Bitcoin MVRV: current value, cycle zones and Z-Score

Current MVRV state

MVRV1.23

Z-Score0.40

Percentile22%

Data dateAug 9, 2026

Historical MVRV zones

Below 1CapitulationMarket cap is below realized cap and the aggregate market is underwater.

1–2RecoveryValuation is back above aggregate cost basis, while the profit cushion remains moderate.

2–3ExpansionHolder profit expands alongside the bullish phase.

3–3.5OverheatingHistorically high valuation raises profit-taking risk.

Above 3.5EuphoriaA rare high-risk zone, but not an exact market-top timer.

How to read the indicator

MVRV compares Bitcoin market capitalization with realized capitalization, an approximation of the network's aggregate cost basis using each coin's last-movement price.

MVRV Z-Score normalizes the capitalization gap. TLAP estimates standard deviation on an expanding window, so the result is not directly comparable with services that use full-history σ; the first 365 days are not published.

The percentile is the share of all daily MVRV readings at or below the current value. Historical zones describe a risk regime and are not a standalone buy or sell signal.

The historical series comes from Coin Metrics Community Data; recent values come from the BTCFunk public API and are calibrated over the latest 30-day overlap. BTC price has a separate calibration factor.

What does Bitcoin MVRV show?

It compares market capitalization with realized capitalization: the current network valuation against an approximation of aggregate holder cost basis.

What is the MVRV Z-Score?

It is the normalized difference between market and realized capitalization using an expanding estimate of standard deviation.

Which MVRV values indicate an overheating zone?

The 3–3.5 range is classified as overheating; readings above 3.5 are a higher-risk euphoria zone.

Related tools

What MVRV is

MVRV is Bitcoin market capitalization divided by realized capitalization. Realized cap values each coin at its last-movement price and therefore approximates the network's aggregate cost basis. A value below 1 means market cap fell below realized cap; high values reflect large unrealized holder profits.

MVRV Z-Score and percentile

MVRV Z-Score normalizes the gap between market and realized capitalization by market-cap standard deviation. TLAP uses an expanding window and does not publish the statistically unstable first 365 days. The percentile is the share of daily MVRV readings at or below the current value.

A market regime, not an entry point

Historical zones help compare current valuation with past cycles, but they cannot pinpoint an exact top or bottom. Extreme regimes may persist, and on-chain data providers use different methodologies. The historical series comes from Coin Metrics Community Data; recent values come from the BTCFunk public API after calibration over a 30-day overlap. This page is informational and is not investment advice.

Compare MVRV with Bitcoin SOPR, Bitcoin NUPL, Pi Cycle Top, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart and the halving countdown. Agreement between independent contexts is more informative than one metric, but it still cannot guarantee a future result.