Gold: volatility and unusual movements

Gold: last closed candle 01/10, 16:00 UTC, price 4,162, hourly change -0.17%, no notable events over 24 h. Last event: 01/10, 04:00–05:00 UTC, up move +0.82%, M 3.6.

Updated 01/10/2026, 17:15 UTC

Gold — hourly moves and how rare they are, computed on closed TLAP candles. Below: the latest notable move with its stop and target plan, a 30-day feed of events with verified outcomes, a summary after similar moves split by direction, the distribution of hourly moves over a year, and the records of this instrument. The service never suggests a trade direction.

Latest notable move

Gold1 / 5

4.7M

rare

Gold ▼ Fall

Gold · largest in 9 d · 2.2×ATR

-0.95%

hour Wed 30/09, 17:00–18:00 UTC · 4,149

Elapsed 23 hretraced to the midpoint after 10 h — planned entryThe provider is not returning the Gold candle; the publication snapshot is preserved.favourable 0.6 ATR · against 2.5 ATR

Observation continues; result after 24 h.

No rush: in 79% of similar cases the price returned to the midpoint of the move (4,169).

In 79% of similar cases the price pulled up to 4,169 within the next 12 h, usually within 2 h. Over 24 h the 2 ATR target was reached more often than the 3 ATR stop (50% vs 36%).

normal hour 0.43%this movement 0.95%

Levels from statistics · after a down move from 4,149

Stop4,203 (+1.28%) 3 ATRhit in 36% of similar cases

Target4,114 (−0.86%) 2 ATRreached in 50% of similar cases

ATR is the normal hourly range; now 0.43% ≈ 18. History: 227 similar movements, without lookahead.

Other stops and targets

Level	Price and %	Range	Probability
Stop	4,167 (+0.43%)	1 ATR	78%
Stop	4,185 (+0.86%)	2 ATR	57%
Stop	4,203 (+1.28%)	3 ATR	36%
Stop	4,220 (+1.71%)	4 ATR	24%
Stop	4,256 (+2.57%)	6 ATR	8%
Target	4,114 (−0.86%)	2 ATR	50%
Target	4,096 (−1.28%)	3 ATR	38%
Target	4,078 (−1.71%)	4 ATR	26%
Target	4,043 (−2.57%)	6 ATR	14%

Position size

Account currencyAccount, ₽Risk per trade, %

At 1% risk of 100,000 ₽ — size ≈ 0.00225 lots, stop loss 1,000 ₽, distance to the stop 53 (1.28%).

Volume calculated from your account and risk inputs. Not a recommendation.

Similar moves

Mon 28/09, 03:00–04:00 UTC · -0.73% · M 4.4 Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 61 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Mon 28/09, 01:00–02:00 UTC · -1.14% · M 4.9 Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 63 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Mon 21/09, 07:00–08:00 UTC · -1.06% · M 4.1 Retraced after 4 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 225 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Thu 10/09, 20:00–21:00 UTC · -1.11% · M 3.3 Retraced after 9 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 476 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Fri 04/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC · -1.64% · M 5.2 Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 8/24 h, last candle 644 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.

Last 30 days 10 24-h outcomes with M ≥ 3 · 0 with complete data

Midpoint retracement

over a day

Stop survived

recommended level

Target reached

recommended level

Broad movements

several instruments in one hour

Time	Instrument	Movement	M	Recommendation	Outcome	Retracement	Stop	Target	Max. favourable / adverse	+24 h
30/09, 07:00–08:00 UTC	Gold	▲ +0.83%	3.2	after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR	Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 9 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.	✓	✗	?	0.0 / 5.6 ATR	-1.77×
30/09, 04:00–05:00 UTC	Gold	▲ +0.93%	3.2	after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR	Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 12 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.	✓	✗	?	0.5 / 4.4 ATR	-0.81×
28/09, 03:00–04:00 UTC	Gold	▼ -0.73%	4.4	after a down move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR	Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 61 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.	✗	?	✓	4.7 / 0.1 ATR	+2.13×
28/09, 01:00–02:00 UTC	Gold	▼ -1.14%	4.9	after a down move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR	Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 63 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.	✗	?	✓	5.5 / 0.1 ATR	+1.68×
21/09, 07:00–08:00 UTC	Gold	▼ -1.06%	4.1	after a down move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR	Retraced after 4 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 225 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.	✓	?	✓	2.3 / 1.6 ATR	+0.94×
16/09, 18:00–19:00 UTC	Gold	▼ -2.22%	7.2	after a down move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR	Retraced after 7 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 334 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.	✓	✗	?	1.4 / 6.0 ATR	-0.94×
16/09, 02:00–03:00 UTC	Gold	▲ +0.93%	3.4	after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR	Retraced after 16 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 350 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.	✓	✗	✓	3.2 / 5.6 ATR	-1.16×
10/09, 20:00–21:00 UTC	Gold	▼ -1.11%	3.3	after a down move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR	Retraced after 9 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 476 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.	✓	✗	?	1.2 / 4.1 ATR	-0.64×
09/09, 00:00–01:00 UTC	Gold	▲ +1.36%	4.1	after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR	Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 520 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.	✗	?	✓	3.5 / 0.6 ATR	+0.60×
04/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC	Gold	▼ -1.64%	5.2	after a down move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR	Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 8/24 h, last candle 644 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.	✓	?	?	1.4 / 2.8 ATR	-0.51×

After similar moves every event of this instrument in that direction, on closed candles

Measure	After an up move	After a down move
Events in history	197	227
Midpoint retracement within 12 h	74%	79%
A 3 ATR stop survived	67%	64%
A 2 ATR target was reached	49%	50%

Distribution of hourly moves absolute change over 365 days · 5951 hours

A median hour moves the price by 0.17%, two percent of hours go beyond 1.13%, and the largest hour of the year moved 5.65%. The current ATR(24) is 0.38%.

Records of this instrument the rarest hourly move of each period by magnitude

Week	Month	Year	Calm and its rank this year
—	—	M 8.2 -5.65% Thu 29/01, 15:00	193 trading h #7 of 81

Instrument questions

What is the stop for the latest Gold hourly event?

For the latest Gold event, the plan's stop is 4,157 (3 ATR(24)) from the 4,210 close. This level belongs to that event; it is not a standing stop for the instrument.

What is Gold's usual hourly volatility?

Over 365 days, Gold's median absolute hourly move was 0.17%; p98 was 1.13%. These are closed hourly candle moves, not a forecast.

What was Gold's largest move this year?

Gold's largest hourly move in the Moscow calendar year: 29/01/2026 15:00 UTC, -5.65% (M 8.2).

Latest events

Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.