U.S. Stock Market Futures: Review and Forecast for the Week 12/29-1/02

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The trading week on U.S. exchanges went exactly as it should have: trading volumes were small, and the direction was quite definite — northward.

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And since there was no especially interesting news from my point of view, we will move straight to a review of what happened and the likely scenarios for what may happen.

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A couple of general points. The market will still be thin, which means one should not expect anything supernatural from it. On the other hand, in such a market the models are “cleaner,” which means it is easier to work. Also, in such a market, if liquidity has been loaded earlier, it is not that hard to make good one-way moves.

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As for trading itself, futures can be speculated in until 12:00 CT on December 31. Trading will begin on January 1 after 17:00 CT. For us that will be 2 a.m. Moscow time on January 2.

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First, let us recall what we talked about a week ago.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "yf2lwpzg", "data": {"text": "The main scenario is an exit into buy. It is possible both from the weekly closing point and through a test around 6850 with the main liquidity gathered in the 6870–6890 range. The reasons are simple — there are all signs of a V-shaped reversal forming. And this means that we may see 6930, and then 7000 may be shown by Catholic Christmas or immediately after it.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "vtd4gbop", "data": {"html": "

That is exactly how it was. We missed 7000 by literally 4 bucks. Even a little annoying. Most likely, there is a cluster of profits there, which means a large short limit was hanging over it, and none of the big fish wanted to swallow it.

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Of course, I did not look into the order book near 7000, but the limit can also be hidden, i.e. when it is reached, market orders pour out, which is not exactly interesting either.

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It is worth mentioning the fact that I did not quite correctly assess the liquidity loading model.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "cxxb57gv", "data": {"text": "Searching for an entry: if they play out a nice buy model, then on Monday they should show an expansion, on Tuesday test it, and on Wednesday, before the day off, fly north. A classic of the genre.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "zdccpziw", "data": {"html": "

Still, on Tuesday the liquidity test was price-based, not volume-based, which means there is every chance to return to the opening of the outgoing week.

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Let us move on to assessing the market.

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The resistance range (6910–6945), formed in early November, has been broken on low liquidity. And this is the only worrying argument. Otherwise, within a normal scheme, they should return to this range and collect buys in it. But it would be even better to collect buys above the 6910–6945 range and continue expanding to the north.

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At the same time, in a thin market until December 31, the second option may even be slightly more realistic. True, there is no money in this 6910–6945 range: all the money was rotated on the previous paper, which means there will be a return here. The only question is when and how.

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Now let's look at the RTH week, i.e. only the U.S. trading session.

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Monday's initial balance passed in the 6917.5-6920.5 range, while the main session was in the 6929-6932 range. On Tuesday, America opened right in the 6917.5-6920.5 range, from where it immediately flew off and kept flying until Friday.

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The current value area is in the 6971.5-6985.5 range. Money was rotated here on Friday.

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What does this kind of weekly trading show us, when after a quick loading they rose all week, pressed against the +2 deviation from the weekly VWAP?

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There are several options here.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "h1ulcg3r", "data": {"items": ["A sharp strike on Monday at 7000 with a transition into balance in the 6970-7000 range. This will be a strong buy scenario. If after that they go below 6970, then we already look at 6950.", "Continuation on Monday of Friday's flat model. From here, three options are possible further: either something similar to option 3, or a sharp strike to 6950 with a return no farther than 6965, or a move above 6700 with consolidation.", "A smooth slide on Monday-Tuesday through the 6958-6962 range. And a transition into a wider 6960-6990 balance."], "style": "ordered"}, "type": "list"}, {"id": "lp0ww9ly", "data": {"text": "NQ Futures (Nasdaq-100)", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "ypvhslv4", "data": {"html": "

Speculators in this instrument played out a slightly different model. But still a northern one.

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The week opened above Friday's core in the 25530-25590 range. All they managed to do by Tuesday was almost close the price gap between the weeks. It was a good buy point.

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I indicated targets around 25900. In fact, they were not higher than that. Friday's volumes were built at the lower boundary of the 25900-26060 short imbalance. But this is the short imbalance of the previous instrument, which means everything is not so clear-cut.

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In any case, some kind of trading range is called for. To understand where this rotation may be directed, it is worth looking at the weekly RTH chart.

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The week's core formed in the 25684-25703 range. And this is natural support, while the week's VWAP is at 25773.

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Overall, the scenarios are very similar to those I expect on the ES futures: rotation down to VWAP with a return to the highs and further expansion, or expansion north through a flat.

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But here the weekly model is two-core, which means liquidity should be taken in the middle. I.e. here the transition into balance is more visible than on ES. In general, we watch 25700-25750. They may give a very tasty buy entry there.

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And here they made the expected move. How simple it is, after all, to trade holiday weeks like this.

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Players opened the week above 48450 and did not even try to enter 48200. Though, why would they?

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I will note that here, as on ES, the historical highs from early November in the 48420–48450 range have been broken, but new money was already accumulated in them the week before last, which means a move to 49000 is very fair.

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Here a test of the 48650-48850 range is called for, with liquidity being accumulated above it, i.e. Wednesday's trading-through.

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The week's profile is much neater than on NQ. The range expansion is also much neater than on ES. This instrument looks much more confident in terms of further expansion to the north.

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We are watching 48700 (the week's VWAP) as weekly support and 49100 as tactical resistance, which they may break by Wednesday. In a hard buy scenario, 48800 may hold before further expansion.

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On Monday-Tuesday it is worth taking a closer look at how the guys will load liquidity. Attempts at northern expansion remain the priority, which is reasonable to expect on December 31 as a New Year's treat. And after Thursday's day off, on Friday, January 2, they may shake it a little to the south.

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And then we will see what is what.

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