Cryptocurrencies: review and forecast for December 8-12

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Over the past week, many materials came out on the topic that the altcoin market is more dead than alive. The market has piles of outright junk, which means the amount of money is distributed across all the junk, and therefore there is simply not enough fuel to pump anything. Separately, it was mentioned that retail money is fleeing from cryptocurrency into crypto futures on stocks. My comment: after getting burned on altcoins, you will not necessarily make money betting on stocks.

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Social media is admiring the founder of Binance, who presented Peter Schiff (a gold investor and opponent of investing in bitcoin) with a fake gold bar and asked him to guess whether the gold was real or not. Crypto people are happy about how they put the retrograde Schiff in his place. Meanwhile, Tether continues buying gold as collateral for its crypto dollar. Probably not for no reason.

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By the way, more about crypto people. Moodring and TradingView decided to take care of them: the release of a special ring is planned, vibrating and changing color when the prices of purchased cryptocurrencies change. To me, this is the height of mockery of traders' nerves.

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The main cryptocurrency continued to dangle in a potential demand zone at yearly lows. Any market positivity has no effect on exiting consolidation.

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Can we say that the quote has stopped and everything is now boring?

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No, of course. Last week's range was about 10 thousand dollars; in points it is even scary to imagine - roughly a million pips. With such a movement range, spot trading, potentially giving up to 10% a week, is very good, not to mention leveraged trading. But there they punish very harshly too: leveraged traders are liquidated daily for millions of dollars.

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The consolidation (balance) phase that bitcoin is in implies, on the one hand, work within understandable boundaries, and on the other, a constant shift of volume zones.

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The current key positioning resistance is still in the 95000-97500 range. Maybe they will drop in there on Wednesday-Thursday, when the Fed announces a rate cut.

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Current support is in the 82000-85000 range. On Monday, it very briskly fell here from tactical resistance in the 91300-92700 range. At that point, a little under 35 thousand coins were turned over on the largest crypto exchange, after which the bitcoin quote was sharply reversed, allowing it to move above the 91300-92700 range. In fact, the week's core was formed in the 91900-93500 range, after which on Friday it touched 88000 again.

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At the current stage, it is difficult to talk about any dynamics in the quote of the main cryptocurrency other than sideways movement (balance). I wrote a little higher about the potential for movement toward 95-97.5 thousand. At the same time, it is worth understanding that 95 thousand may hold, after which an attempt is possible to touch 80-82 thousand dollars per coin again.

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In general, the expectation of sideways movement with boundary pierces is the priority. Until hot money appears on the market, no one will push quotes north.

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Due to the fact that bitcoin is in a sideways market, there is reason to move down to a lower timeframe.

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Net local sales are loaded in the 92700-93500 range. You can take from below and at 92000, but in this view it is not critical.

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On Friday, bitcoin was dropped from the 90850-91350 range. This is classic volume repositioning into short: from Tuesday to Thursday, price support was located here. For now, the 89950-90350 range is also acting as resistance: on December 2, volumes passed here to push into buy. Now positioning is not yet short, but the upward move from December 2 has been definitively broken.

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Current support is in the 88400-89200 range. Volumes were placed aggressively here on December 5, and the first liquidity for pushing on December 2 was also here.

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And the key support array is located in the 85800-87400 range. They were working directly for a reversal here on Monday and Tuesday.

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Within the current game, one can expect both a sharp return toward 92 thousand and slightly higher, and a descent toward last week's lows. Both options at the moment look, if not equally probable, then quite equivalent.

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On Solana, fundamentally nothing has changed since last week. Except that the 137-144 range has finally stopped being an array of tactical loading / reloading of sales, and has become a full-fledged core in which the main funds have already been rotating for almost a month.

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On the other hand, the quote of this cryptocurrency does not really go above the 137-144 array. If some money was still rotating at the 145 mark, then above and all the way up to 154-157 there is not much money at all - this is a typical imbalance.

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In a normal situation, when moving into a medium-term balance, imbalances of this kind are traded through and become the upper part of the value zone.

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In the case that is now developing on Solana, one can discern buyer weakness. As soon as sharp sales of Solana begin, the quote will aggressively roll downward. But if there is a strike above 145-146, the accumulated liquidity will definitely be enough to reach 175 and higher very quickly.

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We will not guess, we will simply watch what happens with the quote of this cryptocurrency. In the coming days, they may show some interesting model that will provide an opportunity to join. If it is completely unbearable, then one can look for a short to 125. But that is not interesting at all.

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In the past week, the most interesting events unfolded on Ether - the second most popular cryptocurrency.

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On Monday, December 1, they went into the 2680-2850 support range, where the quote was reversed on increased turnover. There was enough liquidity to test the last obvious loading into short in the 3160-3230 range: that is 16.5% of movement by high-low within the week.

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In addition, ether returned to the 3000-3050 range on Friday: this is slightly better than other cryptocurrencies.

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True, here too it is not entirely clear what plans they currently have. They may try to work in the 3000-3200 range, or they may work lower as well, in the 2800-3000 range.

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Sideways is the most expected movement for the coming week across all major cryptocurrencies.

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On Wednesday-Thursday, one should expect a certain northward strike due to the Fed rate cut. But most likely, this strike will very probably fizzle out, and quotes will return to balance or even try the current lows for strength.

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For full-fledged growth, liquidity must appear in the system. Right now there is not enough institutional liquidity; even ordinary crypto folks are not adding fresh money to the market. And without fuel, cryptocurrencies will not go anywhere.

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