USDJPY fell 0.37% in one hour on 04/09/2026 — what followed

USDJPY: event 04/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC, down move -0.37%, magnitude 3.4, ATR(24) 0.21%.

Updated 05/09/2026, 13:00 UTC

Recorded event and its outcomecompleted

3.4M

rare

USDJPY ▼ Fall

Forex · largest in 2 d · 1.7×ATR

#123 hourly move of USDJPY in 2 years

-0.37%

hour Fri 04/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC · 155.68

Elapsed 653 hretraced to the midpoint after 1 h — planned entryfavourable 0.6 ATR · against 1.8 ATR

Retraced after 1 h, stop 4 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 8/24 h, last candle 645 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.

No rush: in 72% of similar cases the price returned to the midpoint of the move (155.97).

In 72% of similar cases the price pulled up to 155.97 within the next 12 h, usually within 3 h. Over 24 h the 2 ATR target was reached more often than the 4 ATR stop (49% vs 24%).

normal hour 0.21%this movement 0.37%

Levels from statistics · after a down move from 155.68

Stop157.02 (+0.86%) 4 ATRhit in 24% of similar cases

No reliable target155.01 (−0.43%) 2 ATRthe nearest target was reached in only 49% of similar cases

ATR is the normal hourly range; now 0.21% ≈ 0.33. History: 116 similar movements, without lookahead.

Other stops and targets

Level	Price and %	Range	Probability
Stop	156.02 (+0.21%)	1 ATR	77%
Stop	156.35 (+0.43%)	2 ATR	63%
Stop	156.69 (+0.65%)	3 ATR	44%
Stop	157.02 (+0.86%)	4 ATR	24%
Stop	157.69 (+1.29%)	6 ATR	7%
Target	155.01 (−0.43%)	2 ATR	49%
Target	154.68 (−0.65%)	3 ATR	36%
Target	154.34 (−0.86%)	4 ATR	28%
Target	153.67 (−1.29%)	6 ATR	14%

Position size

Account currencyAccount, ₽Risk per trade, %

At 1% risk of 100,000 ₽ — size ≈ 0.0141 lots, stop loss 1,000 ₽, distance to the stop 1.34 (0.86%).

Volume calculated from your account and risk inputs. Not a recommendation.

Similar moves

Tue 22/09, 08:00–09:00 UTC · -0.36% · M 3.9 Retraced after 7 h, stop 4 ATR hit, target 2 ATR reached.
Fri 18/09, 15:00–16:00 UTC · -0.36% · M 1.9 retrace unconfirmed, stop 4 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 5/24 h, last candle 309 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Fri 11/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC · -0.37% · M 3.7 Retraced after 5 h, stop 4 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 8/24 h, last candle 477 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Tue 08/09, 18:00–19:00 UTC · -0.41% · M 3.1 Retraced after 1 h, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR not reached.
Thu 03/09, 23:00–00:00 UTC · -0.31% · M 2.2 Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 21/24 h, last candle 645 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.

Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.