U.S. Stock Market Futures: Review and Forecast for the Week of 15-19/12

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The main event of the past week was the Fed's interest-rate announcement and Powell's press conference, to which futures as a whole reacted rather weakly. Rates were expectedly cut by 0.25%, with two committee members opposing the cut, and one arguing for a 0.5% cut at once.

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If the Fed is now assuming one rate cut in 2026, the market is hoping for two cuts. We will find out who is right next year.

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Powell quite expectedly presented a monthly Treasury bill purchase program worth $40 billion. This is not QE in its pure form, but still clear budget support: a quarter of the U.S. Treasury's funding needs will be covered.

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Powell reported a cooling labor market and rising risks of higher inflation. The GDP growth forecast for 2026 was raised from 1.8 to 2.3%.

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Some indices (Dow Jones and Russell) and, accordingly, index futures updated historical highs: in the former, the weight of tech giants is relatively low, while the latter tracks companies with small capitalization by U.S. standards.

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But the S&P500 and Nasdaq-100 indices, where the weight of tech giants reaches 30%, failed to make a new high, although the former came very close.

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As for the functioning of the markets specifically, liquidity shifting has begun in quarterly derivatives (futures and options) - the rollover. The main shifting will take place next week.

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Liquidity in this futures contract stayed within a two-week range: this can still be viewed as the accumulation of some liquidity, including to the upside. In fact, they worked over the two-week support in the 6797-6817 range after a puncture and reversal from the 6870-6910 resistance range.

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It is worth separately noting a small increase in volumes in ES futures on Friday at the lows: there was interest from participants here, and we will see who wins and join in.

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Futures shifting most often takes place within certain ranges, so I would not be surprised if we can continue to work within +/- 6800-6900.

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However, a smooth futures decline toward 6750, as well as a smooth rise toward 6950, is also not ruled out. Or perhaps they will simply swing the quote within these boundaries. During rollover, there are also often sharp hits with equally sharp returns. Those who trade have seen it.

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This is all on the daily chart, while the clean RTH week (exchange working hours over the last hundred years), on which the rollover began, does not look so optimistic.

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There is not much liquidity in the 6797-6817 support range. This is more likely imbalance liquidity: the first buying in a new value area. In the picture above, this is clearly visible if you look at the daily cluster from December 26. And there were also some volumes here during the contract.

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But the fresh support from the week before last in the 6827.5-6842.5 range has so far only been pierced, and this can probably be assessed as stop removal and volume accumulation for a reversal back. But one needs to be attentive.

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I will separately point out that on Thursday America opened lower and traded through Wednesday's range. On Friday, they also opened slightly below the close, after which they already collapsed to the lows.

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If America opens on Monday below 6812-6817, then an attempt to expand toward 6750 can be expected, which I mentioned above. Another option for continuing the downward dynamics is possible if volumes are accumulated on Monday-Tuesday in the +/- 6800-6830 range (tails to 6850) with a move below 6810, if not on Tuesday after 12 noon CT (Chicago time), then from around 9-9:30 CT on Wednesday.

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Buyers need to consolidate above 6840 by Monday's close with an assault on 6860 (last week's VWAP). As it is, on Monday and possibly Tuesday, volumes can be accumulated in the 6840-6860 range in order to move again toward 6900 or higher.

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A move toward 6885 and dangling around 6840 is also not excluded.

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In general, rollover and balance, which means multidirectional dynamics can be expected.

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On the NQ futures, the short protection model worked out fairly well, although it is hard to say how strong this model is. In other words, this futures contract showed an attempt to expand out of a two-week range. What actually happened, let us try to figure it out.

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For two weeks, volumes were accumulated in the 22570-25740 range. This generally coincides with the sales accumulation range in the first half of November.

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On Friday, on the highest volumes in three weeks, the quote was expanded short: the Nasdaq-100 index was pulled down by Oracle, which published a less than bright quarterly report.

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On Friday, the main volumes passed at the lows in the 25190-25280 support range. Some real volumes passed from 25400. The quote pierced the support, stopping above the VWAP of the entire contract.

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Usually such a sharp expansion requires continuation of the southern dynamics on Monday at least to 24900-25000, even with a return already on Tuesday. It may even touch 24700 (-1 deviation of the quarterly VWAP).

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However, no one rules out a reverse move from Monday-Tuesday toward 25500-25600. Rollover is always quite unpredictable, especially in the middle of a complex contract balance.

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Of course, if we look only at regular U.S. trading (RTH), we see that on Thursday they went to a three-day re-low, albeit with trading through the imbalance. And on Friday they simply opened between VWAP and the week's -1 deviation, collected short liquidity in the initial balance over half an hour, and went almost 2% south.

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If sellers are more active at the start of the week, they need to defend 25310-25380: some liquidity passed through here, which after 12 CT showed itself as resistance. This same range is UNDER Thursday's lows. That is, within the classic story, one can touch it from below and go in the direction I wrote about above.

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Buyers need to return sharply above 25400 and work toward 25500 in order to collect liquidity precisely around 25400-25550. This will give some chance of moving above last week's average.

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However, one of the descending balance schemes implies accumulation of volumes in 25400-25550 with a subsequent small expansion below Friday. And this is likely in rollover week.

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Here they worked out exactly according to the plan voiced in the previous review. I will even do some self-quoting:

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "s5s0229w", "data": {"text": "A slightly deeper correction is possible on this future than on the previous instruments. This is related to the volume accumulation model. Here, work is called for at the start of the coming week in the 47650-47900 range.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "a6i6y901", "data": {"alt": "YM Futures", "url": "/uploads/2025/12/2025-12-13_22-42-02-1100x571.png", "size": "100%", "align": "center", "caption": "", "linkUrl": ""}, "type": "image"}, {"id": "2muod1wt", "data": {"html": "

That is exactly what they did. They even pushed another 150-160 ticks lower with a tail, but that was more likely manipulation.

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And on Thursday they made the planned re-high. Self-quoting again:

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "ekw9pecz", "data": {"text": "What matters is the very fact that players are determined. Patterns like this do not often form on this type of chart. It looks very much like preparation for strong movement.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "ve220y8c", "data": {"html": "

On Friday they held the 48230-48450 range, where in November they sharply threw reversal volumes into shorts. For now they are pretending to be preparing for further northern movement through a certain flat range. But is that really so?

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Let's look at last week's RTH.

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On the one hand, there are no gaps between sessions: the lack of volatile stocks within the index is making itself felt. Friday's short-side hit looks quite like trading through the expansion to accumulate northern volumes.

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Buyers must confidently build volumes above 48450 and move above 48660-48700 in order to talk about holding within the new value area. We may see this on Monday.

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But there is another side as well. And on this side we see an imbalance in the 48570-48660 range, which occurred after volumes were built within Friday's initial balance and Thursday's fixing: let this be the 48740-48840 range.

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A disbalance (imbalance) is a zone where there is no liquidity, but there is a serious dominance of market players, in this case sellers.

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In addition, after lunch, having slightly traded through (again on low liquidity) part of the imbalance range, they went to work lower. As a result, we have a flat range at the lows under the +1 deviation of the weekly VWAP. Such an accumulation scheme (a hit from the +2 to the +1 VWAP deviation) with building in a flat range slightly below the deviation often hints at a move to the mean and even, with accumulated volumes present, lower.

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At the start of the week we watch 48700: they may even touch it within the short. But it also would not be shameful to go lower without piercing 48600.

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They should load on Monday, and move on Tuesday to 47900–48000. Or move on Monday to last week's average VWAP around 48200 and by 48100, so that on Tuesday they can work in a descending balance to 47900–48000 from 48200–48350.

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Next week is the rollover on quarterly futures. Most likely we will see dynamics inside the value area of the entire contract.

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Some kind of southern decline seems more of a priority everywhere. However, on ES and YM it is possible to hold the breakout zone.

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Respectfully,
Ivan Rusin

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