XRP: volatility and unusual movements

XRP: last closed candle 01/10, 16:00 UTC, price 1.4814, hourly change -0.38%, no notable events over 24 h. Last event: 29/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC, up move +2.06%, M 2.7.

Updated 01/10/2026, 17:20 UTC

XRP — hourly moves and how rare they are, computed on closed TLAP candles. Below: the latest notable move with its stop and target plan, a 30-day feed of events with verified outcomes, a summary after similar moves split by direction, the distribution of hourly moves over a year, and the records of this instrument. The service never suggests a trade direction.

Latest notable move

XRPcompleted

2.7M

noticeable

XRP ▲ Rise

Crypto · largest in 1 d · 1.5×ATR

#622 hourly move of XRP in 2 years

+2.06%

hour Tue 29/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC · 1.5485

Elapsed 52 hstop hitThe provider later revised XRP data for this hour; this card shows the values at publication, as in Telegram.favourable 0.6 ATR · against 3.4 ATR

Retraced after 3 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 3 ATR not reached.

No rush: in 66% of similar cases the price returned to the midpoint of the move (1.5326).

In 66% of similar cases the price pulled down to 1.5326 within the next 12 h, usually within 1 h. Over 24 h the 3 ATR target was reached more often than the 3 ATR stop (51% vs 24%).

normal hour 1.36%this movement 2.06%

Levels from statistics · after an up move from 1.5485

Stop1.4854 (−4.07%) 3 ATRhit in 24% of similar cases

Target1.6116 (+4.07%) 3 ATRreached in 51% of similar cases

ATR is the normal hourly range; now 1.36% ≈ 0.0210. History: 172 similar movements, without lookahead.

Other stops and targets

Level	Price and %	Range	Probability
Stop	1.5275 (−1.36%)	1 ATR	69%
Stop	1.5064 (−2.72%)	2 ATR	43%
Stop	1.4854 (−4.07%)	3 ATR	24%
Stop	1.4644 (−5.43%)	4 ATR	14%
Stop	1.4223 (−8.15%)	6 ATR	4%
Target	1.5906 (+2.72%)	2 ATR	62%
Target	1.6116 (+4.07%)	3 ATR	51%
Target	1.6326 (+5.43%)	4 ATR	39%
Target	1.6747 (+8.15%)	6 ATR	27%

Position size

Account currencyAccount, ₽Risk per trade, %

At 1% risk of 100,000 ₽ — size ≈ 190 XRP, stop loss 1,000 ₽, distance to the stop 0.0631 (4.07%).

Volume calculated from your account and risk inputs. Not a recommendation.

Similar moves

Mon 28/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC · +1.98% · M 3.7 Retraced after 2 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 3 ATR not reached.
Fri 25/09, 11:00–12:00 UTC · +2.22% · M 3.3 Retraced after 3 h, stop 3 ATR survived, target 3 ATR not reached.
Mon 21/09, 08:00–09:00 UTC · +2.60% · M 3.7 Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR survived, target 3 ATR reached.
Fri 18/09, 13:00–14:00 UTC · +2.80% · M 3.7 Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR survived, target 3 ATR reached.
Wed 09/09, 04:00–05:00 UTC · +1.38% · M 4.1 Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 3 ATR not reached.

Last 30 days 14 24-h outcomes with M ≥ 3 · 14 with complete data

Midpoint retracement

71%

over a day

Stop survived

57%

recommended level

Target reached

43%

recommended level

Broad movements

64%

several instruments in one hour

Time	Instrument	Movement	M	Recommendation	Outcome	Retracement	Stop	Target	Max. favourable / adverse	+24 h
28/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC	XRP	▲ +1.98%	3.7	after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 3 ATR	Retraced after 2 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 3 ATR not reached.	✓	✗	✗	1.9 / 3.2 ATR	+0.81×
25/09, 11:00–12:00 UTC	XRP	▲ +2.22%	3.3	after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 3 ATR	Retraced after 3 h, stop 3 ATR survived, target 3 ATR not reached.	✓	✓	✗	1.8 / 2.5 ATR	-1.26×
23/09, 14:00–15:00 UTC	XRP	▼ -2.99%	4.6	after a down move · stop 4 ATR · target 2 ATR	Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached.	✗	✓	✓	2.8 / 0.3 ATR	+0.64×
22/09, 13:00–14:00 UTC	XRP	▲ +2.96%	4.4	after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 3 ATR	Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR survived, target 3 ATR not reached.	✓	✓	✗	2.7 / 2.1 ATR	-0.28×
21/09, 08:00–09:00 UTC	XRP	▲ +2.60%	3.7	after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 3 ATR	Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR survived, target 3 ATR reached.	✗	✓	✓	5.8 / 0.4 ATR	+1.84×
20/09, 02:00–03:00 UTC	XRP	▼ -2.11%	3.1	after a down move · stop 4 ATR · target 2 ATR	Retraced after 1 h, stop 4 ATR hit, target 2 ATR not reached.	✓	✗	✗	0.2 / 4.4 ATR	-1.56×
18/09, 14:00–15:00 UTC	XRP	▲ +2.87%	3.7	after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 3 ATR	Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR survived, target 3 ATR reached.	✓	✓	✓	3.7 / 2.0 ATR	+0.94×
18/09, 13:00–14:00 UTC	XRP	▲ +2.80%	3.7	after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 3 ATR	Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR survived, target 3 ATR reached.	✗	✓	✓	6.6 / 0.0 ATR	+2.00×
15/09, 18:00–19:00 UTC	XRP	▼ -5.69%	5.5	after a down move · stop 4 ATR · target 2 ATR	Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached.	✗	✓	✓	3.6 / 0.2 ATR	+0.62×
14/09, 18:00–19:00 UTC	XRP	▲ +2.97%	3.8	after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 3 ATR	Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 3 ATR not reached.	✓	✗	✗	1.1 / 11.3 ATR	-3.46×
11/09, 13:00–14:00 UTC	XRP	▲ +3.60%	4.6	after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 3 ATR	Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 3 ATR not reached.	✓	✗	✗	1.2 / 4.6 ATR	-0.94×
11/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC	XRP	▲ +2.84%	4.5	after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 3 ATR	Retraced after 7 h, stop 3 ATR survived, target 3 ATR reached.	✓	✓	✓	5.3 / 1.6 ATR	+0.09×
09/09, 04:00–05:00 UTC	XRP	▲ +1.38%	4.1	after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 3 ATR	Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 3 ATR not reached.	✓	✗	✗	0.7 / 4.4 ATR	-2.41×
03/09, 14:00–15:00 UTC	XRP	▲ +4.06%	4.9	after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 3 ATR	Retraced after 22 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 3 ATR not reached.	✓	✗	✗	2.1 / 4.3 ATR	-1.04×

After similar moves every event of this instrument in that direction, on closed candles

Measure	After an up move	After a down move
Events in history	173	138
Midpoint retracement within 12 h	67%	85%
A 3 ATR stop survived	76%	54%
A 2 ATR target was reached	61%	37%

Distribution of hourly moves absolute change over 365 days · 8761 hours

A median hour moves the price by 0.29%, two percent of hours go beyond 2.03%, and the largest hour of the year moved 8.11%. The current ATR(24) is 0.79%.

Records of this instrument the rarest hourly move of each period by magnitude

Week	Month	Year	Calm and its rank this year
M 3.7 +1.98% Mon 28/09, 12:00	—	M 8.2 -8.11% Sat 22/08, 05:00	76 h #36 of 66

Instrument questions

What is the stop for the latest XRP hourly event?

For the latest XRP event, the plan's stop is 1.4854 (3 ATR(24)) from the 1.5485 close. This level belongs to that event; it is not a standing stop for the instrument.

What is XRP's usual hourly volatility?

Over 365 days, XRP's median absolute hourly move was 0.29%; p98 was 2.03%. These are closed hourly candle moves, not a forecast.

What was XRP's largest move this year?

XRP's largest hourly move in the Moscow calendar year: 22/08/2026 05:00 UTC, -8.11% (M 8.2).

Latest events

Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.