USDJPY fell 0.30% in one hour on 03/09/2026 — what followed
USDJPY: event 03/09, 02:00–03:00 UTC, down move -0.30%, magnitude 2.3, ATR(24) 0.18%.
Updated
Recorded event and its outcomecompleted
2.3M
noticeableUSDJPY ▼ Fall
Forex · largest in 1 d · 1.7×ATR
#234 hourly move of USDJPY in 2 years
-0.30%
hour Thu 03/09, 02:00–03:00 UTC · 158.03
Elapsed 687 htarget reached in hour 3favourable 9.6 ATR · against 0.0 ATR
Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached.
No rush: in 73% of similar cases the price returned to the midpoint of the move (158.26).
In 73% of similar cases the price pulled up to 158.26 within the next 12 h, usually within 3 h. Over 24 h the 2 ATR target was reached more often than the 4 ATR stop (48% vs 25%).
normal hour 0.18%this movement 0.30%
Levels from statistics · after a down move from 158.03
Stop159.17 (+0.72%) 4 ATRhit in 25% of similar cases
No reliable target157.46 (−0.36%) 2 ATRthe nearest target was reached in only 48% of similar cases
ATR is the normal hourly range; now 0.18% ≈ 0.28. History: 114 similar movements, without lookahead.
Other stops and targets
| Level | Price and % | Range | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stop | 158.31 (+0.18%) | 1 ATR | 77% |
| Stop | 158.60 (+0.36%) | 2 ATR | 63% |
| Stop | 158.88 (+0.54%) | 3 ATR | 45% |
| Stop | 159.17 (+0.72%) | 4 ATR | 25% |
| Stop | 159.74 (+1.08%) | 6 ATR | 7% |
| Target | 157.46 (−0.36%) | 2 ATR | 48% |
| Target | 157.17 (−0.54%) | 3 ATR | 35% |
| Target | 156.89 (−0.72%) | 4 ATR | 27% |
| Target | 156.32 (−1.08%) | 6 ATR | 12% |
Position size
At 1% risk of 100,000 ₽ — size ≈ 0.0166 lots, stop loss 1,000 ₽, distance to the stop 1.14 (0.72%).
Volume calculated from your account and risk inputs. Not a recommendation.
Similar moves
- Tue 29/09, 10:00–11:00 UTC · -0.30% · M 4.5 Retraced after 3 h, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached.
- Fri 25/09, 13:00–14:00 UTC · -0.30% · M 3.8 Retraced after 1 h, stop 4 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 7/24 h, last candle 141 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
- Fri 18/09, 14:00–15:00 UTC · -0.27% · M 1.8 retrace unconfirmed, stop 4 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 6/24 h, last candle 309 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
- Tue 08/09, 01:00–02:00 UTC · -0.29% · M 2.5 Retraced after 3 h, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR not reached.
- Thu 03/09, 23:00–00:00 UTC · -0.31% · M 2.2 Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 21/24 h, last candle 645 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.