EURUSD fell 0.29% in one hour on 01/10/2026 — what followed
EURUSD: event 01/10, 15:00–16:00 UTC, down move -0.29%, magnitude 5.1, ATR(24) 0.14%.
Updated
Recorded event and its outcome
5.1M
very rareEURUSD ▼ Fall
Forex · largest in 15 d · 2.1×ATR
#169 hourly move of EURUSD in 2 years
-0.29%
hour 15:00–16:00 UTC · 1.1233
Elapsed 2 hwaiting for a retracementThe provider later revised EURUSD data for this hour; this card shows the values at publication, as in Telegram.favourable 1.1 ATR · against 0.8 ATRretracement deadline 03:00 UTC
Observation continues; result after 24 h.
No rush: in 79% of similar cases the price returned to the midpoint of the move (1.1249).
In 79% of similar cases the price pulled up to 1.1249 within the next 12 h, usually within 3 h. Over 24 h the 2 ATR target was reached more often than the 4 ATR stop (42% vs 26%).
normal hour 0.14%this movement 0.29%
Levels from statistics · after a down move from 1.1233
Stop1.1296 (+0.56%) 4 ATRhit in 26% of similar cases
No reliable target1.1201 (−0.28%) 2 ATRthe nearest target was reached in only 42% of similar cases
ATR is the normal hourly range; now 0.14% ≈ 0.0016. History: 98 similar movements, without lookahead.
Other stops and targets
| Level | Price and % | Range | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stop | 1.1249 (+0.14%) | 1 ATR | 88% |
| Stop | 1.1265 (+0.28%) | 2 ATR | 65% |
| Stop | 1.1280 (+0.42%) | 3 ATR | 44% |
| Stop | 1.1296 (+0.56%) | 4 ATR | 26% |
| Stop | 1.1328 (+0.85%) | 6 ATR | 10% |
| Target | 1.1201 (−0.28%) | 2 ATR | 42% |
| Target | 1.1185 (−0.42%) | 3 ATR | 28% |
| Target | 1.1170 (−0.56%) | 4 ATR | 15% |
| Target | 1.1138 (−0.85%) | 6 ATR | 10% |
Position size
At 1% risk of 100,000 ₽ — size ≈ 0.0189 lots, stop loss 1,000 ₽, distance to the stop 0.0063 (0.56%).
Volume calculated from your account and risk inputs. Not a recommendation.
Similar moves
- 14:00–15:00 UTC · -0.27% · M 5.1 Observation continues; result after 24 h.
- Wed 16/09, 18:00–19:00 UTC · -0.60% · M 7.3 Did not retrace to the midpoint, stop 4 ATR survived, target 2 ATR not reached.
Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.