WTI fell 2.02% in one hour on 28/09/2026 — what followed

WTI: event 28/09, 16:00–17:00 UTC, down move -2.02%, magnitude 4.0, ATR(24) 1.14%.

Updated 29/09/2026, 17:00 UTC

Recorded event and its outcomecompleted

4.0M

rare

WTI ▼ Fall

Oil · largest in 4 d · 1.8×ATR

#119 hourly move of WTI in 2 years

-2.02%

hour Mon 28/09, 16:00–17:00 UTC · 93.10

Elapsed 73 htarget reached in hour 19favourable 2.9 ATR · against 1.6 ATR

Retraced after 11 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 49 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.

No rush: in 75% of similar cases the price returned to the midpoint of the move (94.04).

In 75% of similar cases the price pulled up to 94.04 within the next 12 h, usually within 2 h. Over 24 h the 2 ATR target was reached more often than the 3 ATR stop (51% vs 35%).

normal hour 1.14%this movement 2.02%

Levels from statistics · after a down move from 93.10

Stop96.27 (+3.41%) 3 ATRhit in 35% of similar cases

Target90.99 (−2.27%) 2 ATRreached in 51% of similar cases

ATR is the normal hourly range; now 1.14% ≈ 1.06. History: 205 similar movements, without lookahead.

Other stops and targets

Level	Price and %	Range	Probability
Stop	94.16 (+1.14%)	1 ATR	78%
Stop	95.21 (+2.27%)	2 ATR	55%
Stop	96.27 (+3.41%)	3 ATR	35%
Stop	97.33 (+4.54%)	4 ATR	26%
Stop	99.44 (+6.81%)	6 ATR	11%
Target	90.99 (−2.27%)	2 ATR	51%
Target	89.93 (−3.41%)	3 ATR	30%
Target	88.87 (−4.54%)	4 ATR	18%
Target	86.76 (−6.81%)	6 ATR	9%

Position size

Account currencyAccount, ₽Risk per trade, %

At 1% risk of 100,000 ₽ — size ≈ 0.00378 lots, stop loss 1,000 ₽, distance to the stop 3.17 (3.41%).

Volume calculated from your account and risk inputs. Not a recommendation.

Similar moves

03:00–04:00 UTC · -1.26% · M 3.6 Observation continues; result after 24 h.
Thu 24/09, 16:00–17:00 UTC · -1.96% · M 3.5 Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 145 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Tue 22/09, 08:00–09:00 UTC · -3.24% · M 4.0 Retraced after 8 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 201 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Mon 14/09, 16:00–17:00 UTC · -1.72% · M 2.6 Retraced after 8 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 385 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Fri 11/09, 04:00–05:00 UTC · -0.86% · M 1.4 Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 16/24 h, last candle 477 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.

Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.