BTC fell 1.29% in one hour on 29/10/2026 — what followed
BTC: event 29/10, 23:00–00:00 UTC, down move -1.29%, magnitude 1.2, ATR(24) 0.77%.
Updated
Recorded event and its outcomecompleted
1.2M
noticeableBTC ▼ Fall
Crypto · largest in 1 d · 1.7×ATR
#423 hourly move of BTC in 2 years
-1.29%
hour Thu 29/10, 23:00–00:00 UTC · 77,992
Target — 76,798Close — 77,992Stop — 79,783
Stop — 79,783Close — 77,992Target — 76,798
H1 event · close 30/10, 00:00 UTC
Elapsed 24 htarget reached in hour 1 · H1 30/10, 00:00 UTC — 30/10, 01:00 UTCwith the move 2.8 ATR · against 1.4 ATR24 of 24 h elapsed. Window end: 31/10, 00:00 UTC
Data coverage: 24/24
Closed H1 in the elapsed window: 24/24. Last candle · close: 31/10, 00:00 UTC. Scheduled breaks: 0. Confirmed missing: 0. Absent H1 with unconfirmed calendar: 0. All elapsed H1 without a confirmed calendar: 0.
Outcome history and published values
Initial event snapshot · 30/10, 00:01 UTC: Candle price: 77,992 · Hourly change: -1.29% · Magnitude: 1.2 · ATR(24), %: 0.77
Initial outcome: v1. Selected outcome: v1
The originally published outcome values were not retained; parity with Telegram is unconfirmed.
| Changed at | Reason | Measure | Before | After | Version |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10, 00:00 UTC | The 24-hour window closed | Result in movement units | 1.02 | 0.67 | v1 |
| 31/10, 00:00 UTC | The 24-hour window closed | Observed H1 candles | 23 | 24 | v1 |
| 31/10, 00:00 UTC | The 24-hour window closed | Complete 24-hour coverage | No | Yes | v1 |
| 31/10, 00:00 UTC | The 24-hour window closed | Coverage | Received 23/23; missing 0; absent H1 with unconfirmed calendar 0; H1 without a confirmed calendar 0 | Received 24/24; missing 0; absent H1 with unconfirmed calendar 0; H1 without a confirmed calendar 0 | v1 |
| 31/10, 00:00 UTC | The 24-hour window closed | Original-window candles | 23 H1 | 24 H1 | v1 |
| 31/10, 00:01 UTC | Retained provider candles changed | Result in movement units | 0.67 | 0.62 | v2 |
| 31/10, 00:01 UTC | Retained provider candles changed | Original-window candles | 24 H1 | 24 H1 | v2 |
Technical revision data
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78042.01,
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1793347200,
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1793350800,
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77831.02
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],
"source_versions": []
}Retraced after 6 h, stop 3 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached.
Price returned to the midpoint (78,495) in 70% of similar cases.
In 70% of similar cases the price pulled up to 78,495 within 12 calendar hours, usually within 2 calendar hours. Over 24 calendar hours, price touched the 2 ATR target in 53% of similar cases and the 3 ATR stop in 38%. These are separate touches; their order is not established.
normal hour 0.77%this movement 1.29%
Levels from statistics · after a down move from 77,992
Stop79,783 (+2.30%) 3 ATRPrice touched in 38% of similar cases
Target76,798 (−1.53%) 2 ATRPrice touched in 53% of similar cases
ATR is the normal hourly range; now 0.77% ≈ 597. History: Calendar windows: 12 h n=173, unknown 0; 24 h n=173, unknown 0; total 173. Minimum sample for percentages: 30.
Other stops and targets
| Level | Price and % | Range | Touch frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stop | 78,589 (+0.77%) | 1 ATR | 77% |
| Stop | 79,186 (+1.53%) | 2 ATR | 55% |
| Stop | 79,783 (+2.30%) | 3 ATR | 38% |
| Stop | 80,380 (+3.06%) | 4 ATR | 25% |
| Stop | 81,575 (+4.59%) | 6 ATR | 13% |
| Target | 76,798 (−1.53%) | 2 ATR | 53% |
| Target | 76,201 (−2.30%) | 3 ATR | 39% |
| Target | 75,603 (−3.06%) | 4 ATR | 28% |
| Target | 74,409 (−4.59%) | 6 ATR | 13% |
Position size
At 1% risk of 100,000 ₽ — size ≈ 0.00675 BTC, stop loss 1,000 ₽, distance to the stop 1,791 (2.30%).
Volume calculated from your account and risk inputs. Not a recommendation.
Similar moves
- 00:00–01:00 UTC · -1.13% · M 1.0 Observation continues; result after 24 h.
- Sat 14/11, 20:00–21:00 UTC · -1.46% · M 3.2 Observation continues; result after 24 h.
- Sat 14/11, 03:00–04:00 UTC · -1.37% · M 2.8 Retraced after 1 h, stop 3 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached.
- Fri 13/11, 03:00–04:00 UTC · -2.06% · M 4.0 Retraced after 8 h, stop 3 ATR survived, target 2 ATR reached.
- Sun 08/11, 21:00–22:00 UTC · -2.12% · M 3.8 Retraced after 2 h, stop 3 ATR hit, target 2 ATR not reached.
Market Magnitude shows statistics of past hourly moves computed on closed candles. It is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss; you make all decisions independently.