EURUSD: volatility and unusual movements
EURUSD: last closed candle 01/10, 16:00 UTC, price 1.1219, hourly change -0.11%, largest event magnitude over 24 h 5.1 (01/10, 14:00–15:00 UTC). Last event: 01/10, 15:00–16:00 UTC, down move -0.29%, M 5.1.
Updated
EURUSD — hourly moves and how rare they are, computed on closed TLAP candles. Below: the latest notable move with its stop and target plan, a 30-day feed of events with verified outcomes, a summary after similar moves split by direction, the distribution of hourly moves over a year, and the records of this instrument. The service never suggests a trade direction.
Latest notable move
Observation continues; result after 24 h.
In 79% of similar cases the price pulled up to 1.1249 within the next 12 h, usually within 3 h. Over 24 h the 2 ATR target was reached more often than the 4 ATR stop (42% vs 26%).
Other stops and targets
| Level | Price and % | Range | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stop | 1.1249 (+0.14%) | 1 ATR | 88% |
| Stop | 1.1265 (+0.28%) | 2 ATR | 65% |
| Stop | 1.1280 (+0.42%) | 3 ATR | 44% |
| Stop | 1.1296 (+0.56%) | 4 ATR | 26% |
| Stop | 1.1328 (+0.85%) | 6 ATR | 10% |
| Target | 1.1201 (−0.28%) | 2 ATR | 42% |
| Target | 1.1185 (−0.42%) | 3 ATR | 28% |
| Target | 1.1170 (−0.56%) | 4 ATR | 15% |
| Target | 1.1138 (−0.85%) | 6 ATR | 10% |
Position size
Similar moves
- 14:00–15:00 UTC · -0.27% · M 5.1 Observation continues; result after 24 h.
- Wed 16/09, 18:00–19:00 UTC · -0.60% · M 7.3 Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR not reached.
Last 30 days 1 24-h outcomes with M ≥ 3 · 1 with complete data
| Time | Instrument | Movement | M | Recommendation | Outcome | Retracement | Stop | Target | Max. favourable / adverse | +24 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09, 18:00–19:00 UTC | EURUSD | ▼ -0.60% | 7.3 | after a down move · stop 4 ATR · target 2 ATR | Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR not reached. | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | 1.4 / 3.0 ATR | -0.08× |
After similar moves every event of this instrument in that direction, on closed candles
| Measure | After an up move | After a down move |
|---|---|---|
| Events in history | 110 | 98 |
| Midpoint retracement within 12 h | 66% | 79% |
| A 3 ATR stop survived | 68% | 56% |
| A 2 ATR target was reached | 53% | 42% |
Distribution of hourly moves absolute change over 365 days · 6226 hours
A median hour moves the price by 0.03%, two percent of hours go beyond 0.20%, and the largest hour of the year moved 0.62%. The current ATR(24) is 0.15%.
Records of this instrument the rarest hourly move of each period by magnitude
| Week | Month | Year | Calm and its rank this year |
|---|---|---|---|
| M 5.1 -0.27% 14:00 | M 5.1 -0.27% 14:00 | M 7.5 +0.62% Tue 07/04, 22:00 | 1 trading h #37 of 38 |
Instrument questions
What is the stop for the latest EURUSD hourly event?
For the latest EURUSD event, the plan's stop is 1.1296 (4 ATR(24)) from the 1.1233 close. This level belongs to that event; it is not a standing stop for the instrument.
What is EURUSD's usual hourly volatility?
Over 365 days, EURUSD's median absolute hourly move was 0.03%; p98 was 0.20%. These are closed hourly candle moves, not a forecast.
What was EURUSD's largest move this year?
EURUSD's largest hourly move in the Moscow calendar year: 07/04/2026 22:00 UTC, +0.62% (M 7.5).
Latest events
Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.