US Stock Market Futures: Forecast for 01/26-30/2026

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At the very start of the outgoing week, markets shook a little: not enough for stock futures and core securities to fall to the bottom, but enough to take out the stops of the crowd that was set on an expansion of the range above the highs reached. Thus, Monday and Tuesday's events, from the point of view of major speculators, look like a maneuver to pick up securities and drive into shorts those who once again believed Trump and his supposedly unpredictable policy.

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We will note wryly that this is not the first time Trump has given big capital a chance to buy at better prices. The clearest example is the introduction of tariffs on all countries last April. Here, of course, the drop was much smaller, averaging across indexes from 2.1% on the Dow to 2.5% on the Nasdaq.

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Be that as it may, real geopolitical risks have not gone anywhere; otherwise gold and other metals would not be flying into the skies at the speed of a space rocket.

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At the same time, according to Bloomberg's monthly survey, expectations for a Fed rate cut have shifted to June, although earlier the market had assumed a cut as soon as March.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "rbgb84sw", "data": {}, "type": "readmore"}, {"id": "ki5ojq91", "data": {"text": "ES Futures (S&P 500)", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "b7e42kqz", "data": {"html": "

Before analyzing the week's events in ES futures and expectations for next week, let us analyze the key ideas from the previous review.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "5cs16mpv", "data": {"text": "Growth in trading turnover continues. Not extremely aggressively, but the accumulation is quite dense.\n\n\n\nIt can lead both to a further move north and to continued work in balance, albeit with trading through the 6945-6955 range. Another alternative, which is also quite likely, is a sharp strike toward 6900 with a return to the 6950 area, i.e. continued formation of balance.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "12wfcjen", "data": {"html": "

What did we see last week?

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We saw, and some of us even took a feasible part in it, a fully expected sharp strike to the south, which turned out stronger than our expectations; for that, special thanks go to the extra-market factor named Donald Trump.

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In any case, everything stayed within the ranges identified earlier. Let me remind you that buyers opened the contract by buying out all liquidity in the 6825-6870 range. This is exactly where buyers worked aggressively on Tuesday and Wednesday (more precise working levels are slightly below).

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On Monday, a total of 2 million contracts were thrown in, and on Tuesday 2.1 million. These are very good figures that hint at buyer interest in this wide range.

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By the end of the week, the quote was pulled to where we had expected it within the scenario of the previous review, i.e. into the 6945-6995 range. The week closed slightly lower, right at the contract VWAP (6834).

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The main scenarios for the coming week appear as follows:

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "2mvh4bym", "data": {"items": ["From approximately current prices, or through a test of the 6905-6915 ranges or even 6880-6895, move closer to 6980-7000, where an attempt may be made to accumulate liquidity for a strike to 7050, and if it transitions into an impulse, even higher.", "The alternative implies a similar start to the week, but a reversal from the 6980-7000 range back to the upper or even lower boundary of the 6880-6930 range."], "style": "ordered"}, "type": "list"}, {"id": "3zf2bp4g", "data": {"html": "

In any case, strong one-directional moves can be expected on Thursday and Friday, since the monthly rhythm (calendar completion) also joins the usual rhythm of the week, when strong moves often occur, linked to various factors, including the expiration of monthly options.

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Now let's look at the week in terms of RTH (regular trading hours), i.e. the pure U.S. session.

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On Tuesday, buyers worked in the 6826–6835 range, and on Wednesday — 6847–6860. By the way, Wednesday's working range surprisingly coincides with Tuesday's imbalance zone. This was an excellent spot for buyers, where they were able to gather the maximum number of sellers trying to play a short impulse.

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As an intermediate zone, let's mark the 6885–6913 range, where on Monday selling was loaded near the lower boundary (let me remind you that the reverse side of selling is buying), and on Wednesday they bought back extremely aggressively near the upper boundary of this range.

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The week's core was formed in the 6940–6955 range on Thursday and Friday. This is also where they closed.

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The model requires at least a test of the past week's VWAP this coming Monday. A pullback to 6900, i.e. including Wednesday's POC.

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There we will need to watch which of the scenarios described above they may start to implement. At the same time, a scenario appears in which there is no need to go above 6950–6960 in order to hit +/- 6850.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "4rea5e1z", "data": {"text": "NQ Futures (Nasdaq-100)", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "ybsjbpt8", "data": {"html": "

Now let's move on to the NQ futures. As usual, first the key thesis from the previous review.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "u23gbwn3", "data": {"text": "Liquidity is scattered, and there is no clear picture yet. They may try to go above 25900 or trade around 25500 and slightly lower. So everything is complicated here.\n\n\n\nA lot depends on the week's open: if the U.S. opens above 25900 on Monday and works there confidently, then persistent attempts to move north can definitely be expected. Otherwise, it is necessary to react according to the situation.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "azl4xerj", "data": {"alt": "futures", "url": "/uploads/2026/01/2026-01-24_17-13-14-1100x555.png", "size": "100%", "align": "center", "caption": "", "linkUrl": ""}, "type": "image"}, {"id": "esu0nbwm", "data": {"html": "

As we can see, they moved south from the open. I.e. formally, we can say that tactical shorts were accumulated the week before last in the 25870-25990 range. And it was precisely to this range that they returned by the close of the past week.

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As with ES, they traded through the contract range in the opposite direction. Liquidity for the reversal was accumulated in the 25130–25225 range. The week's core was formed in the 25675–25155 range. In fact, the core of the entire contract is located right here as well.

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They closed the week closer to the +1 deviation of the contract VWAP (25580), which may indicate both the reaching of a local extreme before another reversal within the balance and attempts to break out further.

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If there are attempts to expand northward, then they should not go below the contract VWAP (or much below), while in the case of a continuation of the balance they can calmly go to 25350-25400.

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Now let's look at what the Americans did during the week (RTH) and what they may be preparing for next week.

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Here it is clearer where liquidity was picked up for the reversal: the 25120-25200 range. In the 25450-24485 range they were aggressively adding. The week's core formed in the 25670-25755 range.

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If they are ready to go north, then 25450-25485 (the week's VWAP is also here) should act as support. Small undershoots-overshoots are not considered a violation of the idea and are a game on lower timeframes. At the same time, they may hold 25600 within the model of continued buying.

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A good signal for a potential exit into a buy is consolidation above 25800 already on Monday. But a move below 25400 with consolidation will be a strong argument, if not for looking for speculative shorts, then clearly for the absence of potential for northern expansion.

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This futures contract showed greater buyer confidence. They did not let the entire contract trade back.

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What did I write in the previous review?

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "n2ri2378", "data": {"text": "Volume accumulation above 49800 is a very northern signal, especially if they open there on Monday and calmly build liquidity.\n\n\n\nBut trading no further than 49250 (I mean volumes, not tails) is a balance signal, but with northern potential.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "d3yqkv1g", "data": {"html": "

For various reasons, the alternative scenario of returning to balance was not marked. Probably because the possible northern model was being drawn very beautifully. Well, in this review I will take that oversight into account.

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On Thursday they touched shorts in the 49715-49775 range, so that on Friday they would pull back more strongly than the previous instruments: closer to the contract VWAP (49080). In fact, Friday's liquidity passed through Wednesday's fixing array: the overall range was 49230-49340.

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As everywhere, they reversed on high turnover, but from the POC of the first two weeks of the contract (the second two weeks of December 2025). The -1 deviation of the entire contract VWAP is also here.

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Liquidity for the reversal was collected in the 48650-48705 range. They topped up buys in the 48810-48965 range. More precisely, they started accumulating them here on Tuesday and quickly added on Wednesday.

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Such a model implies some balance at the reached levels, so on Monday-Tuesday one should expect work in the 49100-49500 range and watch there which way the wind blows.

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Let's move on to RTH.

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The week's core formed in the 49260-49335 range, right above the week's VWAP (49175). Friday opened with a gap relative to Thursday, but at the same time it was a liquidity accumulation session within Wednesday's extreme buys.

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If looking at this from the point of view of the north, then on YM they have already made the approach to VWAP, the potential and necessity of which I discussed while considering the previous instruments.

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On the other hand, if America opens where it closed on Friday, a step toward 48990-49050 is more than likely. It will be manipulative in case of a sharp reversal above 49335 with trading through Friday's imbalance. This will be an argument in favor of buyers.

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But a move down to the -1 deviation of last week's VWAP (the 48555-48895 range) will be clear evidence of unwillingness / inability to expand the quote farther north.

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By the way, a move here from the range standpoint will correspond to the passage range from the week's highs reached on Thursday to Friday's core. And that is also a normal story within the balance.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "wnsb53t9", "data": {"text": "Conclusion", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "y2ywq9lt", "data": {"html": "

The end of the month may make adjustments to trading plans.

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On the one hand, we saw strong demand everywhere at the lows of the past week, and by the end of the week we can sharply move into an impulse.

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On the other hand, the balance model looks underdeveloped from the standpoint of an exit into a buy impulse, so another week of balance with the quote rocking inside the range on Thursday and Friday is quite likely. And the breakout will be left for the beginning of February.

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