US stock market futures: overview and forecast for 20-24/04/2026

Last week passed under the sign of peace talks between the US and Iran. By the end of the week, Trump, with a broad gesture, lifted the American blockade from the Strait of Hormuz. Traditionally, as soon as the markets closed, Iran responded that ports need to stop being blocked.

Be that as it may, stock index futures are extremely optimistic. Almost all instruments (except the Dow) updated their historical highs. This is the classic game of "buy the rumors and sell the facts." There are not many facts yet, but on rumors one can keep rising.

Still, the growth is driven by optimism in the technology sector. But the question remains: where to get rare earth metals, cheap energy, water, copper, and so on to provide the basic infrastructure for AI.

Against the backdrop of boundless optimism, the VIX volatility index reached 20 points. At the same time, on April 14 they rolled 2.34 million contracts on paper. There had not been that many either before the conflict began or after.

So we are watching VIX: if it grows above 22 and the stock market starts to fall, then there is a high probability of a serious decline. And if VIX goes below 18-20, then funds will still have the time and strength for another extension to the north.

And now let us talk about ES / YM / NQ futures. It is difficult to talk because I missed the reversal moment, not believing that the market was showing the strongest buy impulse.

YM futures are lagging behind other stock index futures. Players managed to overcome the resistance zone in the 49350-49750 range (weekly chart). If we proceed from the idea that market sentiment is unlikely to change in the coming weeks, then the 50000 mark will be reached very soon.

Now let us move on to the analysis of the daily timeframe.

In the previous review, I said that it was necessary to trade through the volume gap formed in the post-market on April 7. But they did not do that. And they did not necessarily have to, considering the market structure.

Overbought conditions were removed through a flat in the general 47830-48150 range. Overall, this happened back in the week before last. During the outgoing week from Tuesday to Thursday (April 14-16), liquidity was gathered in the range where the VAL zone is 48370-48400, and the VAH zone is 48670-48800.

Already on Friday, April 17, the quote gave another impulse. This is the third extension to buy. And usually the third extension is the last.

Friday closed at the very highs - the 49640-49810 range. Push liquidity is located in the 49290-49360 range.

And again, as last week, I will talk about the need for reverse trade-through. I just cannot proceed from the idea that the guys are ready to keep driving the quote north through flats.

This idea is also supported by the sharply increased open interest on Friday at the highs. This is how they usually prepare a reversal, even if tactical.

The next point speaking in favor of the probability of a reversal is the weekly and daily close around the +2 deviation from the buy impulse that began on March 30. Usually in such models they trade through toward the +1 or +1.5 deviation if the mood is extremely aggressive.

Overall, I would expect a trade-through to 49000 for sure, and there by Wednesday they may even show 48000.

An alternative is to move north again by Wednesday-Thursday through a flat not below 49000.

Another alternative is to gather liquidity closer to 50000, which can first be distributed as a pullback to the south. That is Tuesday-Wednesday.

ES futures updated the historical high by 2%. This is a very serious result on a high base. Over three weeks, the growth was about 11.5%..

It gives the impression that the quote is aimed toward 7300, but let us not guess in advance.

On the daily cluster chart, the situation is also quite unambiguous. If on YM futures there was at least a three-day liquidity build-up in a flat, which makes the growth more stable, then on ES futures there was consolidation only on Thursday, April 16, in the 7058-7080 range.

The week was closed in the 7152-7176 range, and they broke into the range after aggressively gathering liquidity in the 7120-7138 area.

What is the plan? My opinion is simple: a pullback to 7058-7080, or maybe immediately to 6988-7006. If they go no farther than 7050, then they may move into rotations of 7050-7150 or 6950-7050.

I do not see a continuation of violent growth, but Trump may arrange even more than that.

And the last futures for today. The NQ paper showed colossal growth of about 15%.

The futures are much closer to the potential target than other quotes (+2 deviation from the VWAP impulse from April 2025). And judging by the news available on April 19, there is no reason to change optimism for fear.

If we talk about the daily timeframe, then it is worth paying close attention to the following points.

The main support zone is located in the 25000-25350 range. It was exactly from here that they started on April 13. Every day, except Thursday, had an impulsive look. And Thursday itself, if viewed within intraday movement, was a place for loading additional volume for the next move.

In any case, Thursday's range (if taken very broadly, then 23600-26500) can safely be highlighted as a support range. Of course, a pullback to 25900-26000 is also possible if buyers switch to normal work.

The weekly close took place in the 26990-26875 range - around the +2 deviation from the VWAP impulse. So far it is hard to believe that on Monday the Americans will be ready to work higher, but we shall see.