Bitcoin NUPL — BTC Market Cycle Phases

What NUPL is

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is market capitalization minus realized capitalization, divided by market capitalization: (market cap − realized cap) / market cap. A positive value means the market holds an aggregate unrealized profit; a negative value means aggregate holder cost basis is above the current valuation.

How to read the color zones

• Below 0 — capitulation: the market is in aggregate unrealized loss.
• 0–0.25 — hope / fear: profit is small and sentiment remains fragile.
• 0.25–0.50 — optimism / anxiety: unrealized profit expands, but pullbacks quickly revive anxiety.
• 0.50–0.75 — belief / denial: holders sit on substantial profit and profit-taking pressure grows.
• Above 0.75 — euphoria / greed: historically overheated, but not a precise top timer.

Comparing bitcoin cycles

The second chart aligns the 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 cycles by days since halving. It compares how quickly unrealized profit accumulated and how closely the current path resembles earlier cycles. A similar shape does not guarantee the same price outcome or top date.

NUPL works best alongside MVRV, SOPR, price and liquidity. Historical zones provide holder-behavior context; they are not a standalone buy or sell signal. This page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

Definition: CryptoQuant. Historical MVRV data: Coin Metrics Community Data. Latest values: BTCFunk public API.

For the historical part, NUPL is derived from MVRV as 1 − 1/MVRV. Realized capitalization methodologies differ slightly between data providers, so values may vary by a few hundredths across sources.