Cryptocurrencies: Review and Forecast for January 11-17

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The world of cryptocurrencies has its own manners and customs, strongly resembling the manners and customs of the stock market a hundred years ago.

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Here is a good example. They write that Donald Trump's fortune has increased threefold over the past year. And the main source of income is cryptocurrencies. I think there is no need to remind you how the U.S. president staged a pump and dump in crypto: some readers may even have got slightly burned on it.

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But Trump was not the only one who made money on cryptocurrencies. They say that the money earned on Polymarket from the bet on Maduro's arrest was withdrawn to the wallet of a certain Steven Charles Witkoff. The very same one who greatly praised chebureki in Moscow. At the same time, the winnings were almost immediately invested in the coin Fartcoin, which has added +40% since then.

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How lucky are those who know when and what to bet millions of dollars on.

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Important. Morgan Stanley filed an application with the SEC justifying the launch of an Ethereum ETF. The Morgans know what they are doing.

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Financial. Both Tether and Circle have printed a billion crypto-dollars each since the start of the year. The former say everything is backed by real assets, while the latter definitely have U.S. registration and state backing. So everything is fine.

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In the previous review, we talked about one of the ways of driving crypto traders into longs. And already from January 6 the entire news feed was full of reports that “whales are exiting, and dolphins after them,” etc. An ordinary crypto trader's head was boiling, while the deposit predictably sagged.

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Readers of our reviews knew perfectly well that the 95000-97500 range still serves as an insurmountable barrier for the main cryptocurrency. The bulls ran into exactly 95 thousand bucks.

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But as much as we might want to send bitcoin south, so far that is not in the market. We can even say that bitcoin managed to consolidate above the mark of 90 thousand dollars per coin.

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Such a balance model, which is now being drawn on bitcoin, very rarely has a chance to turn into a strong impulse. Within this model, attempts to break 95 thousand can be seen and even, perhaps, a touch of 100 thousand, but without significant consolidation.

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To consolidate above 95 thousand, fuel is needed, and there are problems with fuel, as we wrote above.

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Is a decline in bitcoin possible? Yes, I have drawn a possible ladder into a short. Moreover, I would like to see a normal W-shaped reversal model if they push north. And for that it needs to visit the 82000-85000 range. It was touched twice; a third time would not hurt. And if they go there, then later it will be possible to think...

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Now let's look at the hourly BTC cluster chart and try to find zones of increased interest.

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The smartest players very carefully unloaded positions at 93500-94450. There, in essence, they played out the taking of profit from the previous buy impulse. At the same time, they continued unloading in the 92450-93200 range, where there had been buyers before: a classic balance formation.

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The most interesting range for the week is 91600-92200. A strong northern reaction was given here on January 6, and on January 10 they were already aggressively dumping from here. Now this is the upper boundary of a certain value zone, whose lower boundary is in the 89750-90100 range.

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It seems that the northerners will squeeze above 92200, and if it holds there, this will be a very confident signal. But the southerners, if they need to take a ride down, will press below 89750.

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In general, one of the possible scenarios is shown in the image above. The most important range is 91600-92200. You can even capture from below starting at 90900. We watch and think about what to do with this.

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On Solana, traders are working fairly evenly. The situation here looks slightly less unambiguous when compared with the scenario developing on Bitcoin.

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On the one hand, it jumped inside the balance from the lower boundary, located in the 122-129 range, to the upper boundary in the 137-144 range. At the same time, in this jump from bottom to top, there are a couple of points notable from the standpoint of growth potential. Let's discuss them.

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If we identify the support array, its range can be narrowed to 124-127, where something had been turning around for three whole weeks. From here came a brisk, by current standards, jump into the 135-140 range.

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Here it is important to understand that the jump range, which is a pure imbalance, amounted to more than two ranges of the accumulation balance. This is a decent impulse signal. Also a strong signal is a confident hold above the VWAP of the sell impulse that began on November 11.

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Such jumps do happen inside a balance. And within a balance, they often end in a reversal. But such imbalances can also be the start of a strong impulse. If this is it, then growth of 15 bucks is looming ahead, followed by a move above 157.

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True, even within the balance, a high above last week can be made up to 150-152, only to return to 135 again.

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For a more precise search for scenario development options, we need to build an hourly Solana chart from January 1.

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The quote has clearly moved into balance.

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The buying fix was in the 141.8–143 range. It was approached twice, although someone may say three times, accumulating liquidity at 139.8–140.9.

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As for support, it is working as it should within the buy impulse. The liquidity placed on January 4 in the 133.4–134.7 range is still in the market. And if the buyer is strong, this range may well hold next week, although punctures of 132 will not be a violation either.

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In any case, the formation of the medium-term balance is not yet finished. That means one should not expect a sharp expansion "right now." The most likely scenario for the near future is work between the indicated ranges.

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Ether, as always, is the most volatile: it was in ether that the strongest fix of the northern dynamics since January 1 took place. This instrument is also in a medium-term one-and-a-half-month balance.

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Buyers pushed the ether quote up to the 3270–3305 range, where they failed to consolidate. But the move itself toward 3300 already says a lot.

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The week's core was formed in the 3075–3125 range. And over the past two months this was more of a southern zone. But now, for some reason, an opinion is maturing that this range may well act as a zone for forming a support array.

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The main scenario for the week implies some growth at least toward 3200. Whether there will be consolidation there or not, we will see later. If "later" they manage to reach 3300 and work calmly there, this will open the road further.

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But below 3000, and especially below 2900, the northerners will be very sad, while the southerners will be filled with hopes for a sharp profit increase, since there will be a chance of entering an impulse. But for now this is not the case, which means it is not worth playing this.

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And yes, ether is worth looking at from the point of view of a potential short. Let us build a chart from January 7, the date the decline started.

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Still, the decline is more in the nature of a descending balance. Yes, at the initial stage there was an impulse movement, but it was short both in the length of the move and in time.

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Tactical support is forming in the 3075.5-3082.5 range. Tactical resistance is in the 3121.5-3133.5 range. The next resistance range is 3163-3175.

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At the first stage of growth, if it happens, they may bounce sharply from 3197: shorts were loaded aggressively there on January 7. It is also worth noting the January 9 liquidation spike at 3060. Someone's stops were clearly taken out there.

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The cryptocurrency has a chance to grow. It is not exactly phantom, but clearly not momentum-driven.

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This means that there is no point waiting for multiples, but looking for careful entries to the north is possible, although the south should not be forgotten either. Across all quotes, there is some probability of continuing to work in balance, which means now is not the best time to open positions.

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And always, always remember to work with reasonable volume and clear stops: cryptocurrencies do not forgive greed.

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