USDJPY: volatility and unusual movements
USDJPY: last closed candle 01/10, 16:00 UTC, price 157.83, hourly change +0.12%, no notable events over 24 h. Last event: 30/09, 01:00–02:00 UTC, down move -0.23%, M 2.4.
Updated
USDJPY — hourly moves and how rare they are, computed on closed TLAP candles. Below: the latest notable move with its stop and target plan, a 30-day feed of events with verified outcomes, a summary after similar moves split by direction, the distribution of hourly moves over a year, and the records of this instrument. The service never suggests a trade direction.
Latest notable move
Retraced after 3 h, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached.
In 70% of similar cases the price pulled up to 157.46 within the next 12 h, usually within 3 h. Over 24 h the 2 ATR target was reached more often than the 4 ATR stop (48% vs 22%).
Other stops and targets
| Level | Price and % | Range | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stop | 157.48 (+0.16%) | 1 ATR | 74% |
| Stop | 157.73 (+0.32%) | 2 ATR | 59% |
| Stop | 157.98 (+0.48%) | 3 ATR | 41% |
| Stop | 158.24 (+0.64%) | 4 ATR | 22% |
| Stop | 158.74 (+0.96%) | 6 ATR | 5% |
| Target | 156.73 (−0.32%) | 2 ATR | 48% |
| Target | 156.47 (−0.48%) | 3 ATR | 36% |
| Target | 156.22 (−0.64%) | 4 ATR | 27% |
| Target | 155.72 (−0.96%) | 6 ATR | 12% |
Position size
Similar moves
- Fri 25/09, 13:00–14:00 UTC · -0.30% · M 3.8 Retraced after 1 h, stop 4 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 7/24 h, last candle 140 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
- Fri 18/09, 14:00–15:00 UTC · -0.27% · M 1.8 retrace unconfirmed, stop 4 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 6/24 h, last candle 308 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
- Tue 08/09, 01:00–02:00 UTC · -0.29% · M 2.5 Retraced after 3 h, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR not reached.
- Thu 03/09, 23:00–00:00 UTC · -0.31% · M 2.2 Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 21/24 h, last candle 644 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
- Thu 03/09, 02:00–03:00 UTC · -0.30% · M 2.3 Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached.
Last 30 days 14 24-h outcomes with M ≥ 3 · 9 with complete data
| Time | Instrument | Movement | M | Recommendation | Outcome | Retracement | Stop | Target | Max. favourable / adverse | +24 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09, 10:00–11:00 UTC | USDJPY | ▼ -0.30% | 4.5 | after a down move · stop 4 ATR · target 2 ATR | Retraced after 3 h, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached. | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 3.4 / 1.9 ATR | +0.41× |
| 28/09, 14:00–15:00 UTC | USDJPY | ▲ +0.26% | 3.7 | after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR | Retraced after 2 h, stop 3 ATR survived, target 2 ATR not reached. | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | 0.6 / 2.1 ATR | +0.05× |
| 28/09, 00:00–01:00 UTC | USDJPY | ▲ +0.24% | 3.6 | after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR | Retraced after 6 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR not reached. | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | 0.2 / 4.7 ATR | -1.19× |
| 27/09, 22:00–23:00 UTC | USDJPY | ▲ +0.20% | 3.5 | after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR | Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR not reached. | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | 0.9 / 4.3 ATR | -0.73× |
| 25/09, 13:00–14:00 UTC | USDJPY | ▼ -0.30% | 3.8 | after a down move · stop 4 ATR · target 2 ATR | Retraced after 1 h, stop 4 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 7/24 h, last candle 140 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed. | ✓ | ? | ? | 0.3 / 1.8 ATR | -0.57× |
| 22/09, 08:00–09:00 UTC | USDJPY | ▼ -0.36% | 3.9 | after a down move · stop 4 ATR · target 2 ATR | Retraced after 7 h, stop 4 ATR hit, target 2 ATR reached. | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | 2.1 / 4.2 ATR | -1.25× |
| 18/09, 07:00–08:00 UTC | USDJPY | ▲ +0.40% | 3.2 | after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR | Retraced after 7 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 13/24 h, last candle 308 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed. | ✓ | ? | ? | 1.9 / 3.0 ATR | -0.95× |
| 18/09, 02:00–03:00 UTC | USDJPY | ▲ +0.27% | 3.0 | after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR | Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 18/24 h, last candle 308 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed. | ✗ | ? | ✓ | 6.0 / 0.6 ATR | +0.59× |
| 16/09, 18:00–19:00 UTC | USDJPY | ▲ +0.60% | 4.7 | after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR | Retraced after 18 h, stop 3 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached. | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 2.2 / 2.9 ATR | +0.12× |
| 11/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC | USDJPY | ▼ -0.37% | 3.7 | after a down move · stop 4 ATR · target 2 ATR | Retraced after 5 h, stop 4 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 8/24 h, last candle 476 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed. | ✓ | ? | ? | 0.9 / 1.2 ATR | -0.22× |
| 08/09, 18:00–19:00 UTC | USDJPY | ▼ -0.41% | 3.1 | after a down move · stop 4 ATR · target 2 ATR | Retraced after 1 h, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR not reached. | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | 2.0 / 1.3 ATR | 0.00× |
| 07/09, 08:00–09:00 UTC | USDJPY | ▼ -0.70% | 5.9 | after a down move · stop 4 ATR · target 2 ATR | Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached. | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | 4.5 / 1.0 ATR | +0.27× |
| 04/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC | USDJPY | ▼ -0.37% | 3.4 | after a down move · stop 4 ATR · target 2 ATR | Retraced after 1 h, stop 4 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 8/24 h, last candle 644 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed. | ✓ | ? | ? | 0.6 / 1.8 ATR | -0.95× |
| 02/09, 13:00–14:00 UTC | USDJPY | ▼ -0.64% | 5.7 | after a down move · stop 4 ATR · target 2 ATR | Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached. | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | 15.6 / 2.2 ATR | +3.13× |
After similar moves every event of this instrument in that direction, on closed candles
| Measure | After an up move | After a down move |
|---|---|---|
| Events in history | 98 | 139 |
| Midpoint retracement within 12 h | 69% | 70% |
| A 3 ATR stop survived | 62% | 62% |
| A 2 ATR target was reached | 42% | 49% |
Distribution of hourly moves absolute change over 365 days · 6227 hours
A median hour moves the price by 0.04%, two percent of hours go beyond 0.24%, and the largest hour of the year moved 1.97%. The current ATR(24) is 0.16%.
Records of this instrument the rarest hourly move of each period by magnitude
| Week | Month | Year | Calm and its rank this year |
|---|---|---|---|
| M 4.5 -0.30% Tue 29/09, 10:00 | — | M 8.4 -1.97% Thu 30/07, 13:00 | 54 trading h #28 of 56 |
Instrument questions
What is the stop for the latest USDJPY hourly event?
For the latest USDJPY event, the plan's stop is 157.73 (4 ATR(24)) from the 156.77 close. This level belongs to that event; it is not a standing stop for the instrument.
What is USDJPY's usual hourly volatility?
Over 365 days, USDJPY's median absolute hourly move was 0.04%; p98 was 0.24%. These are closed hourly candle moves, not a forecast.
What was USDJPY's largest move this year?
USDJPY's largest hourly move in the Moscow calendar year: 30/07/2026 13:00 UTC, -1.97% (M 8.4).
Latest events
Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.