3159 lows.
Why Calm US Indices Are Hiding a Weaker Market Beneath the Surface
Small headline-index moves conceal a more important shift: rising Treasury yields are pressuring most US stocks while a narrow group of technology leaders keeps the capitalization-weighted benchmarks looking resilient.
Several Trading Ideas for 30.09.2026
EURUSD slightly updated the 1.1324 low. This can be considered the lower boundary of the range clearly visible on the weekly chart.
Forex market trading recommendations — reviews, forecasts and trading ideas for traders who follow currency, CFD and crypto market moves.