Available Insights: Crypto Exchanges (10-15/11)

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Over the past week, the main cryptocurrencies continued their slow decline. The main reason for the decline is liquidity leaving this asset class.

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On November 13 alone, $869.9 million was withdrawn from U.S. ETFs, the second-largest capital outflow from this asset class in the entire observation history. The most capital left the Mini Trust fund (Grayscale) - $318.2 million, IBIT (BlackRock) - $256.6 million, FBTC (Fidelity) - $119.9 million. On the same day, the value of the main cryptocurrency fell below $100,000.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "3l17jsl1", "data": {}, "type": "readmore"}, {"id": "5jq05eqs", "data": {"text": "Let me remind you that an ETF buys bitcoins on spot and issues securities that are linked to the value of bitcoin. \n\n\n\nIn turn, the investor buys a security on a regular exchange, investing capital in the asset indirectly. In general, serious players do not buy spot directly. And the issue here is mainly the real liquidity of the spot market.\n\n\n\nThus, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) bitcoin ETF trades on NASDAQ, where there are no problems with liquidity and the ability to quickly enter and exit the asset.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "o99265uk", "data": {"html": "

At the same time, more than 4 thousand BTC coins entered Anchorage Digital wallets, and Ethereum wallets are not lagging behind. Transactions are taking place outside the order book, which does not affect quotes (axiom: purchases in the book lead to an increase in the asset's value, while the book is often unable to pass the required liquidity volume). Key crypto market makers - Cumberland and Wintermute - provided liquidity for these OTC transactions.

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Personally, I have two questions:

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "lxlyhxw3", "data": {"items": ["is there a connection between the accumulation of bitcoin liquidity by structures working with crypto spot and the exit of large capital from exchange-traded funds,", "and how is the hedge for these purchases of real coins arranged?"], "style": "unordered"}, "type": "list"}, {"id": "nioyxy0s", "data": {"text": "BTC", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "50v6svik", "data": {"html": "

In the previous review, I showed why the bitcoin quote would most likely move toward the 92800-97300 range. I also showed that sellers' stops could be taken at 107 thousand: in reality, the price went 500 bucks higher with an immediate reversal south.

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In general, the reliable model for trading through volumes worked out exactly the way it usually works within the expected ranges.

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The next wave of decline passed on fairly large volumes. Current liquidity is in the 94700-97300 range. Such models usually have the following development options:

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "wo5oppj3", "data": {"items": ["Accumulation around 92800-97300 followed by a downward impulse.", "A test of the lower boundary of the 100000-102000 range with a move to renew the low.", "A sharp return on high turnover above 104.5 thousand (from 60 thousand coins on the largest crypto exchange) with consolidation above and attempts to continue moving up to 115,000."], "style": "ordered"}, "type": "list"}, {"id": "1pgu484b", "data": {"html": "

The last option now looks so unlikely that there is no point waiting for it until some liquidity is accumulated in the current zone and this liquidity begins positioning into buys.

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Let us recall what kind of zone this is: 92800-97300. And this is the liquidity add-on zone within the buy impulse that began on April 9.

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It is worth noting that all the money is ABOVE us. This is an important signal that the strength of buyers raises many questions. For them to sharply and briskly turn the quote above one hundred, and especially 104.5 thousand, within this model there must be a liquidity build-up and one last short renewal of the lows. And then we will say that a price bottom has formed by taking out buyers' stops.

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But specifically in this place and at this moment in time, one can get badly burned. Aggressive buying is not visible, and there is a probability of reaching the lower boundary of the value zone.

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In the previous review, the discussion was that Solana would see a stop sweep closer to the 175-179 range. The -1 VWAP deviation was also located there, and adding there within the short impulse is mandatory.

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The price reached 172 dollars for this coin, from where it fell to 137 and is hovering around 141. This is exactly the lower boundary of one of the potential support zones from the distant past: 142-154.

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Of course, the money was placed there a long time ago, which means it is not necessarily necessary to hold any levels rigidly. But practically this entire range was passed without liquidity. This is a very bad signal for buyers. In addition, the week before last there was no strong rebound from the 142-154 range, and this also suggests that there are most likely no buyers there.

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Looking for buys is possible only after consolidation above 160 and no earlier than in a few weeks. Judging by history, buyer loading takes from one to two months.

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Can Solana go even lower? Within the framework of the scheme, the price can fall both to 100 and to 110. But opening a short at current prices is also dangerous: after all, the 140 area is a two-year volume bottom, and oversold conditions have matured. They need to be removed either by a flat move or by a correction to 150.

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And here everything went within the scenarios voiced last week.

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Buyers tried to storm the 3695-3740 range, where an extremely aggressive seller had settled in. But the play did not succeed, and the quote was pushed to the price bottom formed on November 4.

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Usually in such a game, one should expect a return to a wide balance with decent volatility. The first targets after exiting the forming 3160-3230 range are near the lower boundary of the 3420-3455 range. It was here that sellers lowered the quote to the bottom on Thursday. After testing the 3420-3455 range, a return to the 3265-3340 range can be expected. But this is not certain.

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Is there an option to go straight into a short from the 3160-3230 range? Yes, such an option exists, but the volume accumulation model does not look like one that implies a high probability of selling from current levels.

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Commentators are all talking over one another, saying that everything in crypto is about to recover, which means pile in while it is cheaper. But piling in will be possible no earlier than the appearance of volume-based reversal buying models, which are not visible now.

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The golden rule: if there is no opportunity to buy cheaply, since the deposit will not withstand another step down, then it is better to buy more expensively, but in a clear model with a clear stop. And right now there is nothing like that in the market.

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Respectfully, Ivan Rusin

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