Gold rose 0.63% in one hour on 30/09/2026 — what followed

Gold: event 30/09, 03:00–04:00 UTC, up move +0.63%, magnitude 2.0, ATR(24) 0.35%.

Updated 01/10/2026, 04:00 UTC

Recorded event and its outcomecompleted

2.0M

noticeable

Gold ▲ Rise

Gold · largest in 1 d · 1.8×ATR

+0.63%

hour Wed 30/09, 03:00–04:00 UTC · 4,206

Elapsed 38 hstop hitThe provider is not returning the Gold candle; the publication snapshot is preserved.favourable 0.9 ATR · against 4.5 ATR

Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 14 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.

No rush: in 74% of similar cases the price returned to the midpoint of the move (4,192).

In 74% of similar cases the price pulled down to 4,192 within the next 12 h, usually within 2 h. Over 24 h the 2 ATR target was reached more often than the 3 ATR stop (49% vs 33%).

normal hour 0.35%this movement 0.63%

Levels from statistics · after an up move from 4,206

Stop4,161 (−1.06%) 3 ATRhit in 33% of similar cases

No reliable target4,235 (+0.70%) 2 ATRthe nearest target was reached in only 49% of similar cases

ATR is the normal hourly range; now 0.35% ≈ 15. History: 197 similar movements, without lookahead.

Other stops and targets

Level	Price and %	Range	Probability
Stop	4,191 (−0.35%)	1 ATR	76%
Stop	4,176 (−0.70%)	2 ATR	51%
Stop	4,161 (−1.06%)	3 ATR	33%
Stop	4,146 (−1.41%)	4 ATR	22%
Stop	4,117 (−2.11%)	6 ATR	14%
Target	4,235 (+0.70%)	2 ATR	49%
Target	4,250 (+1.06%)	3 ATR	30%
Target	4,265 (+1.41%)	4 ATR	20%
Target	4,294 (+2.11%)	6 ATR	8%

Position size

Account currencyAccount, ₽Risk per trade, %

At 1% risk of 100,000 ₽ — size ≈ 0.00269 lots, stop loss 1,000 ₽, distance to the stop 44 (1.06%).

Volume calculated from your account and risk inputs. Not a recommendation.

Similar moves

04:00–05:00 UTC · +0.82% · M 3.6 Observation continues; result after 24 h.
Wed 30/09, 07:00–08:00 UTC · +0.83% · M 3.2 Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 10 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Wed 30/09, 04:00–05:00 UTC · +0.93% · M 3.2 Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 13 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Wed 16/09, 02:00–03:00 UTC · +0.93% · M 3.4 Retraced after 16 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 351 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Fri 11/09, 04:00–05:00 UTC · +0.64% · M 1.9 Retraced after 8 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 16/24 h, last candle 477 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.

Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.