Cryptocurrency: Review and Forecast for April 12-18

Good afternoon!

The previous week was quite eventful in terms of news. It all started with reports about talks on a ceasefire or even peace between the United States and Iran, until news came out that the parties had not reached agreement.

Against this backdrop, cryptocurrency rose in price, but within the balances (value zones) set in the first ten days of February. Trading turnover on Binance increased relative to the previous week, but overall trading volumes of crypto spot are closer to multi-year lows.

Before moving on to the analysis of volume placements on BTC / ETH / SOL, I will tell you about the most interesting news, in my opinion, from the world of cryptocurrencies.

Very soon, laws will be adopted in Russia that will make it possible to create a mechanism for accounting and transferring rights to cryptocurrency. Notaries and lawyers are already rubbing their hands greedily: the former will have enough inheritance cases, while the latter are more interested in helping those crypto owners who are dividing common property (getting divorced, in simple terms).

The CME exchange continues to put its sticky hands into cryptocurrencies: the launch of futures and micro futures on #AVAX (5000 and 500 AVAX) and #SUI (50000 and 5000 SUI) is scheduled for May 4.

The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network of the U.S. Treasury Department (FinCEN), together with the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), has prepared a draft rule requiring issuers of permitted payment stablecoins (PPSI) to counter money laundering and sanctions evasion.

Under the new rule, PPSI will have to block, freeze, and refuse to process suspicious transactions. FinCEN expects that stablecoin issuers' programs will be able to identify and prevent suspicious operations, as well as determine which categories of clients and types of transactions require enhanced attention.

And the obvious cherry on the crypto cake. CIA General Counsel Michael Ellis stated: "Bitcoin is not truly anonymous... It is a tool that we use to collect intelligence information." In general, nothing unexpected.

And you say that cryptocurrency means anonymity and freedom.

In the previous review, I proceeded from the idea that the southern expansion was the priority. The most interesting thing is that this scenario is still valid. But first things first.

On the weekly bitcoin chart, it is clearly visible that the main cryptocurrency continues to remain in a tight sideways range of 66000-72000. The upper boundaries of the range are slightly pierced. At the same time, on such favorable news as a potential deal, players were unable to renew the March highs.

On the weekly chart, the model still implies the probability of another southern expansion, albeit a truncated one (from 50 to 57 thousand dollars per coin). At the same time, trading through 82-87 thousand dollars per coin now also does not look impossible.

In any case, the question is timing: each cluster (candle) on the weekly chart is a whole week. Another 7 candles, and summer will arrive.

Besides timing, weekly trading turnover must also be taken into account. It is not the lowest, but still lower than in the same place in 2024. And that means there is no fight. Whoever needed to leave the market left much earlier.

Now let us look at the current picture.

Volumes in the past week were placed in the 71000-73300 range. The week was closed near the lower boundary of this zone.

From above, growth was stopped by a mass of sales in the 73800-74300 range. Just like in a textbook, they touched the lower boundary of the tactical resistance zone. Thus, now we can talk about the third touch of the top and... And nothing more.

Of course, one can assume the formation of some bullish pattern. For this, in the strict version, it is necessary to move above 72 thousand from Monday. In softer versions, with a delay in the balance, this must be done either through 69 thousand or even through 67 thousand.

But personally, I believe it is too early to talk about an exit to the north (as, however, to the south), and I expect some trading out within the balance, i.e. work in the 67-72 thousand range.

We also need to look at the hourly timeframe. On the hourly chart, it turns out that bitcoin sat down on the impulse VWAP around 70800. Somewhere around 71500-72000 is a risk zone for buyers, i.e. they can easily be knocked lower. After all, the hourly impulse downward occurred on large turnover for a Sunday.

Solana cryptocurrency looks worse than bitcoin. And that is understandable. After all, Solana has far from the kind of market capitalization needed to count on anything incredible.

If bitcoin was pushed to the upper boundaries of the balance, then Solana remained near the lows just as it was. The lower boundary of the balance is in the 77-79 range, the upper boundary is in the 91-93 range. The point of control (POC) is at 85, and for 2 weeks already the quote has been hitting the POC from below.

On the lower timeframe, the situation looks as follows:

On April 7, growth was stopped extremely aggressively in the 85.30-86.50 range. The volumes are the highest for the week exactly here. From here, on Sunday, they also moved toward 81.50-82.70 on news about the end of dialogue between the United States and Iran. And it looks like they will try to pressure south again.

ETH cryptocurrency has drawn a model that is closer to bitcoin's model than to Solana's.

The week's liquidity was gathered clearly under the 2262-2286 array, where the quote was turned downward in mid-March. With the tail, it even entered the 2300-2326 array, touching the POC of that zone.

If buyers can still win, which I personally doubt, then they may buy through the 2130-2158 range. But it is better to look at buyers after consolidation above 2340.

And so, of course, it is difficult to figure out this balance, but it seems that they have not been somewhere around 1950 for a long time.