WTI fell 1.26% in one hour on 01/10/2026 — what followed
WTI: event 01/10, 03:00–04:00 UTC, down move -1.26%, magnitude 3.6, ATR(24) 0.76%.
Updated
Recorded event and its outcome
3.6M
rareWTI ▼ Fall
Oil · largest in 3 d · 1.7×ATR
-1.26%
hour 03:00–04:00 UTC · 89.14
Elapsed 14 hstop hitThe provider is not returning the WTI candle; the publication snapshot is preserved.favourable 0.5 ATR · against 5.6 ATR
Observation continues; result after 24 h.
No rush: in 76% of similar cases the price returned to the midpoint of the move (89.70).
In 76% of similar cases the price pulled up to 89.70 within the next 12 h, usually within 2 h. Over 24 h the 2 ATR target was reached more often than the 3 ATR stop (51% vs 35%).
normal hour 0.76%this movement 1.26%
Levels from statistics · after a down move from 89.14
Stop91.18 (+2.29%) 3 ATRhit in 35% of similar cases
Target87.78 (−1.53%) 2 ATRreached in 51% of similar cases
ATR is the normal hourly range; now 0.76% ≈ 0.68. History: 205 similar movements, without lookahead.
Other stops and targets
| Level | Price and % | Range | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stop | 89.82 (+0.76%) | 1 ATR | 78% |
| Stop | 90.50 (+1.53%) | 2 ATR | 54% |
| Stop | 91.18 (+2.29%) | 3 ATR | 35% |
| Stop | 91.86 (+3.05%) | 4 ATR | 26% |
| Stop | 93.22 (+4.58%) | 6 ATR | 11% |
| Target | 87.78 (−1.53%) | 2 ATR | 51% |
| Target | 87.10 (−2.29%) | 3 ATR | 30% |
| Target | 86.42 (−3.05%) | 4 ATR | 18% |
| Target | 85.06 (−4.58%) | 6 ATR | 9% |
Position size
At 1% risk of 100,000 ₽ — size ≈ 0.00587 lots, stop loss 1,000 ₽, distance to the stop 2.04 (2.29%).
Volume calculated from your account and risk inputs. Not a recommendation.
Similar moves
- Mon 28/09, 16:00–17:00 UTC · -2.02% · M 4.0 Retraced after 11 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 49 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
- Thu 24/09, 16:00–17:00 UTC · -1.96% · M 3.5 Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 145 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
- Tue 22/09, 08:00–09:00 UTC · -3.24% · M 4.0 Retraced after 8 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 201 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
- Mon 14/09, 16:00–17:00 UTC · -1.72% · M 2.6 Retraced after 8 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 385 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
- Fri 11/09, 04:00–05:00 UTC · -0.86% · M 1.4 Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 16/24 h, last candle 477 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.