Cryptocurrency: review and forecast for April 19-25

The cryptocurrency market capitalization grew over the week from $2.4 trillion to $2.6 trillion. It would seem this is it: happiness and the arrival of serious players. But we remember that capitalization is not equal to an inflow of fresh money.

No one bought $200 billion worth of cryptocurrency. There is simply so little liquidity here that relatively small fiat money disproportionately affects capitalization. After all, this is a fairly conditional indicator, and it often does not reflect the real state of affairs.

Over the weekend, cryptocurrency lost all the capitalization gained on Friday (now $2.55 trillion). It would seem there is nothing scary here, we are still growing anyway.

But let us look at the capitalization situation over the entire period. It is obvious that the current growth does not reflect the real market mood. The reason is clear: there is no free money in the global financial system that can be directed into cryptocurrencies. It will be impossible to close positions, unlike the stock or even commodity market. Losing 10% in stocks or even 30% in oil is not as scary as getting stuck for all 50%, if not more (which is quite typical for crypto).

The cryptocurrency fear and greed index rose sharply and is in a relatively comfortable zone. If this index on the CoinGlass site is in the fear zone (26), then on the CoinMarketCap site it has entered the neutral zone (55).

Why such a difference? The reason is different calculation methodologies. The CoinMarketCap fear index coincides with other indexes only on the most "terrible" days, but it is usually much more positive.

In any case, retail has eased off a little - memory is short, and they do not think about macro indicators.

If we talk about the news, then we should pay attention to possible criminal liability for organizing cryptocurrency circulation in Russia. Here it must be understood that criminal liability will apply to intermediary services for accounting (storage) of digital currency, purchase and sale transactions, exchange, and transfer without the appropriate license from the Bank of Russia.

So ordinary crypto holders should not worry too much about this. But P2P traders and exchangers should tense up. The solution is simple: obtain a license for operations from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

And now let us talk about placing BTC / ETH / SOL liquidity on Binance.

The first and main cryptocurrency by capitalization - bitcoin - touched a key zone in the 77000-79000 range during the outgoing week, where sellers were aggressively loading liquidity from January 31 to February 3, 2026.

The main liquidity was accumulated during the week in the 74200-74500 range. This is slightly higher than the previous sales from the 73800-74400 range.

It seems that the sellers' defense was broken through, but if we count it that way, then within the buy impulse it is necessary to hold the 73500-75000 range. Otherwise, we can talk about two alternatives.

The first alternative consists in holding the 71400-72400 range and accumulating some liquidity over several days (3-7), which can then be distributed in some direction. But this will become clear later.

The second alternative implies a relatively sharp move (with a short consolidation for 1-2 days) down to 66600-69000.

And what if we think about a sharp rise? The weekend shows that there is no need to think about that. Consolidation above 79000 can open the road to 87000, but that is not there now.

The impulse chart from April 4 also shows that options with liquidity accumulation during the week somewhere a little above the range or in the 71400-72400 range itself look highly probable.

Solana ranks seventh by capitalization among all cryptocurrencies.

Unlike bitcoin, players in this asset poured in very little money, which did not allow a manipulative move above resistance in the 91-93 range and a puncture of the VWAP of the medium-term short impulse.

As a week ago, the Solana quote closes the week near the POC 2026 level, which is located at $85 per coin.

On the hourly chart, it is clearly visible that the maximum hourly volumes (1.4 million coins) within the current dynamics passed on April 17 in the 89-90.1 range on the second touch of the local top, after which the quote lost almost 2/3 of the growth of the last week.

It seems that this is not how they buy. It is normal when they buy the high at market and let limit-selling market makers get out. And it is quite normal that they pull back by the distance of the entire range of the last impulse.

But a number of factors (volume, loading of reverse liquidity virtually at price highs, the strength of the pullback) suggest that the situation here is slightly different, which means a further decline down to 80 is very likely.

I did not indicate the presumed test of level 89 on the image, but if it happens, then various options will open up.

Ether approached a minor sales cluster in the 2520-2550 range and from April 17 went south, like the other instruments. A clean reverse was loaded in the 2420/2430-2440 range.

As the main cluster of the week and the range that was initially distributed into the buy, but is now very likely preparing for repositioning, it is worth highlighting the 2310-2375 range, which also captures the short liquidity of mid-March.

What can the quote target?

And what if there is growth from current levels?

And otherwise, of course, it depends on the circumstances.