Available Insights: Crypto Exchanges (3-7/11)

{"blocks": [{"id": "o33qmfk7", "data": {"html": "

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "yrpk7hl7", "data": {"html": "

Cryptocurrencies are showing the worst performance among all investment instruments. One of the largest crypto market makers, Wintermute, reports that major investors have left this asset class, and so far there are no signs of their return.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "nebwnk3m", "data": {"html": "

In addition, if the negativity in the U.S. stock market continues, cryptocurrencies will have no chance of recovery. Capital flows into crypto last, when speculators switch risk-on to the maximum.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "11lh0u51", "data": {}, "type": "readmore"}, {"id": "lnomqdjw", "data": {"text": "BTC", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "qyiguqbs", "data": {"html": "

The starting point in the analysis of bitcoin is April 9. The reason is very simple: at that time, the upward impulse from 75 thousand to 126 thousand began.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "luaew22q", "data": {"alt": "", "url": "/uploads/2025/11/2025-11-09_14-07-51-1100x565.png", "size": "100%", "align": "center", "caption": "", "linkUrl": ""}, "type": "image"}, {"id": "5qejbd86", "data": {"html": "

Several years ago, I talked about the phases of a market auction: impulse-fix-balance-impulse. The first fix occurred in mid-August. The breakout (climax) came in mid-September.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "oa3e424g", "data": {"html": "

Right now the game is still taking place in a very wide balance. In this balance, the global support is in the 92800-97300 range. And there is a very high probability that we are now heading exactly there. I will explain why a little below.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "ss6pa2co", "data": {"html": "

Within the wide balance, we are in an impulse phase. But this impulse is still within the balance, and there are some worrying points.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "sgb2sjdj", "data": {"html": "

The first point. The current decline is taking place on increased turnover. Quite often this is a signal of the start of more serious dynamics. Not always, of course: often within balances, the last wave against the main dynamics goes on increased turnover. But it is worth noting that the decline is happening on increased turnover, while pullbacks are forming on low turnover, as is the defense of short-impulse volumes.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "zp3gggzk", "data": {"html": "

The second point. A fairly reliable model for continuing the downward movement. From late August to late September, the market was drifting in a range between 106500-108600 and 114500-115600. The lower boundary acted as support until mid-October.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "301ajo4m", "data": {"html": "

After the pierce, the price reached the upper boundary and fell below the 103100-104700 range. This is the money from the first half of May. They loaded heavily there until the third ten-day period of June and broke through on good volume (50.5 thousand coins on the most liquid exchange).

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "fdi2dgli", "data": {"html": "

At the same time, the money from October 10 around 104700-106500 was also broken through. And then comes a flat range with sellers defending 103100-104700.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "w79ts6h8", "data": {"text": "Expectations for the week", "align": "center", "level": 3}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "cjss2eg9", "data": {"html": "

Thus, a price decline should be expected in bitcoin. The sellers' stop sweep was at 107000, but it looks like money has already been accumulated in the 103100-104700 area for continuation.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "ukge1mrl", "data": {"alt": "", "url": "/uploads/2025/11/2025-11-09_14-11-44-1100x565.png", "size": "100%", "align": "center", "caption": "", "linkUrl": ""}, "type": "image"}, {"id": "9jqgee40", "data": {"html": "

In such situations, further movement almost always follows. And next is 92800-97300. The likely extension length is 10-15 thousand bucks. If the hit is short with a reversal, which is also possible, then another 5-6-8 thousand down from current prices is very, very expected, followed by a sharp return.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "bll7k478", "data": {"html": "

But above 108700 the game may change, especially if there is very positive news (especially the QE start date). If playing carefully, the stop on shorts should be placed beyond 105 thousand. Here, of course, they can punish you, but a short stop is better than a serious drawdown or selling potential lows. Shorts are especially contraindicated on a sharp spike to 114500-115600.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "8kbiwyyg", "data": {"text": "SOL", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "8t1ba7qe", "data": {"html": "

As a first approximation, Solana is in a very wide balance, the 100-240 range. And within this wide balance, which has already lasted a year and a half, there is some probability of holding the 143-154 range. This is where the most traded zone of 2024-2025 is located (POC control point, 145).

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "gbvv7yco", "data": {"alt": "", "url": "/uploads/2025/11/2025-11-09_15-00-10-1100x579.png", "size": "100%", "align": "center", "caption": "", "linkUrl": ""}, "type": "image"}, {"id": "fcj4a4l0", "data": {"html": "

On the one hand, the 143-154 range may be held. But there are very bad signals indicating that this is far from guaranteed. Sellers defended the 230-240 range fairly confidently, where liquidity has already been accumulated three times.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "257yhrq0", "data": {"html": "

In addition, the move down from the 182-197 range is impulsive in nature. This happened over the past week.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "nhjk3x2c", "data": {"html": "

Such setups with volume accumulation slightly above or below key accumulations after an impulsive return to them often imply further movement, in our case downward.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "6i2nnnza", "data": {"html": "

If we look at a smaller timeframe, a test of the 175-179 range is likely. After all, the latest short-side expansion does not look the most favorable. At the same time, a sharp expansion downward from 160-170 is possible. The movement potential is around 40 dollars.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "dsl196mg", "data": {"html": "

But right now I am not sure that this game will be played out next week.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "yemyw9wo", "data": {"text": "ETH", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "zy8vbh6f", "data": {"html": "

I will be very brief here. Sellers dumped from the 3850-3880 range and so far are confidently defending the last volume of the short impulse in the 3484-3516 range.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "5pcczf7c", "data": {"html": "

In turn, buyers are trying to hold the average VWAP of the entire buy impulse that began in April. Therefore, this week the price traded in the 3265-3340 range. But so far I do not see much chance of defending the average that separates buyer and seller volumes.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "49yeecdh", "data": {"alt": "", "url": "/uploads/2025/11/2025-11-09_15-17-37-1100x572.png", "size": "100%", "align": "center", "caption": "", "linkUrl": ""}, "type": "image"}, {"id": "fut4tmiq", "data": {"html": "

I repeat, they broke down from the 3850-3880 range with aggressive adding at 3695-3740. If 3484-3516 does not hold, sellers may defend 3695-3740.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "tnizs6bp", "data": {"html": "

In principle, we can expect a transition into a wide 3600-3700 balance, i.e. trading around the broken range of half-year support. But this will become clear closer to Wednesday.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "pcyjil1k", "data": {"html": "

Extremely aggressive selling implies defending 3500, even with a quick move to run the stops at the 3600 mark.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "4czj60us", "data": {"html": "

Respectfully,
Ivan Rusin

"}, "type": "paragraph"}], "version": 1}