WTI fell 4.69% in one hour on 18/09/2026 — what followed

WTI: event 18/09, 07:00–08:00 UTC, down move -4.69%, magnitude 6.1, ATR(24) 1.01%.

Updated 19/09/2026, 08:00 UTC

Recorded event and its outcomecompleted

6.1M

very rare

WTI ▼ Fall

Oil · largest in 45 d · 4.7×ATR

#13 hourly move of WTI in 2 years

-4.69%

hour Fri 18/09, 07:00–08:00 UTC · 95.33

Elapsed 322 hretraced to the midpoint after 6 h — planned entryfavourable 0.2 ATR · against 2.8 ATR

Retraced after 6 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 13/24 h, last candle 309 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.

No rush: in 75% of similar cases the price returned to the midpoint of the move (97.57).

In 75% of similar cases the price pulled up to 97.57 within the next 12 h, usually within 2 h. Over 24 h the 2 ATR target was reached more often than the 3 ATR stop (51% vs 36%).

normal hour 1.01%this movement 4.69%

Levels from statistics · after a down move from 95.33

Stop98.21 (+3.02%) 3 ATRhit in 36% of similar cases

Target93.41 (−2.01%) 2 ATRreached in 51% of similar cases

ATR is the normal hourly range; now 1.01% ≈ 0.96. History: 205 similar movements, without lookahead.

Other stops and targets

Level	Price and %	Range	Probability
Stop	96.29 (+1.01%)	1 ATR	78%
Stop	97.25 (+2.01%)	2 ATR	55%
Stop	98.21 (+3.02%)	3 ATR	36%
Stop	99.17 (+4.03%)	4 ATR	26%
Stop	101.09 (+6.04%)	6 ATR	11%
Target	93.41 (−2.01%)	2 ATR	51%
Target	92.45 (−3.02%)	3 ATR	31%
Target	91.49 (−4.03%)	4 ATR	18%
Target	89.57 (−6.04%)	6 ATR	9%

Position size

Account currencyAccount, ₽Risk per trade, %

At 1% risk of 100,000 ₽ — size ≈ 0.00416 lots, stop loss 1,000 ₽, distance to the stop 2.88 (3.02%).

Volume calculated from your account and risk inputs. Not a recommendation.

Similar moves

03:00–04:00 UTC · -1.26% · M 3.6 Observation continues; result after 24 h.
Mon 28/09, 16:00–17:00 UTC · -2.02% · M 4.0 Retraced after 11 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 49 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Thu 24/09, 16:00–17:00 UTC · -1.96% · M 3.5 Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 145 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Tue 22/09, 08:00–09:00 UTC · -3.24% · M 4.0 Retraced after 8 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 201 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Mon 14/09, 16:00–17:00 UTC · -1.72% · M 2.6 Retraced after 8 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 385 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.

Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.