Trading Psychology: Is the Forex Market Really Against You?

Hello, friends! Surely each of you has had situations when it seemed that the market was personally against you. As soon as you open a position, the price immediately goes in the opposite direction. The moment you lock in a loss, the market promptly turns back toward your already closed position. Could it really be that someone is watching you from the other side of the monitor?

At one time I had similar thoughts too. I even opened terminals from different forex brokers to check whether they were deceiving me with the price. But the point is that the Forex market works according to a special logic that is precisely aimed at creating such situations. And today we will talk about this in more detail.

Rule 1. The market price rises to provide strong players with better opportunities to sell.

Rule 2. The market price falls to provide strong players with better opportunities to buy.

"Forecasts are financial sweets. Forecasts are given to people who hate uncertainty and need something emotionally soothing."

Thomas Vician

"A novice trader is at a disadvantage because his intuition about what he is going to take from the market is typical of all beginners. A professional becomes someone whose vision goes beyond these typical responses and who understands the deeper workings of the market."

Charles Faulkner

In the opinion of novice traders, markets are deceptive and move in the wrong direction. Markets are simply a place where buyers and sellers gather to trade and exchange goods. They can be a cruel place if you allow them to be. Do not trade for the sake of being right. Trading is created for making a profit.

"It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons from his mistakes. People say that everything has two sides. But the market has only one side; and it is neither the bullish side nor the bearish side, but the right side."

Jesse Livermore

Respectfully, Pavel TradeLikeaPro.ru

«Prognozy – eto finansovye sladosti. Prognozy dayutsya lyudyam, kotorye nenavidyat chuvstvo neopredelennosti i nuzhdayutsya v chem-to emotsionalno uspokaivayushchem».

Tomas Vitsian

«Nachinayushchiy treyder nakhoditsya v nevygodnom polozhenii, potomu chto ego intuitsiya v otnoshenii togo, chto on sobiraetsya vzyat s rynka, kharakterna dlya vsekh nachinayushchikh. Professionalom stanovitsya tot, che videnie vykhodit za ramki etikh tipichnykh otvetov, i kto ponimaet bolee glubokuyu rabotu rynka».

Charlz Folkner

Vy dolzhny nachat ponimat, chto rynki ne khaotichny, a, kak vremena goda, sleduyut v sootvetstvii s predskazuemym kursom. Vse my takzhe do kontsa ne ponimaem, chto dvizhet vesnu, leto, osen i zimu. Odnako vse oni nakhodyatsya v sootvetstvii s prognoziruemoy tendentsiey. Tak zhe i tsenovoe dvizhenie. Valyuty na foreks, aktsii, obligatsii i syrevye tovary, kak i vse ostalnoe v mire – vse oni dvizhutsya v tendentsiyakh, a tendentsii, kak pravilo, sokhranyayut svoe napravlenie. Institutsionalnye treydery, znaya kharakter svoego biznesa, ponimayut eto.

Institutsionalnye treydery budut ispolzovat eto v svoikh interesakh, tak kak oni imeyut vozmozhnost uderzhivat irratsionalnuyu pozitsiyu. Oni vyzhidayut i znayut, chto iz ikh knigi orderov budut postupat zakazy na pokupku, kogda oni derzhat otkrytoy dlinnuyu pozitsiyu i nakhodyatsya v otritsatelnom saldo.

Esli eti ordera ne postupayut, to ikh kontaktnye litsa po prodazham dolzhny nachat obzvanivat krupnykh korporativnykh igrokov. Kogda oni nachnut poluchat zakazy na pokupku, oni budut stimulirovat rost rynochnoy tseny do togo momenta, poka oni ne zakroyut vse svoi dlinnye pozitsii. Gde oni budut iskat v pervuyu ochered?

1. Na urovnyakh, za kotorymi vse melkie igroki pryachut svoi stop-loss ordera.

2. Na chetko vyrazhennykh urovnyakh podderzhki / soprotivleniya i urovnyakh Fibonachchi.

Davayte ispolzuem primer nashego pervogo grafika (sm. vyshe) , gde rynok nakhoditsya v silnom niskhodyashchem trende. Bank XYZ poluchil 800 000 000 orderov na dlinnye pozitsii. Glavnyy diler ne osobo dovolen takoy situatsiey. Zadacha 1: Zakryt pozitsiyu s pribylyu ili, v khudshem sluchae, v bezubytochnosti. Zadacha 2: Razvernutsya v protivopolozhnom napravlenii i otkryt korotkuyu pozitsiyu.

Kakov plan deystviy?

1. Pozvonit v svoi drugie mezhdunarodnye filialy i poprosit ikh sovershit neskolko zvonkov v svoi krupnye transnatsionalnye korporatsii, chtoby poluchit neskolko orderov na pokupku seychas i nemnogo vyshe rynochnoy tseny. Razmestit chast svoikh pokupateley predpochtitelno na urovne Fibonachchi ili na urovne podderzhki / soprotivleniya, chto dast vozmozhnost banku poluchit pribyl ot svoikh pozitsiy.

2. Nachat initsiatsiyu orderov na pokupku i okhotu za stop-lossami. Stop-ordera dolzhny peremestit pozitsiyu Banka na sleduyushchiy uroven, na kotorom ispolnitsya eshche bolshee kolichestvo orderov na pokupku.

Dalee Bank zakryvaet svoi dlinnye pozitsii i otkryvaet korotkie pozitsii likvidnymi sredstvami dlya togo, chtoby pokupat i prodavat na sleduyushchey niskhodyashchey volne.

Eto tolko odin primer togo, kak rynok Forex mozhet vremenno podbrosit tsenu, ispolzuya doverchivykh treyderov. Pol Tyudor Dzhons odnazhdy vyskazalsya po etomu povodu sleduyushchim obrazom: «Tsena delaet novosti, a ne naoborot. Rynok budet idti v tom napravlenii, v kotorom rynok planiruet idti». Rynki obmanchivy dlya tolpy, potomu chto oni idut protiv tekh, kto torguet v napravlenii trenda. Vse lyudi ishchut patterny, i, kogda pattern obrazovalsya, oni schitayut, chto «dvizhenie» nachalos (v lyudyakh prosypaetsya zhadnost), i nachinayut prodavat ili pokupat (v kontse dvizheniya). Lyuboe vremennoe dvizhenie v protivopolozhnom napravlenii vyzyvaet u nikh strakh i neuverennost. Eto privodit k zameshatelstvu, a instituty kak raz i okhotyatsya na takie zameshatelstva.

«Esli lyudi zadayut vam nepravilnye voprosy, vy ne dolzhny bespokoitsya ob otvetakh na nikh»

Khanter S. Tompson

Eto yavlenie takzhe obyasnyaetsya sleduyushchey frazoy, kotoruyu vy neodnokratno slyshali: «Chtoby byt uspeshnym v torgovle, vam sleduet sokratit svoi poteri, i dat vozmozhnost svoey pribyli rasti». Eto odno iz samykh slozhnykh ponyatiy v torgovle, v otnoshenii kotorogo neobkhodimo sokhranyat zhestkuyu distsiplinu, i eto to, gde teoriya effektivnogo rynka deystvitelno lomaetsya, chto stanovitsya ochevidnym v tsenovom dvizhenii.

Psikhologicheskaya priroda rynka foreks beret verkh. Bolshinstvo lyudey, kogda oni teryayut chto-to, oni ozhidayut eto zhe i nayti. «Ya poteryal svoi ochki. Mozhet, oni, v konechnom itoge, gde-to poyavyatsya». Odnako esli v torgovom tsentre vy uronili kupyuru v 5000 rubley, to vy by ne ozhidali nayti ee tam, dazhe esli vy vspomnite tochnoe mesto, gde vy ee uronili. Charlz Folkner skazal po etomu povodu sleduyushchee: «Nas uchit takoy opyt, v kotorom imeyutsya neveroyatnye poteri i trudnye dostizheniya. Takoy, v kotorom my primenyaem zhestkuyu distsiplinu, psikhologicheskuyu podgotovku i navyki tekhnicheskogo analiza, chto daet treyderu vozmozhnost torgovat protiv estestvennykh rynochnykh trendov».

«Chuvstvovat sebya khorosho – to, chto zachastuyu nepravilno, i chego ne sleduet delat».

Uilyam Ekkhard

Po mneniyu nachinayushchikh treyderov, rynki obmanchivy i idut v nepravilnom napravlenii. Rynki – eto prosto mesto, gde sobirayutsya pokupateli i prodavtsy dlya torgovli i obmena tovarom. Oni mogut byt zhestokim mestom (esli vy pozvolite im byt takimi). Ne torguyte radi togo, chtoby byt pravym. Torgovlya sozdana dlya polucheniya pribyli.

«Cheloveku trebuetsya mnogo vremeni, chtoby vynesti vse uroki iz svoikh oshibok. Lyudi govoryat, chto lyubaya veshch imeet dve storony. No u rynka tolko odna storona; i eto ne bychya ili medvezhya storona, a pravilnaya storona».

Dzhessi Livermor

S uvazheniem, Pavel TradeLikeaPro.ru