US Stock Market Futures: Overview and Forecast for 27/04 - 01/05/2026

April 2026 became almost the craziest month for the US stock market.

Technology sector stocks gained enormously in value, and this was on a high base, without an inflow of fresh money and against the backdrop of the Iranian crisis. Of course, the media again began talking about the prospects of AI, chips for AI, and so on.

But what is hidden behind this? It is not completely clear to me. We will need to look a little later at the data on capital inflows into the US from Dubai and other Middle Eastern monarchies.

There is a well-founded suspicion that one of the hidden goals of the conflict is to stimulate a flow of capital into the US. On the chart above (latest data is February 2026), it is clearly visible that the inflow of money into US bonds is drying up, and this is against the backdrop of rising budget spending.

We will talk about this in more detail some other time next time. For now, let us look at VIX futures.

On April 16, the third-largest volumes on the instrument went through - 1.659 million contracts. The second-largest figures went through on April 8 - 1.679 million contracts. And the first ones (2.383 million contracts) were on April 14.

Despite the off-the-charts optimism, VIX stopped around 20-21 points. This is the zone below which the market is calm, and above which it is tense.

And now for almost two weeks VIX has been in this 20-21 zone, where volumes went through on both April 14 and April 16. It is not twitching. Trump is twitching, Iranian talking heads are twitching, but VIX is not. Let us stay alert.

Now let us move on to stock index futures YM / ES / NQ.

On YM futures, today we will look only at RTH (the US session, regular trading hours).

On the chart below is the impulse from April 13.

Everything is clear there: on April 13 (Monday) there was an imbalance, then 3 days of liquidity accumulation in a flat range and Friday opened 0.85% above Thursday's close. In other words, a typical gap between RTH sessions, and everything that happened during the Asian and European sessions is a different story. The money is still American, and the market is American.

During the past week they tried to trade the gap very carefully. Only on Thursday, April 23, were speculators able to push the price to 49040 and sharply bounce it back.

Thus, at the moment the untraded gap is in the 48915-49040 range.

It is perfectly visible where the main balance is being formed. Buyers are accumulating liquidity in the 49300-49355 range. This is a very dense platform.

The core is located in the 49580-49650 range.

There is no resistance as such yet, if we do not count the core of this zone. Therefore, I will simply mark the pure reversal liquidity placed in the 49985-50005 range. I will repeat once again: there is no money here, but why not use this zone to look for a double top.

Looking at this chart, you can immediately prepare for two scenarios for the start of the week. The scenarios are specifically for RTH, because other sessions, especially at the start of the week, are often not very informative for stock indices.

In the first half of the week, the following development is most likely:

And on ES futures today we will also consider only RTH (the US session, regular trading hours).

Here too we will build a chart of the impulse from April 13, although, unlike YM futures, the consolidation here had an upward look, which indicates a very strong impulse.

It is worth noting that the gap between the weeks was successfully closed, but at the same time another all-time high was updated. The week was closed in the 7187-7196 range.

Within this scheme, one can expect another attempt at an expansion to the north, but there is no need to look for an entry before the US session, because Americans may not want to buy above 7200. And if they do not want to buy, then there will be nothing improper in them going toward 7122-7142 and maybe to 7100.

There is no hint in this story as to whether there will be some sharp reversal to the south, but within the framework of forming a balance at the current levels, some return toward 7100 is likely. However, 7250 should not be crossed out of the possible scenarios either.

On NQ futures, there is no point in looking at anything except RTH (the US session, regular trading hours). Again, this is the price action from April 13.

Here buyers have gone completely mad from impunity and pushed the price almost to 27500. The week was closed in the 27390-27435 range. And this is such a strong overbought condition that it would be quite good to pull back a little at the start of the week.

To where? To start with, into the 26860-27000 range, although they may try to hold 27100 as well. I am sure that in the coming week (at least in the first half) one should not expect the price below 27000.

Even if on Monday they try to keep expanding further to the north, it is quite reasonable to expect trading lower.

On stock indices in the coming week, one should expect some growth (on YM for sure, although in balance) and consolidation on ES and NQ. However, further growth is possible there as well.

Can geopolitics make adjustments? Probably only if Iran destroys the underwater communications connecting the Gulf monarchies with the US, thereby disconnecting them from the global financial system.

As for the rest, we see that growth everywhere has a healthy look, which means there is room to move until the move is cancelled.