Nasdaq 100: volatility and unusual movements
Nasdaq 100: last closed candle 01/10, 16:00 UTC, price 30,339, hourly change -0.02%, largest event magnitude over 24 h 3.6 (01/10, 07:00–08:00 UTC). Last event: 01/10, 07:00–08:00 UTC, down move -0.56%, M 3.6.
Updated
Nasdaq 100 — hourly moves and how rare they are, computed on closed TLAP candles. Below: the latest notable move with its stop and target plan, a 30-day feed of events with verified outcomes, a summary after similar moves split by direction, the distribution of hourly moves over a year, and the records of this instrument. The service never suggests a trade direction.
Latest notable move
Observation continues; result after 24 h.
In 78% of similar cases the price pulled up to 30,671 within the next 12 h, usually within 2 h. Over 24 h the 2 ATR target was reached more often than the 4 ATR stop (57% vs 31%).
Other stops and targets
| Level | Price and % | Range | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stop | 30,687 (+0.34%) | 1 ATR | 83% |
| Stop | 30,790 (+0.67%) | 2 ATR | 67% |
| Stop | 30,892 (+1.01%) | 3 ATR | 49% |
| Stop | 30,995 (+1.34%) | 4 ATR | 31% |
| Stop | 31,200 (+2.01%) | 6 ATR | 16% |
| Target | 30,380 (−0.67%) | 2 ATR | 57% |
| Target | 30,278 (−1.01%) | 3 ATR | 42% |
| Target | 30,175 (−1.34%) | 4 ATR | 29% |
| Target | 29,970 (−2.01%) | 6 ATR | 14% |
Position size
Similar moves
- Wed 16/09, 18:00–19:00 UTC · -0.81% · M 3.7 Retraced after 4 h, stop 4 ATR hit, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 334 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
- Wed 09/09, 09:00–10:00 UTC · -0.56% · M 4.3 Retraced after 4 h, stop 4 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 511 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
Last 30 days 2 24-h outcomes with M ≥ 3 · 0 with complete data
| Time | Instrument | Movement | M | Recommendation | Outcome | Retracement | Stop | Target | Max. favourable / adverse | +24 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09, 18:00–19:00 UTC | Nasdaq 100 | ▼ -0.81% | 3.7 | after a down move · stop 4 ATR · target 2 ATR | Retraced after 4 h, stop 4 ATR hit, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 334 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed. | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | 2.8 / 8.4 ATR | -2.10× |
| 09/09, 09:00–10:00 UTC | Nasdaq 100 | ▼ -0.56% | 4.3 | after a down move · stop 4 ATR · target 2 ATR | Retraced after 4 h, stop 4 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR unconfirmed. Data: 23/24 h, last candle 511 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed. | ✓ | ? | ? | 0.8 / 2.3 ATR | -0.04× |
After similar moves every event of this instrument in that direction, on closed candles
| Measure | After an up move | After a down move |
|---|---|---|
| Events in history | 129 | 168 |
| Midpoint retracement within 12 h | 72% | 78% |
| A 3 ATR stop survived | 67% | 51% |
| A 2 ATR target was reached | 51% | 57% |
Distribution of hourly moves absolute change over 365 days · 5897 hours
A median hour moves the price by 0.11%, two percent of hours go beyond 0.77%, and the largest hour of the year moved 3.02%. The current ATR(24) is 0.36%.
Records of this instrument the rarest hourly move of each period by magnitude
| Week | Month | Year | Calm and its rank this year |
|---|---|---|---|
| M 3.6 -0.56% 07:00 | M 3.6 -0.56% 07:00 | M 8.1 -3.02% Thu 25/06, 13:00 | 9 trading h #44 of 52 |
Instrument questions
What is the stop for the latest Nasdaq 100 hourly event?
For the latest Nasdaq 100 event, the plan's stop is 30,995 (4 ATR(24)) from the 30,585 close. This level belongs to that event; it is not a standing stop for the instrument.
What is Nasdaq 100's usual hourly volatility?
Over 365 days, Nasdaq 100's median absolute hourly move was 0.11%; p98 was 0.77%. These are closed hourly candle moves, not a forecast.
What was Nasdaq 100's largest move this year?
Nasdaq 100's largest hourly move in the Moscow calendar year: 25/06/2026 13:00 UTC, -3.02% (M 8.1).
Latest events
Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.