Cryptocurrencies: Review and Forecast for December 27-January 02

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Winter is outside the window, and on the crypto markets too. People are not yet saying this out loud, but the fact remains: cryptocurrency quotes are standing still, and there is downside potential.

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Small crypto traders are not bringing in new money, and the big players have moved into other assets. Where to?

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Look at the euphoria in the metals market, where silver, platinum, and palladium all updated historic highs this week. They are the ones that replaced crypto for investors, the asset that was pumped a year ago. And really, why try to catch something in crypto when palladium adds 15.3%, silver gives +18.1%, and platinum immediately +24.5%. And all of this in a week on liquid instruments, without slippage and without searching for a counterparty to close the deal.

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And now the news that might have passed you by, but failed to do so.

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From the important. On December 23, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation decided to move to the next stage of crypto legalization. According to the central bank's plan, exchangers will become legal, and overall crypto trading will go through the existing financial infrastructure. And that is good.

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From the noteworthy. Our everything, Sberbank, lent money to major miners against cryptocurrency collateral. This is the first such case, and it is also an important step toward full-fledged legalization.

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From the unpleasant. Trust Wallet was hacked during the week. Many crypto traders had money flow into other people's accounts. It happens.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "5zzufu8x", "data": {}, "type": "readmore"}, {"id": "v33h577w", "data": {"text": "Bitcoin cryptocurrency (BTC)", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "g2fh0fdc", "data": {"html": "

Trading turnover in bitcoin continues to decline. On the one hand, it is the holiday season. But on the other hand, there is no money, but you hang in there. Some burst of liquidity happened on Friday, but more on that a little below.

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In the previous review, several scenarios for the development of the bitcoin quote plot were proposed. One of them was carried out almost exactly as written.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "99vhcg1z", "data": {"text": "Continuing work in the 86000-88000 balance, swinging within the entire range of last week with small higher-high and lower-low moves.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "kexnykg0", "data": {"html": "

On Monday, they made a small higher high of last week, reaching 90600, so that afterward they could calmly fall to 87000-88000. Except that on Friday there was a weak attempt to move above 89 thousand, but it did not succeed.

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Based on the picture, we can again talk about several scenarios. Each of them implies a move to the right, but in what way?

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This kind of balance, as we see now, has several possible outcomes. This includes an attempt to go to 92 thousand toward the end of the month and year. And a slow slide to 86 thousand: essentially, a repeat of the current week. And there is even an option to try to push below 85000, but that is difficult for now.

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To assess the prospects, and also to understand what happened on Friday, let's look at the hourly chart of the week.

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We see a classic story for Bitcoin, when an attempt to expand north immediately stalls, but the sellers cannot manage to do anything either.

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On Thursday, December 26, they tried to break out north, but could not overcome the sellers' limits in the 88950-89300 range. Already on Friday, December 27, sellers could not push through 86900-87200, as limit buyers stood their ground to the death.

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Such a game could have been a precursor to an exit from the range, but we have already seen a similar story on this instrument several times this month.

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So I will not try to guess anything. I will only wish crypto folks that Father Frost helps BTC grow to 92 thousand under the Christmas tree. There is no road further yet.

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In general, we are watching the lower boundary below 86 thousand and the upper boundary above 89 thousand. They may either give tasty reversals there, or no less tasty continuation entries. But where and how, it is hard for me to imagine now.

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On this cryptocurrency, I expected either an expansion south or a return above 129. I somehow did not consider the option of stopping in a narrow range. And in vain.

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Players slightly expanded the balance downward. Now the value area of the second half of December is in the 122-129 range.

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And again, as last week, one can reason that a short is asking for it, but that is if they need to distribute liquidity. And then the targets are somewhere around 113.

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And if they do not particularly need to distribute liquidity, they can even make a New Year's gift by going into the 137-144 range. But there is no need to play this, I say right away.

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And one cannot fail to mention the continuation of boring work within the 122-129 boundaries, with possible jumps a dollar or two lower/higher.

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Ether has also frozen in place. It is even unpleasant to look at this thing.

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On Monday there was a sluggish attempt to move above 3050, but nothing came of it. But no one wanted to short below 2900 either. In essence, for two weeks liquidity has been built up in the 2915-2990 range.

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Whether there will be distribution and when it will happen remains an open question. The balance model can be played out in both directions. And there may also be a third week of a terribly narrow sideways range.

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In general, if sellers keep pressing, then we may see even below 2700; if buyers come to their senses, then 3150-3200 will also be reachable. But there are too many “ifs,” so it is hard to talk about priorities.

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If this is not crypto winter, then it is definitely a crypto freeze.

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All hope is on the Fed turning on the printing press. But that is still far away. For now, speculators are driving metals to the skies, not crypto.

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Next week there may be a pre-New Year show in the form of another “dead cat bounce.” However, nothing prevents quotes from moving to the right, as they have been doing for two weeks already. And pressure to the south is also on the agenda, although for now there are not many reasons: after all, it is the holidays.

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Respectfully,
Ivan Rusin

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