Gold fell 0.95% in one hour on 30/09/2026 — what followed

Gold: event 30/09, 17:00–18:00 UTC, down move -0.95%, magnitude 4.7, ATR(24) 0.43%.

Updated 01/10/2026, 18:00 UTC

Recorded event and its outcomecompleted

4.7M

rare

Gold ▼ Fall

Gold · largest in 9 d · 2.2×ATR

-0.95%

hour Wed 30/09, 17:00–18:00 UTC · 4,149

Elapsed 24 hretraced to the midpoint after 10 h — planned entryThe provider is not returning the Gold candle; the publication snapshot is preserved.favourable 0.6 ATR · against 2.5 ATR

Retraced after 10 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 0 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.

No rush: in 79% of similar cases the price returned to the midpoint of the move (4,169).

In 79% of similar cases the price pulled up to 4,169 within the next 12 h, usually within 2 h. Over 24 h the 2 ATR target was reached more often than the 3 ATR stop (50% vs 36%).

normal hour 0.43%this movement 0.95%

Levels from statistics · after a down move from 4,149

Stop4,203 (+1.28%) 3 ATRhit in 36% of similar cases

Target4,114 (−0.86%) 2 ATRreached in 50% of similar cases

ATR is the normal hourly range; now 0.43% ≈ 18. History: 227 similar movements, without lookahead.

Other stops and targets

Level	Price and %	Range	Probability
Stop	4,167 (+0.43%)	1 ATR	78%
Stop	4,185 (+0.86%)	2 ATR	57%
Stop	4,203 (+1.28%)	3 ATR	36%
Stop	4,220 (+1.71%)	4 ATR	24%
Stop	4,256 (+2.57%)	6 ATR	8%
Target	4,114 (−0.86%)	2 ATR	50%
Target	4,096 (−1.28%)	3 ATR	38%
Target	4,078 (−1.71%)	4 ATR	26%
Target	4,043 (−2.57%)	6 ATR	14%

Position size

Account currencyAccount, ₽Risk per trade, %

At 1% risk of 100,000 ₽ — size ≈ 0.00225 lots, stop loss 1,000 ₽, distance to the stop 53 (1.28%).

Volume calculated from your account and risk inputs. Not a recommendation.

Similar moves

Mon 28/09, 03:00–04:00 UTC · -0.73% · M 4.4 Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 62 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Mon 28/09, 01:00–02:00 UTC · -1.14% · M 4.9 Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 64 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Mon 21/09, 07:00–08:00 UTC · -1.06% · M 4.1 Retraced after 4 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 226 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Thu 10/09, 20:00–21:00 UTC · -1.11% · M 3.3 Retraced after 9 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 477 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Fri 04/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC · -1.64% · M 5.2 Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 8/24 h, last candle 645 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.

Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.