Cryptocurrencies: review and forecast for February 08-14

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Either John Rockefeller or Nathan Rothschild once said that one should buy when “blood is flowing.” For the former, it was definitely about the stock market; for the latter, also about the stock market, but against the backdrop of the war with Napoleon.

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Why this historical reference? Because all week the news feeds were full of headlines like “Such-and-such whale lost a billion on crypto,” “That same insider dumped two billion,” and so on.

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The chart looked worst of all on Thursday and Friday. However, yours truly warned about this a week ago.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "p0qu76tb", "data": {"text": "Crypto is collapsing. The sharp rise in volumes on Saturday, January 31, looks especially suspicious. As if all liquidity was being gathered in order to start a new life on Monday. For example, even lower.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "vfh9bruj", "data": {"html": "

Panic among market participants continues even on Saturday, February 7.

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Fear is at 6, although the day before it was 9: panic has taken hold of the broad masses.

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But is everything really that scary? Let us see what the markets are showing us. And they are showing us, perhaps, even a bottom, but this needs to be checked and discussed.

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I will start with the traditional self-quotation:

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "rm5t4y9q", "data": {"text": "Bitcoin has moved into a fairly confident short impulse. If they hold 80000 and go below 77000, then buying is absolutely out of the question. And it is especially impossible to buy if the price suddenly collapses from 79000 without even letting participants trade the imbalance in the 79300-80000 area.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "hxiah8l8", "data": {"html": "

Before looking at the coin on the largest exchange, let us assess the situation with the BTC futures contract, which is quoted on CME, i.e. where they determine the value of everything under the sun. Well, or almost everything.

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Monday opened with a strong gap down (on normal exchanges there is no trading on weekends). Earlier, I showed that gaps when exiting a balance are a very strong signal of the start of an impulse. And if we add to this the fact that on Saturday, January 31, there were trading volumes extremely rare for a weekend, and moreover one-directional, then already on Monday it became clear which way the wind was blowing.

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Why am I showing this futures contract? Because sometimes it shows something that may not be very visible on the coins.

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Here, for example, is how the bottom was formed on this futures contract on Thursday. The most contracts (4000) were turned over at 14:00 Chicago time. The range was 63595-64000. It was precisely this money that became support on Friday, and from there the price calmly moved above 70000 without any resistance.

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This is a very strong signal that the sellers are finished.

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Now let's move on to the daily BTC cluster chart.

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And here we see simply spectacular growth in volumes: on Thursday 106.3 thousand coins, on Friday another 92.5 thousand coins. On Saturday, by the way, already more than 47 thousand; they may even reach 50 thousand. This is a colossal liquidity collection.

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And this is how a bottom is most often formed.

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On the hourly chart, let's plot the entire impulse wave from January 28. After that there were no serious stops.

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We see that the impulse has ended: the price has almost returned to VWAP. And we are hanging ABOVE all the serious tactical (or perhaps strategic) money. I will repeat the point: the quote easily moved above all the largest liquid ejections on Thursday.

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Sellers do not work like that. They simply do not. Never.

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I drew a descending trend line. It is exactly a great place for a short. Maybe it will even turn into a double bottom, or no further than 64000. It is not worth trying. If the stock market flies north, then crypto may perk up a little. Especially given the money that is being poured in at the bottom.

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And finally, I will show only Thursday, Friday, and Saturday (February 5-7). I will highlight only the most important zones where market participants worked most aggressively.

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They began catching it at 67000-67700, although they dumped it at 68000-68400. And now pay attention to where they are holding the quote.

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Money came through at the lows in 63400-64200 (above I show the futures chart — it is the same place). And everything below is a lot of money for a reversal. A pure reversal at the end of the day, i.e. at the very beginning. Just as before, at a similar time (00:00 hours), sales were poured in during the last month.

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What conclusions? There are two.

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Or through a small balance we move toward 80 thousand, and then we will look further. And this is a reversal.

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Or we move into a balance between 63-64 thousand and 71-72 thousand. The balance timeframe is from several days until the printing press is launched by the new head of the Fed. And this will be a fix with a transition into balance.

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In any case, the collapse is over. But whether there will be a reverse or it will stand still — we will find out soon.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "q96ewiox", "data": {"text": "SOL Cryptocurrency", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "expfuqxw", "data": {"html": "

The Solana cryptocurrency showed a similar scheme. Only it is even more oversold than Bitcoin.

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The last short was loaded in the 98-106 range. And in the 77-88 range they showed a similar fixation model (not yet a reversal).

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Considering that Solana is far from Bitcoin, I do not expect a very strong reverse reaction here. For that, more money still needs to be brought into the market. So here I expect fairly prolonged volume rotations. Maybe without going below 80, but clearly not above 106.

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I will also show that at the very lows on Solana, 3.1 million coins were turned over in an hour. This is more than on a third of the days or even half of the days. And this was at the very bottom, after which it moved into a reversal. And before that, by the way, another 1.4 million coins were traded in the 78-80 range.

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I think there is no need to say anything more. Everything is already perfectly clear.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "a6d7k3nw", "data": {"text": "ETH Cryptocurrency", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "d5z5n8tu", "data": {"html": "

It looks like Vitalik Buterin is preparing to earn money for new socks. How else can the halt in Ether's decline be explained? There is not even any desire to show levels and ranges — the instrument is extremely volatile, and on days like these everything is completely difficult.

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I will show only one notable thing. The maximum volumes on Thursday and Friday were loaded at the same time as everywhere else: twice 250+ thousand per hour and once 221 thousand per hour.

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But on Saturday, on ETH alone, someone went and bought out another 308 thousand coins. More precisely, someone dumped them, and someone bought in the 2040–2070 range. This is higher than all the volumes on Thursday and Friday, and there was no short reaction.

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Of course, we may see this reaction later. But this will already be a game in balance with a return.

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And we may also see this array being held (although on Ether, false breakouts will definitely happen).

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That is how things are.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "6h2k8arh", "data": {"text": "Conclusion", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "elojmwk2", "data": {"html": "

The crash is over. The fix has been marked.

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The only question is whether we go into a sharp V-reversal or stand until the Fed's printing press is switched on.

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If we go into a reversal, then we need to watch the reaction to the balances (consolidations) of November-January. And if we stand, there may even be some updates of price lows, but that is no longer about a crash, but about balance.

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There are no other questions.

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