USDJPY rose 0.40% in one hour on 18/09/2026 — what followed

USDJPY: event 18/09, 07:00–08:00 UTC, up move +0.40%, magnitude 3.2, ATR(24) 0.19%.

Updated 19/09/2026, 08:00 UTC

Recorded event and its outcomecompleted

3.2M

rare

USDJPY ▲ Rise

Forex · largest in 2 d · 2.1×ATR

#109 hourly move of USDJPY in 2 years

+0.40%

hour Fri 18/09, 07:00–08:00 UTC · 157.49

Elapsed 322 hretraced to the midpoint after 7 h — planned entryfavourable 1.9 ATR · against 3.0 ATR

Retraced after 7 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 13/24 h, last candle 309 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.

No rush: in 66% of similar cases the price returned to the midpoint of the move (157.17).

In 66% of similar cases the price pulled down to 157.17 within the next 12 h, usually within 3 h. Over 24 h the 2 ATR target was reached more often than the 3 ATR stop (40% vs 36%).

normal hour 0.19%this movement 0.40%

Levels from statistics · after an up move from 157.49

Stop156.58 (−0.58%) 3 ATRhit in 36% of similar cases

No reliable target158.09 (+0.38%) 2 ATRthe nearest target was reached in only 40% of similar cases

ATR is the normal hourly range; now 0.19% ≈ 0.30. History: 85 similar movements, without lookahead.

Other stops and targets

Level	Price and %	Range	Probability
Stop	157.19 (−0.19%)	1 ATR	75%
Stop	156.88 (−0.38%)	2 ATR	60%
Stop	156.58 (−0.58%)	3 ATR	36%
Stop	156.28 (−0.77%)	4 ATR	21%
Stop	155.67 (−1.15%)	6 ATR	6%
Target	158.09 (+0.38%)	2 ATR	40%
Target	158.40 (+0.58%)	3 ATR	26%
Target	158.70 (+0.77%)	4 ATR	15%
Target	159.30 (+1.15%)	6 ATR	5%

Position size

Account currencyAccount, ₽Risk per trade, %

At 1% risk of 100,000 ₽ — size ≈ 0.0208 lots, stop loss 1,000 ₽, distance to the stop 0.91 (0.58%).

Volume calculated from your account and risk inputs. Not a recommendation.

Similar moves

Mon 28/09, 14:00–15:00 UTC · +0.26% · M 3.7 Retraced after 2 h, stop 3 ATR survived, target 2 ATR not reached.
Fri 18/09, 03:00–04:00 UTC · +0.26% · M 0.6 Retraced after 3 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 17/24 h, last candle 309 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Fri 18/09, 02:00–03:00 UTC · +0.27% · M 3.0 Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 18/24 h, last candle 309 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Wed 09/09, 08:00–09:00 UTC · +0.35% · M 2.4 Retraced after 3 h, stop 3 ATR survived, target 2 ATR not reached.
Tue 08/09, 06:00–07:00 UTC · +0.30% · M 2.7 Retraced after 12 h, stop 3 ATR survived, target 2 ATR not reached.

Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.