U.S. Stock Market Futures: Forecast for 01/12-16/2026

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Before discussing futures on the main U.S. stock indices, let's go over the market-moving news.

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The past week was marked by a U.S. attack on Venezuela. Within just a few hours, Trump said that now oil from the Orinoco River basin would fall into the hands of the right guys.

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Note that Venezuelan oil never fully left the hands of Chevron (ticker CVX on the NYSE, included in the DJ-30 index). Maduro has repeatedly said that he supports Chevron working in Venezuela for “another 100 years.” Well, everything is going just as he bequeathed.

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In any case, the stock market reacted positively to the American operation in Venezuela.

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On January 9, a U.S. Supreme Court hearing on the legality of the tariffs introduced by Trump in the spring passed quietly and unnoticed. The decision was postponed to another time. And really, there are more pressing matters now. The market reacted generally calmly, continuing the dynamic that began at the start of the year.

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And finally, Trump again, who somehow managed to post December U.S. employment data on his social network Truth Social. Although this is a complete breach of protocol, there was no surge in trading volumes either before or after the message.

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Now let's move on to the futures review and probabilistic forecasts of their behavior.

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The ES futures quote is in an impulsive move. The overall buy impulse began on November 21 and is still continuing. Now the quote is either breaking out of balance into the third expansion, or preparing to complete the third expansion and move into a medium-term balance.

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Key support is in the 6825–6870 range. Fresh liquidity for the March contract was loaded here, liquidity from the December contract was unloaded, and they worked quite well in stocks.

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Within the impulse, current support is in the 6879–6894 range. Here, on January 2, before the special Venezuelan operation, buyers did some work, but not very aggressively.

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Within volume rotations, the 6945-6965 range is worth highlighting. In this range, liquidity was loaded before the New Year, which had a slight short-side distribution within the balance. During the outgoing week, the main liquidity was placed right here as well.

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Of course, the 6978–6990 range is also worth noting. Rotations also took place here during the week.

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The general scenario for the second week of January implies consolidation at the achieved levels. The POC levels of the last two weeks may act as support (6950–6960).

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In a more aggressive scenario, buyers will not let it go below 6980: let me remind you that the 6978-6990 array may act as support.

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For finer adjustment, let's assess RTH.

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The week's initial balance is in the 6938-6946 range. They carefully picked it up there on Monday, and tested it with tails on Thursday. The main liquid core is in the 6951-6964 range. The main money was placed here on Thursday.

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The most interesting zone for looking for buys in the first half of the week is in the 6968–6980 range. This is an imbalance zone, where only on Tuesday they took something within the buy impulse.

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At the same time, one must realize that if the impulse dynamics are confirmed on Monday-Tuesday, they may not even enter here, limiting themselves to adding volumes in the 6983-6991 range.

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In any case, the profile of the past week looks such that next week it can be traded in the opposite direction while holding the week's POC (6960). Unless, of course, the new week starts with a northern expansion.

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If ES shows decent dynamics with new all-time highs, then the NQ futures look relatively weak: the corrections are deeper, and it still cannot jump above the short-imbalance zone (25870-2606), which was formed back in early November.

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On the other hand, the liquidity loading range in the initial balance of the March contract (25570-25760) looks more impressive than on ES.

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In the coming week, we may well witness and even participate in the start of new northern dynamics after a confident consolidation above 26200 right from Monday.

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At the same time, some work in 25850-26100 may be needed to move higher. And, of course, we monitor 25750-25800 at the start of next week: they may make a move here to test support and go higher.

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To build a more accurate plan for next week, let's look only at RTH.

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If buyers do not feel very confident, they may touch from above or even work briefly in the 25805–25840 range. But the main work is still more likely above 25850.

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If on the ES futures we looked only at the impulse, and on NQ at the whole balance, then on the YM futures we will look only at the March contract.

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YM is the most successful futures contract among those we are considering (only RTY showed a better result). And this success is the direct influence of the Venezuelan story on traditional sectors of the economy.

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As everywhere, a northward impulse began on the stock market before last weekend. Liquidity loading took place, in essence, at the lows of the contract's initial balance in the 48335–48480 range. And the range of the initial balance itself is 48240–48840.

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By Tuesday-Wednesday they almost touched 49900, but fell short by a couple dozen ticks.

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On Wednesday they moved into trading through the week's expansion. On Thursday they showed a bottom at the upper boundary of the money thrown in on December 26 in the 48975-49005 range. The week's volume high formed in the 49715-49775 area.

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The scheme as a whole suggests some more work in the array of the past week. After all, we have only the second touch of 49715–49775, and it seems that something is missing for a breakout higher. But what exactly is missing, we will consider on RTH.

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The week opened with a strong buy impulse. In fact, there is no liquidity below 49000, which means there is a new zone of supply and demand balance.

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If we look for a classic model of dynamic continuation, then we need to see some kind of reverse trading no farther than the 49095-49245 range. But this is not mandatory if there is a strong buyer. And there is a strong buyer.

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How do we determine the presence of a strong buyer in this scheme? Very simply. We see an accumulation of a good flat area in the form of a dense balance in the 49710-49750 range before the close of the American session on Tuesday. And we see the same thing, but already on Friday.

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In total, within these 40 points the specialist accumulated 30 thousand contracts. After the first accumulation, there was a decent reverse reaction down by 1.38%.

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On Monday, most likely, there will also be a reverse reaction, but it is very likely that sellers will not be able to push the quote below the 49480–49530 range, where on Wednesday, by the way, there was a similar flat area, and also after aggressive growth.

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We should also note that Weiss Wave reached 142 thousand contracts in the current wave (that is a lot). In the decline wave, only 79 thousand were accumulated, which is half as much. And this is with a generally comparable range.

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Thus, if the most aggressive scenario does not develop with America opening above 49800 and another expansion of 500-700 points, then it is worth looking for buys no further than 49480-49530. Although, with a transition into a longer balance, they may trade in the 49250-49500 area.

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In the coming week, it is worth expecting either a continuation of the northward dynamic or a certain balance for further accumulation of liquidity for this expansion.

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With a sharp rise on Monday, it is worth expecting a repeat of the scenarios from the current week. When looking for an entry point inside last week's arrays, we watch the behavior of players in the reviewed ranges.

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