USDJPY rose 0.18% in one hour on 03/09/2026 — what followed

USDJPY: event 03/09, 22:00–23:00 UTC, up move +0.18%, magnitude 2.1, ATR(24) 0.26%.

Updated 04/09/2026, 23:00 UTC

Recorded event and its outcomecompleted

2.1M

noticeable

USDJPY ▲ Rise

Forex · largest in 1 d · 0.7×ATR

#1052 hourly move of USDJPY in 2 years

+0.18%

hour Thu 03/09, 22:00–23:00 UTC · 156.12

Elapsed 668 hretraced to the midpoint after 1 h — planned entryfavourable 1.6 ATR · against 2.0 ATR

Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 22/24 h, last candle 646 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.

No rush: in 67% of similar cases the price returned to the midpoint of the move (155.98).

In 67% of similar cases the price pulled down to 155.98 within the next 12 h, usually within 3 h. Over 24 h the 2 ATR target was reached more often than the 3 ATR stop (45% vs 37%).

normal hour 0.26%this movement 0.18%

Levels from statistics · after an up move from 156.12

Stop154.91 (−0.78%) 3 ATRhit in 37% of similar cases

No reliable target156.93 (+0.52%) 2 ATRthe nearest target was reached in only 45% of similar cases

ATR is the normal hourly range; now 0.26% ≈ 0.40. History: 83 similar movements, without lookahead.

Other stops and targets

Level	Price and %	Range	Probability
Stop	155.71 (−0.26%)	1 ATR	77%
Stop	155.31 (−0.52%)	2 ATR	59%
Stop	154.91 (−0.78%)	3 ATR	37%
Stop	154.50 (−1.03%)	4 ATR	23%
Stop	153.70 (−1.55%)	6 ATR	5%
Target	156.93 (+0.52%)	2 ATR	45%
Target	157.33 (+0.78%)	3 ATR	31%
Target	157.73 (+1.03%)	4 ATR	20%
Target	158.54 (+1.55%)	6 ATR	6%

Position size

Account currencyAccount, ₽Risk per trade, %

At 1% risk of 100,000 ₽ — size ≈ 0.0156 lots, stop loss 1,000 ₽, distance to the stop 1.21 (0.78%).

Volume calculated from your account and risk inputs. Not a recommendation.

Similar moves

Tue 29/09, 09:00–10:00 UTC · +0.21% · M 2.6 Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR not reached.
Sun 27/09, 22:00–23:00 UTC · +0.20% · M 3.5 Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR not reached.
Thu 24/09, 05:00–06:00 UTC · +0.21% · M 2.5 Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached.
Tue 08/09, 10:00–11:00 UTC · +0.22% · M 1.0 Retraced after 2 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR not reached.
Fri 04/09, 03:00–04:00 UTC · +0.19% · M 1.4 Retraced after 3 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 17/24 h, last candle 646 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.

Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.