Technical Analysis of the Forex Market for 03/17/2025
Hello. Below are several recommendations for trading on the Forex market for 03/17/2025
EURUSD
On EURUSD, expectations for a downward correction did not materialize. The price went slightly above the 1.0936 high and rolled back down. Judging by the number of sellers in the trade statistics, a strong fall still should not be expected. The second half of the week is very news-heavy; a number of interest rate decisions await us, including the US and the Fed meeting. I will not make long-term plans. If at the start of the week we pull back below last week's low of 1.0805, I will try to look for buys, targeting growth well above the 1.0936 level. I am not considering sells here yet, as they are against the trend.
USDCAD
On USDCAD, after a sharp breakout upward beyond the 1.4681 level, we returned into the sideways range and continue moving within it. The price is stuck near the upper boundary, and sales toward the 1.4177 level can be tried. In the trade statistics, however, sellers have the advantage, which is confusing, as it does not favor a decline. But the possible movement range is not very large, so it can be tried.
Fundamental Overview
Thomas Martin, senior CFA portfolio manager at Globalt Investments
No single trend formed on Asian exchanges, but most indexes rose, led by the rise in the Chinese market. Investors assessed the Communist Party's efforts to stimulate business development and attract investment. In addition, China unexpectedly became a “safe haven of the Asia-Pacific,” judging by active demand for government bonds.
US and European markets showed strong growth at the end of the week. The rebound was connected with the vote on the US budget, which removed the threat of a shutdown, and progress in reforming Germany's “debt brake.” Germany's future chancellor secured the exclusion of defense spending from this rule through constitutional reform.
Thomas Martin, senior CFA portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, believes that the rebound will not develop into a full-fledged uptrend because of the risk of rising inflation. His words are supported by the University of Michigan report: the consumer confidence index fell in March to 57.9 versus the expected 63.2.
Asia-Pacific
- Hang Seng gained 2.12%, closing at 23,959.98
- Nikkei 225 rose by 0.72% to 37,053.10
- Topix gained 0.65%
- S&P/ASX 200 rose by 0.52%, reaching 7,789.70
- South Korean Kospi fell by 0.28%
The week opened with statistics:
- 00:30 - Business NZ Services Activity Index (New Zealand)
- 05:00 - Industrial Production (China)
- 05:00 - Retail Sales (China)
US
- Dow Jones + 1.65%
- Nasdaq + 2.61%
- S&P500 + 2.13%
Main US news for the evening session:
- 15:30 - NY Fed Manufacturing Business Activity Index
- 15:30 - Retail Sales
Eurozone
- DAX + 1.86%
- CAC40 + 1.13%
- FTSE100 + 1.05%
At 12:00, the Eurozone consumer price index will be released.
Cryptocurrency News
For the week, Bitcoin rose by 2.5%, while Ethereum lost almost 7%. Low demand for altcoins offsets BTC's rise. Investors are shifting investments into Bitcoin from other digital currencies, preparing for a further market decline.
The main events of the past week:
- Bitcoin updated the year's low at $78000
- A new Ethereum testnet, Hoody, has been launched, where the Pectra upgrade will be carried out
- The SEC is receiving more and more varied applications for different crypto ETFs, but postponements have already started for previously accepted applications.
- The EU suspects OKX of complicity in laundering cryptocurrency stolen from ByBit accounts
- US authorities are ready to close the Ripple court case, while the Trump family is ready to acquire a stake in Binance US
Respectfully, Artem aka TeaDrinker