Bitcoin SOPR — BTC Holder Profit and Loss

Current verified readings

Current regime: Break-even reset. The 1 line separates realized profit from realized loss; persistence matters more than one crossing.

SOPR regimes

How to read the metrics

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is the aggregate USD value of spent outputs at the moment they are spent, divided by the USD value of those same outputs at the moment they were created. Imagine a simplified group of coins acquired when Bitcoin traded at $50,000 and spent when it traded at $55,000. Its ratio would be about 1.10, indicating realized profit. Spending the same group at $45,000 would produce roughly 0.90 and indicate realized loss. The real daily metric aggregates many outputs, so it describes participant behavior rather than the story of one transaction.

aSOPR addresses a specific weakness of raw SOPR. Very fast technical transfers can spend an output soon after creation and add noise around 1. The adjusted version excludes outputs younger than one hour. One hour is neither a forecast horizon nor a magic number; it is an established filter intended to separate part of the operational churn from more meaningful economic spending. TLAP shows aSOPR only when it covers at least 30% of the selected period, so isolated readings cannot look like a complete series. Until coverage is sufficient, the interface explains that the data is accumulating and never interpolates missing observations.

STH-SOPR and LTH-SOPR split the market by coin age. The short-term cohort contains coins younger than 155 days, while the long-term cohort contains coins aged 155 days or more. The threshold comes from the observed probability of an output being spent again: after roughly five months, that probability historically falls noticeably. It is an analytical classification, not a legal definition of an investor. STH tends to react to recent volatility and local stress, whereas LTH reveals whether older supply is moving at a profit or loss. Comparing both cohorts provides context that aggregate SOPR alone cannot offer.

During an advancing market, SOPR often remains above 1 and pullbacks toward the line can represent break-even tests. During a declining phase, readings may remain below 1 and recoveries toward the line may meet selling pressure. A single crossing confirms nothing, however, because the daily value depends on the mix of spent UTXOs, large transfers and exchange activity. It is more useful to examine a sequence of days together with price direction, volume, MVRV, NUPL and the broader cycle phase. SOPR measures an outcome holders have already realized; it does not dictate what price must do next.

A common mistake is to treat every reading above 1 as a sell signal and every reading below 1 as a buy signal. The metric does not work that way. A strong trend can sustain profit taking for weeks, and capitulation can last longer than an unmanaged position can tolerate. Do not mix metric dates: every tile displays the date of its own latest reading. TLAP discards zero and economically impossible readings, leaves gaps empty rather than interpolating them, and shows aSOPR only when it covers at least 30% of the selected period. Values may differ slightly between providers because of their UTXO filtering and classification rules.

This tool is designed for market-context research. It does not know a user’s position size, liquidity needs, fees, time horizon or risk tolerance. Compare SOPR with Bitcoin MVRV, Bitcoin NUPL, Pi Cycle Top, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart and the halving countdown before drawing a conclusion. Agreement between independent observations can make the picture more informative, but it cannot turn a historical metric into a guarantee. This page is informational and is not individual investment advice.

Bitcoin SOPR FAQ

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