Available Insights: U.S. Stock Market Review (3-7/11)

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"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "ka222bgp", "data": {"text": "Buy the Rumor, sell the Fact. Ancient stock-market wisdom", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "jndpqxyg", "data": {"html": "

And hello again.

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The first week of November became an unpleasant surprise for some, a good chance to ride shorts for others, while a third group loaded up on good volume at potential lows.

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The shutdown continues in the U.S., and over the past week it took an honorable first place by duration: already 38 days. Meanwhile, the battles in the Senate continue: Bloomberg reported that this time Republicans rejected the Democrats' proposal, which could have led to renewed funding for government agencies. In any case, the very fact that proposals are being discussed, especially on the weekend, is considered the start of the process of exiting the prolonged shutdown.

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Trump continues to concentrate power.

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The U.S. Supreme Court is still thinking over what Trump's tariff policy is: a violation of the law or not. Trump's lawyers argue that tariffs are more sanctions than taxes. It follows from this that Trump is doing everything legally: the president has the right to influence tariff policy if the international situation requires it. Opponents hold the opposite view: Trump's "tariffs" are still taxes, which means he is breaking the law, since the president has no right to interfere in tax policy.

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We should also note the Senate's blocking of a resolution that would prohibit Donald Trump from attacking Venezuela without Congressional approval.

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Among other news, it is worth highlighting major job cuts at leading technology corporations and retail chains, and the worsening problems in the capital market: there is less and less money in the system, which is exactly why Powell earlier spoke about the imminent resumption of QE. The tripling of the U.S. Treasury's balance to 1 trillion belongs in the same basket: a serious signal of a coming liquidity shortage.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "boial17s", "data": {}, "type": "readmore"}, {"id": "zhkud1ji", "data": {"text": "Analysis of the previous review", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "gudcbgjl", "data": {"html": "

The previous review stated that strong moves should be expected on Monday-Tuesday. This story worked out 100%. And the idea of working in a range already the week before last turned out, to put it mildly, to be wrong. But the situation for canceling the buy scenario was indicated, as were potential entry points for shorts.

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The zones of November's initial balance have already been marked, which means trading for next week can be planned.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "gcz8ranq", "data": {"text": "ES Futures (S&P 500)", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "yzx0dyyd", "data": {"text": "How it was", "align": "left", "level": 3}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "kklc63lj", "data": {"html": "

In the previous review, I highlighted the 6825-6840 zone, into which I expected a move by tails. On Monday, price worked very densely in the 6883-6886 range (it can be taken wider, then the lower boundary will be 6876). Monday closed within 6825-6840.

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Why was it impossible to buy there? The reason is simple: the market came there after accumulating liquidity, and over three days. It was accumulated in 6870-6905 (I also showed this range in the previous review). Buys in such setups can be considered only after a hard reversal during the U.S. session or after the market opens (RTH, from 8:30 in Chicago) in the 6870-6886 zone.

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On Tuesday, they pushed lower, down to 6750. On Wednesday, liquidity was gathered into speculative shorts on minimal daily volumes, after which the price declined until Friday.

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By Friday, quotes reached the initial balance (the first volumes) of the December contract and the zone where liquidity was accumulated at the September Fed meeting: the 6654-6680 range. In this range, selling ended, and buyers lifted quotes to the contract's average price with Thursday's volumes.

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On Friday, the main money passed through the 6696-6710 range. The week closed within 6735-6765. In fact, reversal money was accumulated from 6665 to 6710 on the week's maximum liquidity.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "31u0pxew", "data": {"text": "Expectations for the coming week", "align": "left", "level": 3}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "i5qg0l6p", "data": {"html": "

For the first time since October 17, more than 1.9 million contracts traded in a day. And this happened during a test of the money placed at the start of the contract and on October 13-17. That week, liquidity was thrown in most aggressively. The result of those actions is on the scoreboard. And we see protection of the wide 6650-6720 range.

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If positive information on resolving the shutdown problem appears over the weekend, then already on Monday we may see movement on the screen up to last Tuesday's high, i.e. to 6855, and maybe even 6870. But that is in the very best case.

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For a more accurate assessment of prospects at the beginning of the week, we will switch to the RTH chart.

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On the last day of the week, America traded tightly in the 6695-6710 range. And after noon there was a Friday short squeeze. In the 6731-6742 range, buyers also did some work and pushed quotes higher again.

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If we assess the Weiss Wave indicator, which shows how much volume passed in one direction, then 950 thousand contracts went into the reversal (if that is what it was). At the same time, they moved into Thursday's zone, and that is also a good signal.

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On Monday-Tuesday, we watch to see that 6695-6710 is held. Within a good market game for buyers (RTH), this range should not be broken. A very good game implies holding 6730.

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On the same days, consolidation is possible no higher than 6773-6781 and 6793-6803. If during a couple of sessions the price holds within 6770-6800, then the probability of an attempt to storm the highs is high. But we watch 6850 - positive momentum may run out there.

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If America opens with a gap down at 6710 or lower, or the price goes there from the weekly open, then one needs to be very careful: a decline to 6600 is likely, though they may also hold it.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "c2c43d2u", "data": {"text": "NQ Futures (NASDAQ 100)", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "00q8v0am", "data": {"text": "How it was", "align": "left", "level": 3}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "eqnhbf8f", "data": {"html": "

The model is almost the same as on ES. Even slightly more short-oriented. I will analyze only RTH.

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On Monday, America traded tightly in the 26072-26111 range. Tuesday opened with a gap down: sellers loaded in 25850-25875. There on Wednesday, they added more sales at the week's average price (VWAP).

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On Friday, the main money went through the 24925-25010 and 24765-24855 ranges.

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Quotes will clearly aim to test the lower boundary of the 25435-25580 range and will even trade inside this range. If buyers are not shy, then we may well see 25850-25875. If the price is there on Monday, then a speculative short for an hour to an hour and a half is assured.

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Supports around 24765-24855 and 24925-25010 require liquidity accumulation. But let us look at the news and the start of the week.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "8otixrqg", "data": {"text": "YM Futures (Dow Jones Index)", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "edqqhfu5", "data": {"text": "How it was", "align": "left", "level": 3}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "dptbv9c2", "data": {"html": "

Friday's volumes are comparable to Thursday's volumes, whereas on ES on Thursday they were 10% lower than on Friday. Also on YM there was a serious imbalance on Monday: America opened below the close.

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Shorts were accumulated at 47390-47530. The reversal on Friday was formed within 46695-46940 (we will analyze it in more detail below). The main money was turned over in 47030-47295. In this respect, the week was played somewhat differently: on ES it is a short impulse inside a wide balance, while on YM it is a downward volatile balance.

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As for the reversal zone, this is also the place of aggressive buying from mid-October. And here the presence of buyers was confirmed.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "84w7srvc", "data": {"alt": "", "url": "/uploads/2025/11/2025-11-08_15-38-21-1100x582.png", "size": "100%", "align": "center", "caption": "", "linkUrl": ""}, "type": "image"}, {"id": "af3cqauc", "data": {"text": "Expectations for the coming week", "align": "left", "level": 3}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "9bpjjz66", "data": {"html": "

In the US session on Monday and Wednesday, dense selling can be expected around 47460-47540. Without positive news, there is no point waiting for quotes to rise. But an approach to this zone is very, very expected.

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We are watching the loading in 46780-47080. For an aggressive impulse toward the resistance zone indicated above, buyers may start from 47000-47050 at the beginning of the week.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "3wxvu1rg", "data": {"text": "Summary", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "caler4uq", "data": {"html": "

The most important thing we saw last week was the holding of the zones where the main money had been turned over. On the one hand, this canceled the impulse on the daily chart that began in mid-October. On the other hand, there were no takers to aggressively push the price below the key zones. This means that buyers have not given up and are ready to lift the price above the key zones of September and October. At the same time, one should not expect quotes to rise above last week's open or the previous week's close.

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In addition, it can be noted that the range of decline on the instruments considered is within the statistical norm, and buyers appeared exactly where they could appear from the point of view of the "length" of the correction.

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Quotes are not yet ready to go lower, but there is not enough impulse for growth either. In any case, it is worth watching Thursday's highs and Wednesday's lows. Sales may accumulate there, or they may immediately keep the price from passing.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "1pye5s5j", "data": {"text": "The week before last, the specialists sold on the facts, which partially unloaded positions. The question remains: did insiders buy on Friday on rumors, or did retail traders lift the price?", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}], "version": 1}