Available Insights: Crypto Exchanges (17-22/11)

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The cryptocurrency market continued its decline. The reasons are still the same: risk-off in the markets, which means moving into cash first from high-risk assets, and then from other assets too. Which assets bitcoin belongs to, let alone alts and shitcoins, decide for yourself. The market has already decided everything for you and without you.

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A simple example. One of the early bitcoin holders has dumped coins worth about $1.3 billion since October 21. The exit price was very tasty. At the same time, in just one hour on November 21, more than 400,000 lemmings, sorry, traders lost roughly a billion dollars. A funny coincidence.

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From the list of news related to the crypto market, we note a piece in France's Le Monde in which the author discussed the murder of Ukrainian crypto guy Konstantin Ganich in light of the worldwide scandal over money laundering at Energoatom under the Mindich scheme. If initially people said Ganich lost serious Ukrainian figures' money on volatility and paid for it with his life, then in light of the new facts everything becomes much more interesting. The man parted with his life not because of losing money, but because of thoughtless participation in a scheme to steal state funds at the very highest level.

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The news about El Salvador's recent purchase of $100 million worth of bitcoin did not escape our attention either. In the previous story with Ukrainian money, the amount of one hundred million bucks also appeared, but we will not force the issue. In any case, again just a funny coincidence.

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And finally, a knockout from JPMorgan. They allowed for the exclusion of crypto companies from the MSCI and Nasdaq 100 indexes, among them Strategy. By the way, Strategy shares have lost about 70% of their value over the year. Operating losses from crypto activity will begin if the bitcoin price falls below $74,433.

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In general, the past week can be characterized very simply: while crypto folks were looking for an entry point into buys wherever they could, smarter players were unloading the coins left on their balances to them, finishing them off with futures shorts as well. Of course, futures shorts, like put options, can be used to hedge the underlying asset, but we will not go into schemes for constructing risk-free positions.

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In the outgoing week, the decline in the value of the main coin proceeded with obvious acceleration. At the same time, there is a small probability that the main fall is already behind us.

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Thus, on one of the most liquid crypto exchanges on Friday, 69 thousand coins were turned over. For such volume, volatility was quite low: only about 6 thousand dollars. For comparison: on October 10, when 64.2 thousand coins were turned over on the same exchange, volatility reached 20 thousand dollars.

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On Friday, the main volumes passed in the 82000-85000 range. And this is the zone of extremely aggressive buying from mid-April 2025. We are seeing a clear attempt to buy back on extremely high volumes in the previous zone of net buying.

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Let's build a chart of the short impulse from October 27. Even within the short impulse, the quote is at the -2 VWAP deviation, which indicates serious oversold conditions.

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In short impulses, they usually brake in such a place at high turnover. Due to risk-off in the markets, one should not count on a reversal, but a likely rebound somewhere to the -1 VWAP deviation and the 91300-92700 range is quite possible. Even with very strong positives, a pullback above the 95000-97500 range is unlikely.

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Let's return to what happened. Since Monday, they were falling on good volumes. Moreover, on Thursday they showed a sales imbalance around 88-89 thousand. This model may have continuation to the short side, but oversold conditions need to be removed through sideways movement or a pullback to the levels indicated above.

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It is most reasonable to regard Friday's volume as a braking one. They may not let it go much lower, or they may push it a bit with a return. They may even return to the 90-95 thousand area to move into a long sideways range. But playing a reversal into buy right now is extremely risky, and therefore pointless.

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In general, there is a potential signal of the decline slowing and a likely transition into a long sideways range, possibly with a short bias if no positive news appears in the stock market.

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Solana continued its planned decline. So planned, in fact, that it is even a little annoying that the whole stack was not poured into a short from Monday.

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All week, trading stayed in the 143-124 range. They are closing the week closer to 124. Volumes have grown somewhat, but they are not enough to sharply pull the quote northward.

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The coming week may pass under the sign of uncertainty. The upper boundary is around 145 bucks per coin, though a manipulation toward 155 will not be considered a change in dynamics either. For now it is premature to talk about such manipulations, but why would the market maker not shake out the short sellers.

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There is no lower boundary yet, but we can quite possibly reach 110. Trading like this from current levels is contraindicated. After all, at this stage the decline, while systematic, is not impulsive in nature.

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Therefore, one should jump into the deep end only after weighing all the pros and cons.

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Ether is not lagging behind its peers: it is also all in shorts. For more than two weeks already, there has not been a single attempt just to take out sellers' stops.

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They did not even try to hold the 3160-3230 range, and already last Sunday they began pressing downward, so that by Wednesday they had finally said goodbye to this range. The extreme sales are hanging in the 3015-3045 range.

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In turn, in the very wide 2680-2850 range, if buyers do not appear, then some slowing of active sell-offs is possible. This is not mandatory, but quite likely.

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In any case, buys are contraindicated, and if they continue the short, they will give an entry at a good price. Even if it is the current price, it will already have been formed as a proper short.

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Across all key crypto assets, large volumes went through at the lows on Friday. Usually such stories, if the dynamics do not continue already the next day, hint at least at a stop. And after the stop it will become clear where to look next: north, south, or simply right.

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