U.S. Stock Market Futures: Review and Forecast for 03/16-20/2026

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Expiration and rollover of quarterly futures. This is the main news of next week. However, the first money began flowing from the March futures into the June futures back on Friday, March 13.

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How much these words mean for speculators in quarterly futures and options. Expiration often removes the liquidity overhang of buy or sell players. And rollover gives true professionals working on the derivatives market a chance to open many positions.

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And I will remind you that futures during a rollover can both make you rich and instantly take everything away through constant stop hunting, if you open positions with aggressive risk management. But in two weeks, if there is no force majeure, markets will work more predictably, which means aggressive risk management will again be appropriate.

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Meanwhile, the VIX volatility index continues its moderate rise. For now, it is slightly below the 29 mark. This mark is a point from which a pullback is possible, but a breakout through it will also come together with falling knives in the U.S. stock market.

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Last Friday, 5.4 thousand contracts were closed in the March YM futures paper, and just under 7 thousand contracts were opened in the June one. This is a typical rollover: open interest essentially did not change, and the money flowed over neatly.

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And now let us move on to the analysis of the weekly cluster chart. After all, the situation is interesting because of calendar and geopolitical factors.

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In the past week, the quote bounced off the 47700-48000 range and entered the 46450-46800 range, which I spoke about two weeks ago as the target in case of a decline. Right here, at 46280, is the VWAP of the entire buy impulse since the end of April 2025.

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Trading turnover was slightly lower than last week, but still very high: 796 thousand contracts versus 809 thousand. This is twice as much as last summer, and slightly less than 1.5 times more than earlier in the expiring contract.

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If we look at the accumulations, then this whole decline looks very much like a serious imbalance: money was accumulated throughout the contract in the 49350-49750 area, and then it dropped like a stone. It is clearly visible on the weekly charts, but a bit crooked on the daily ones.

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And if so, the targets should be in the 44530-45110 range. Unless, of course, they start picking it up near 46000 for a reversal on the new paper.

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And a small hint. On the new contract, they may finish playing out the dynamics of the old contract and reverse it. That is, from this point of view, it can collapse so that everything is bought back at the bottom.

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On the 8-hour RTH chart (American session), it is worth paying attention to the gaps between sessions. Far from all of them have been traded through. Others have only been traded into. And this is a common signal of market weakness.

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Players in ES futures behaved much more aggressively. The total increase in open interest amounted to a substantial +71.7 thousand contracts.

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If that much had been added on other days, it would have been a signal of very strong one-sided expectations. As it is, this is a typical rollover: 317 thousand contracts were dumped on the March paper and 389 thousand contracts were opened on the June one.

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Earlier, I highlighted the 65650-67100 range as key. Here on the December futures everything was being bought up extremely aggressively.

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They pierced it calmly toward the end of the week, which means we definitely should see 6500. And then?

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And then we can already wait for a test of the 6465-6490 range, after which the 6400-6430 range will also seem quite reachable.

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In general, we are waiting for new money here too.

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And the chart of only the American sessions (RTH). There are gaps between sessions too. They get traded into, but far from all of them. A clear and understandable signal of buyers' weakness.

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The rollover is also starting in NQ futures: 28.2 thousand contracts were closed, and 36.5 thousand contracts were opened. Everything is going according to plan.

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NQ futures opened the week with a really strong imbalance, but players returned the quote into the 24770-25070 range, where they have been working for a good half of the contract.

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The targets are at 24000, and in general at 23200-23600 and even around 22800. And by then the new paper will also be loaded.

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And finally, let's look at this paper only during the American session. There are gaps here too, although the pattern is not as aggressive in terms of decline as on other papers.

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American indices are clearly going to move lower. The open question remains where and how the main liquidity flow will take place. There (and then) it will be possible to think about what to do with the papers and whether it is worth looking for medium-term entries.

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