USDJPY rose 0.25% in one hour on 08/09/2026 — what followed
USDJPY: event 08/09, 19:00–20:00 UTC, up move +0.25%, magnitude 0.6, ATR(24) 0.22%.
Updated
Recorded event and its outcomecompleted
0.6M
noticeableUSDJPY ▲ Rise
Forex · largest in 1 d · 1.1×ATR
#397 hourly move of USDJPY in 2 years
+0.25%
hour Tue 08/09, 19:00–20:00 UTC · 153.99
Elapsed 551 hstop hitfavourable 0.1 ATR · against 3.0 ATR
Retraced after 3 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR not reached.
No rush: in 67% of similar cases the price returned to the midpoint of the move (153.79).
In 67% of similar cases the price pulled down to 153.79 within the next 12 h, usually within 2 h. Over 24 h the 2 ATR target was reached more often than the 3 ATR stop (40% vs 35%).
normal hour 0.22%this movement 0.25%
Levels from statistics · after an up move from 153.99
Stop152.95 (−0.67%) 3 ATRhit in 35% of similar cases
No reliable target154.68 (+0.45%) 2 ATRthe nearest target was reached in only 40% of similar cases
ATR is the normal hourly range; now 0.22% ≈ 0.35. History: 82 similar movements, without lookahead.
Other stops and targets
| Level | Price and % | Range | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stop | 153.64 (−0.22%) | 1 ATR | 76% |
| Stop | 153.29 (−0.45%) | 2 ATR | 61% |
| Stop | 152.95 (−0.67%) | 3 ATR | 35% |
| Stop | 152.60 (−0.90%) | 4 ATR | 21% |
| Stop | 151.91 (−1.35%) | 6 ATR | 6% |
| Target | 154.68 (+0.45%) | 2 ATR | 40% |
| Target | 155.02 (+0.67%) | 3 ATR | 27% |
| Target | 155.37 (+0.90%) | 4 ATR | 17% |
| Target | 156.06 (+1.35%) | 6 ATR | 6% |
Position size
At 1% risk of 100,000 ₽ — size ≈ 0.0182 lots, stop loss 1,000 ₽, distance to the stop 1.04 (0.67%).
Volume calculated from your account and risk inputs. Not a recommendation.
Similar moves
- Mon 28/09, 14:00–15:00 UTC · +0.26% · M 3.7 Retraced after 2 h, stop 3 ATR survived, target 2 ATR not reached.
- Mon 28/09, 00:00–01:00 UTC · +0.24% · M 3.6 Retraced after 6 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR not reached.
- Fri 18/09, 03:00–04:00 UTC · +0.26% · M 0.6 Retraced after 3 h, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 17/24 h, last candle 310 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
- Fri 18/09, 02:00–03:00 UTC · +0.27% · M 3.0 Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 3 ATR unconfirmed, target 2 ATR reached. Data: 18/24 h, last candle 310 h ago; the rest is unconfirmed.
- Thu 10/09, 10:00–11:00 UTC · +0.24% · M 2.9 Retraced after 4 h, stop 3 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached.
Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.