USDJPY fell 0.36% in one hour on 18/09/2026 — what followed

USDJPY: event 18/09, 15:00–16:00 UTC, down move -0.36%, magnitude 1.9, ATR(24) 0.23%.

Updated 19/09/2026, 16:00 UTC

Recorded event and its outcomecompleted

1.9M

noticeable

USDJPY ▼ Fall

Forex · largest in 1 d · 1.6×ATR

#135 hourly move of USDJPY in 2 years

-0.36%

hour Fri 18/09, 15:00–16:00 UTC · 156.88

Elapsed 315 hretrace unconfirmed: limited datafavourable 0.8 ATR · against 0.1 ATR

retrace unconfirmed, stop 4 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 5/24 h, last candle 310 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.

No rush: in 70% of similar cases the price returned to the midpoint of the move (157.16).

In 70% of similar cases the price pulled up to 157.16 within the next 12 h, usually within 3 h. Over 24 h the 2 ATR target was reached more often than the 4 ATR stop (48% vs 23%).

normal hour 0.23%this movement 0.36%

Levels from statistics · after a down move from 156.88

Stop158.31 (+0.91%) 4 ATRhit in 23% of similar cases

No reliable target156.16 (−0.46%) 2 ATRthe nearest target was reached in only 48% of similar cases

ATR is the normal hourly range; now 0.23% ≈ 0.36. History: 125 similar movements, without lookahead.

Other stops and targets

Level	Price and %	Range	Probability
Stop	157.23 (+0.23%)	1 ATR	76%
Stop	157.59 (+0.46%)	2 ATR	61%
Stop	157.95 (+0.68%)	3 ATR	43%
Stop	158.31 (+0.91%)	4 ATR	23%
Stop	159.02 (+1.37%)	6 ATR	6%
Target	156.16 (−0.46%)	2 ATR	48%
Target	155.80 (−0.68%)	3 ATR	36%
Target	155.44 (−0.91%)	4 ATR	27%
Target	154.73 (−1.37%)	6 ATR	13%

Position size

Account currencyAccount, ₽Risk per trade, %

At 1% risk of 100,000 ₽ — size ≈ 0.0132 lots, stop loss 1,000 ₽, distance to the stop 1.43 (0.91%).

Volume calculated from your account and risk inputs. Not a recommendation.

Similar moves

Tue 22/09, 08:00–09:00 UTC · -0.36% · M 3.9 Retraced after 7 h, stop 4 ATR hit, target 2 ATR reached.
Fri 11/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC · -0.37% · M 3.7 Retraced after 5 h, stop 4 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 8/24 h, last candle 478 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Tue 08/09, 18:00–19:00 UTC · -0.41% · M 3.1 Retraced after 1 h, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR not reached.
Fri 04/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC · -0.37% · M 3.4 Retraced after 1 h, stop 4 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 8/24 h, last candle 646 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Thu 03/09, 23:00–00:00 UTC · -0.31% · M 2.2 Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 21/24 h, last candle 646 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.

Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.