Cryptocurrency: Review and Forecast for April 19-25

The capitalization of the cryptocurrency market grew over the week from 2.4 to 2.6 trillion dollars. It would seem, here it is: happiness and the entry of serious players. But let us remember that capitalization is not equal to an inflow of fresh money.

No one bought 200 billion worth of cryptocurrency. There is simply so little liquidity here that relatively small fiat money affects capitalization disproportionately strongly. After all, this is a fairly conditional indicator, and it often does not reflect the real state of affairs.

Over the weekend, cryptocurrency lost all the capitalization it gained on Friday (now 2.55 trillion dollars). It would seem, nothing terrible; we are still growing anyway.

But let us look at the capitalization situation over the entire period. It is obvious that the current growth does not reflect the real market mood. The reason is obvious: there is no free money in the global financial system that can be directed into cryptocurrencies. Closing positions will be impossible, unlike in the stock market or even the commodity market. Losing 10% in stocks or even 30% in oil is not as bad as getting stuck for the full 50%, if not more (which is quite typical for crypto).

The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has risen sharply and is in a relatively comfortable zone. If this index on the CoinGlass website is in the fear zone (26), then on the Coinmarketcap website it has entered the neutral zone (55).

Why such a difference? The reason lies in different calculation methods. The Coinmarketcap fear index coincides with other indexes only on the most "scary" days, but usually it is much more positive.

In any case, retail has stepped back a little: memory is short, and they are not thinking about macro indicators.

If we talk about the news, then we should pay attention to possible criminal liability for organizing cryptocurrency circulation in Russia. Here it should be understood that intermediary services for accounting for (storing) digital currency, purchase and sale transactions, exchange, and transfer without the corresponding license from the Bank of Russia will fall under criminal liability.

So ordinary crypto users do not really need to worry much in this regard. But P2P traders and exchange offices should tense up. The solution is simple: obtain a license for activity from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

And now let us talk about the placement of BTC / ETH / SOL liquidity on Binance.

The first and leading cryptocurrency by capitalization, bitcoin, touched a key zone in the 77000-79000 range this past week, where sellers aggressively loaded liquidity from January 31 to February 3, 2026.

The main liquidity was gathered during the week in the 74200-74500 range. This is slightly higher than the previous selling from the 73800-74400 range.

It seems that the sellers' defense was broken through, but if we count it that way, then within the buy impulse it is necessary to hold the 73500-75000 range. Otherwise, we can talk about two alternatives.

The first alternative is to hold the 71400-72400 range and accumulate some liquidity over several days (3-7), which can later be distributed in some direction. But this will become clear later.

The second alternative implies a relatively sharp move (with a short consolidation over 1-2 days) down to 66600-69000.

And what if we think about a sharp rise? The weekend shows that there is no need to think about it. Consolidation above 79000 could open the way to 87000, but that is not here now.

The impulse chart from April 4 also shows that options with liquidity accumulation during the week somewhere slightly above the range or inside the 71400-72400 range itself look highly probable.

Solana ranks seventh by capitalization among all cryptocurrencies.

Unlike bitcoin, players poured very little money into this asset, which did not allow a manipulative move above resistance in the 91-93 range and a puncture of the VWAP of the medium-term short impulse.

As a week ago, the Solana quote is closing the week near the POC level of 2026, which is at 85 dollars per coin.

On the hourly chart, it is clearly visible that the maximum hourly volumes (1.4 million coins) within the current dynamics passed on April 17 in the 89-90.1 range on the second touch of the local top, after which the quote lost almost 2/3 of the last week's growth.

It seems that this is not how they buy. It is normal when they buy the high at market and let limit sellers-market makers exit. And it is quite normal that they roll back by the distance of the entire last impulse range.

But a number of factors (volume, loading of reverse liquidity actually at price highs, the strength of the pullback) suggest that the situation here is slightly different, which means a further decline down to 80 is very likely.

I did not indicate on the image a presumed test of the 89 level, but if it happens, then various options will open up.

Ether approached an insignificant sell array in the 2520-2550 range and from April 17 went south, like other instruments. A clean reverse was loaded in the 2420/2430-2440 range.

As the main array of the week and the range that was initially distributed into buy, and now with high probability is being prepared for repositioning, it is worth highlighting the 2310-2375 range, which also captures the short liquidity of mid-March.

Where can the quote be aiming?

And if growth starts from current levels?

And so, of course, according to the circumstances.