USDJPY fell 0.30% in one hour on 29/09/2026 — what followed
USDJPY: event 29/09, 10:00–11:00 UTC, down move -0.30%, magnitude 4.5, ATR(24) 0.16%.
Updated
Recorded event and its outcomecompleted
4.5M
rareUSDJPY ▼ Fall
Forex · largest in 7 d · 1.9×ATR
#232 hourly move of USDJPY in 2 years
-0.30%
hour Tue 29/09, 10:00–11:00 UTC · 157.23
Elapsed 55 htarget reached in hour 15The provider later revised USDJPY data for this hour; this card shows the values at publication, as in Telegram.favourable 3.4 ATR · against 1.9 ATR
Retraced after 3 h, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached.
No rush: in 70% of similar cases the price returned to the midpoint of the move (157.46).
In 70% of similar cases the price pulled up to 157.46 within the next 12 h, usually within 3 h. Over 24 h the 2 ATR target was reached more often than the 4 ATR stop (48% vs 22%).
normal hour 0.16%this movement 0.30%
Levels from statistics · after a down move from 157.23
Stop158.24 (+0.64%) 4 ATRhit in 22% of similar cases
No reliable target156.73 (−0.32%) 2 ATRthe nearest target was reached in only 48% of similar cases
ATR is the normal hourly range; now 0.16% ≈ 0.25. History: 135 similar movements, without lookahead.
Other stops and targets
| Level | Price and % | Range | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stop | 157.48 (+0.16%) | 1 ATR | 74% |
| Stop | 157.73 (+0.32%) | 2 ATR | 59% |
| Stop | 157.98 (+0.48%) | 3 ATR | 41% |
| Stop | 158.24 (+0.64%) | 4 ATR | 22% |
| Stop | 158.74 (+0.96%) | 6 ATR | 5% |
| Target | 156.73 (−0.32%) | 2 ATR | 48% |
| Target | 156.47 (−0.48%) | 3 ATR | 36% |
| Target | 156.22 (−0.64%) | 4 ATR | 27% |
| Target | 155.72 (−0.96%) | 6 ATR | 12% |
Position size
At 1% risk of 100,000 ₽ — size ≈ 0.0188 lots, stop loss 1,000 ₽, distance to the stop 1.01 (0.64%).
Volume calculated from your account and risk inputs. Not a recommendation.
Similar moves
- Fri 25/09, 13:00–14:00 UTC · -0.30% · M 3.8 Retraced after 1 h, stop 4 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 7/24 h, last candle 141 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
- Fri 18/09, 14:00–15:00 UTC · -0.27% · M 1.8 retrace unconfirmed, stop 4 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 6/24 h, last candle 309 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
- Tue 08/09, 01:00–02:00 UTC · -0.29% · M 2.5 Retraced after 3 h, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR not reached.
- Thu 03/09, 23:00–00:00 UTC · -0.31% · M 2.2 Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 21/24 h, last candle 645 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
- Thu 03/09, 02:00–03:00 UTC · -0.30% · M 2.3 Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached.
Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.