BTC: volatility and unusual movements

BTC: last closed candle 01/10, 16:00 UTC, price 84,202, hourly change +0.05%, no notable events over 24 h. Last event: 30/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC, up move +1.88%, M 4.7.

Updated 01/10/2026, 17:15 UTC

BTC — hourly moves and how rare they are, computed on closed TLAP candles. Below: the latest notable move with its stop and target plan, a 30-day feed of events with verified outcomes, a summary after similar moves split by direction, the distribution of hourly moves over a year, and the records of this instrument. The service never suggests a trade direction.

Latest notable move

BTCcompleted

4.7M

rare

BTC ▲ Rise

Crypto · largest in 9 d · 3.6×ATR

#151 hourly move of BTC in 2 years

+1.88%

hour Wed 30/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC · 85,492

Elapsed 28 hstop hitThe provider later revised BTC data for this hour; this card shows the values at publication, as in Telegram.favourable 0.3 ATR · against 5.2 ATR

Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR not reached.

No rush: in 62% of similar cases the price returned to the midpoint of the move (84,689).

In 62% of similar cases the price pulled down to 84,689 within the next 12 h, usually within 2 h. Over 24 h the 2 ATR target was reached more often than the 3 ATR stop (55% vs 34%).

normal hour 0.52%this movement 1.88%

Levels from statistics · after an up move from 85,492

Stop84,151 (−1.57%) 3 ATRhit in 34% of similar cases

Target86,387 (+1.05%) 2 ATRreached in 55% of similar cases

ATR is the normal hourly range; now 0.52% ≈ 447. History: 177 similar movements, without lookahead.

Other stops and targets

Level	Price and %	Range	Probability
Stop	85,045 (−0.52%)	1 ATR	73%
Stop	84,598 (−1.05%)	2 ATR	47%
Stop	84,151 (−1.57%)	3 ATR	34%
Stop	83,704 (−2.09%)	4 ATR	22%
Stop	82,810 (−3.14%)	6 ATR	11%
Target	86,387 (+1.05%)	2 ATR	55%
Target	86,834 (+1.57%)	3 ATR	34%
Target	87,281 (+2.09%)	4 ATR	24%
Target	88,175 (+3.14%)	6 ATR	9%

Position size

Account currencyAccount, ₽Risk per trade, %

At 1% risk of 100,000 ₽ — size ≈ 0.00893 BTC, stop loss 1,000 ₽, distance to the stop 1,341 (1.57%).

Volume calculated from your account and risk inputs. Not a recommendation.

Similar moves

Mon 21/09, 08:00–09:00 UTC · +2.50% · M 3.7 Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached.
Fri 18/09, 13:00–14:00 UTC · +2.60% · M 5.7 Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached.
Fri 11/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC · +1.29% · M 4.5 Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached.
Thu 03/09, 14:00–15:00 UTC · +2.17% · M 5.0 Retraced after 22 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR reached.

Last 30 days 7 24-h outcomes with M ≥ 3 · 7 with complete data

Midpoint retracement

57%

over a day

Stop survived

71%

recommended level

Target reached

57%

recommended level

Broad movements

100%

several instruments in one hour

Time	Instrument	Movement	M	Recommendation	Outcome	Retracement	Stop	Target	Max. favourable / adverse	+24 h
30/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC	BTC	▲ +1.88%	4.7	after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR	Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR not reached.	✓	✗	✗	0.3 / 5.2 ATR	-1.09×
21/09, 08:00–09:00 UTC	BTC	▲ +2.50%	3.7	after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR	Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached.	✗	✓	✓	7.3 / 0.1 ATR	+1.18×
18/09, 13:00–14:00 UTC	BTC	▲ +2.60%	5.7	after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR	Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached.	✗	✓	✓	3.7 / 0.0 ATR	+0.62×
15/09, 18:00–19:00 UTC	BTC	▼ -1.25%	4.0	after a down move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR	Retraced after 24 h, stop 3 ATR survived, target 2 ATR not reached.	✓	✓	✗	1.8 / 1.1 ATR	+0.39×
11/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC	BTC	▲ +1.29%	4.5	after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR	Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached.	✓	✓	✓	4.6 / 2.9 ATR	-0.69×
04/09, 12:00–13:00 UTC	BTC	▼ -2.18%	5.1	after a down move · stop 4 ATR · target 2 ATR	Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR not reached.	✗	✓	✗	1.3 / 0.7 ATR	-0.14×
03/09, 14:00–15:00 UTC	BTC	▲ +2.17%	5.0	after an up move · stop 3 ATR · target 2 ATR	Retraced after 22 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR reached.	✓	✗	✓	3.5 / 3.8 ATR	-0.93×

After similar moves every event of this instrument in that direction, on closed candles

Measure	After an up move	After a down move
Events in history	178	204
Midpoint retracement within 12 h	62%	73%
A 3 ATR stop survived	66%	61%
A 2 ATR target was reached	55%	50%

Distribution of hourly moves absolute change over 365 days · 8761 hours

A median hour moves the price by 0.20%, two percent of hours go beyond 1.37%, and the largest hour of the year moved 4.82%. The current ATR(24) is 0.51%.

Records of this instrument the rarest hourly move of each period by magnitude

Week	Month	Year	Calm and its rank this year
M 4.7 +1.88% Wed 30/09, 12:00	—	M 8.1 -4.82% Thu 25/06, 13:00	28 h #75 of 103

Instrument questions

What is the stop for the latest BTC hourly event?

For the latest BTC event, the plan's stop is 84,151 (3 ATR(24)) from the 85,492 close. This level belongs to that event; it is not a standing stop for the instrument.

What is BTC's usual hourly volatility?

Over 365 days, BTC's median absolute hourly move was 0.20%; p98 was 1.37%. These are closed hourly candle moves, not a forecast.

What was BTC's largest move this year?

BTC's largest hourly move in the Moscow calendar year: 25/06/2026 13:00 UTC, -4.82% (M 8.1).

Latest events

Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.