U.S. Stock Market Futures: Forecast for 01/19-23/2026

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The key and, in a certain sense, positive news for the stock market and futures in the outgoing week was Jerome Powell's much-discussed comment, in which he literally said the following:

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "edpm3vad", "data": {"text": "The threat of criminal prosecution is a consequence of the Fed setting rates based on our best assessment of what serves the public interest, not the president's preferences.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "5bts6td5", "data": {"html": "

This is a response to, just imagine how unthinkable all this was even a year ago, the criminal prosecution of the Fed chair over the renovation of the Fed building. Note that Powell's actual persecutor, Trump, has also been seen renovating one building that is very symbolic for the United States.

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Why is Trump trying so persistently to remove Powell from his position? Donnie wants to turn on the printing press so stocks and crypto grow like yeast, and inflation? Who cares when you can switch on full risk-on!

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ES futures played out strictly according to plan over the past trading week. Let us recall the overall disposition.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "wef0wn5a", "data": {"text": "The general scenario for the second week of January implies consolidation at the levels reached. The POC levels of the last two weeks (6950–6960) may act as support.\n\n\n\nIn a more aggressive scenario, buyers will not let it go below 6980: I remind you that the 6978-6990 array may become support.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "bqhsydwu", "data": {"html": "

In fact, the week's core was formed in the 6778-7011 range, meaning the 6978-6990 array was support in a certain sense. Yes, on Wednesday it was pierced fairly deeply, down to 6924 (the reversal array was shaped in the 6926-6935 range).

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Thus, they touched the VWAP of the year, the month, and the current buy impulse.

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The growth in trading turnover continues. Not extremely aggressively, but the accumulations are quite dense.

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They may produce both a further move north and continued work in balance, albeit with trading through the 6945–6955 range. Another alternative, which is also quite likely, is a sharp strike toward 6900 with a return to the 6950 area, i.e., continued balance formation.

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Let us move on to the weekly RTH (regular trading hours) chart.

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Buyers worked actively in the 6926–6935 range on Wednesday. So actively that Thursday even opened with a gap, which, however, was calmly traded back. And this is already not very pretty from the point of view of buying potential. But more on that a little later.

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The double imbalance zone is the 6946–6962 range. On Friday, the imbalance boundary was touched and price bounced. Also note the 6971–6975 range, which also looks like an imbalance, and America opened here last Monday as well.

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Resistance for the week was formed in the 7007–7018 range. And if from Tuesday it pulled back well from here (an impulse inside the balance), then Thursday opened here again and the pullback was very weak.

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Several stories can be seen from here. This includes a continuation on Monday-Tuesday of work in Thursday-Friday's range, with a possible move north on Wednesday, and a repeat of Thursday-Friday's setup, but in last week's reverse imbalance zone (6946-6962), with the possibility of both a northern strike and a more complex volatile rocking of the boundaries.

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In a move north, the 7070 area may act as a target, but this game has not yet matured for now.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "9nhhuuq3", "data": {"text": "NQ Futures (Nasdaq-100)", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "znpor9k0", "data": {"html": "

And here, too, everything went according to plan. Let's first look at what development of events we expected.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "aoirgdxp", "data": {"text": "We may well witness and even take part in the start of new northern momentum after a confident hold above 26200 right from Monday.\n\n\n\nAt the same time, some work in 25850-26100 may be needed to move higher. And, of course, we monitor 25750-25800 early next week: they may make a move here to test support and go higher.\n\n\n\nIf buyers do not feel very confident, they may touch from above or even work briefly in the 25805–25840 range. But the main work is still more likely above 25850.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "c8vumobf", "data": {"html": "

And now let's see which of our expectations was realized in practice.

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Overall, they worked almost according to plan, staying in balance and reducing volatility.

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In the previous review, I took fairly wide boundaries of 25850-26100, although on the chart everything was marked more clearly: 25870-26060. And, surprisingly, it was exactly here that NQ gathered some liquidity, which is still hard to position anywhere, although overall, at the moment, this liquidity is showing itself as resistance.

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I will separately remind you that the 25870–26060 area is a range of very strong imbalance from November 3: there was effectively no trading there, and it is a volume gap. It acted as resistance twice in the previous contract, once at the start of the current contract, and now they managed to trade through it, but not overcome it.

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On Wednesday, they approached the upper boundary of the 25190-25400 support range and closed the week in the already familiar 25570-25760 area.

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What to expect? In such a game, one can expect both another lower move for purchases and attempts to hold above 25900.

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Let's look only at RTH.

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On Wednesday, buyers caught the quote in the 25445-25500 range, from where they pushed it out with a gap (Thursday's open) into the 25700-25915 area. On Friday, the gap was closed, with liquidity gathered at 25685-25720.

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Liquidity is scattered, and there is no clear picture yet. They may try to move above 25900 or trade around 25500 and a little lower. So everything is complicated here.

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A lot depends on the weekly open: if the U.S. opens above 25900 on Monday and trades there confidently, then persistent attempts to move north can definitely be expected. Otherwise, one needs to react according to the situation.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "auxp4dol", "data": {"text": "YM Futures (DJ-30)", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "c3jkfki6", "data": {"html": "

It is not surprising that everything is going according to plan in this instrument as well.

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It very much looks like YM is ready to start moving north. Moreover, it looks the most northern among the main instruments.

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The weak resistance zone in the 49715-49810 range looks very weak. There is no money there, and the quote is getting closer and closer to it.

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If we play around with technical analysis patterns, we see the formation of a classic continuation pattern. There is a steady impression that the guys want to break 50000 and show 50500 almost as soon as next week.

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RTH is showing interesting dynamics. The expansion from Wednesday to Thursday on the Weis Wave indicator showed 140 thousand contracts in buy. That is not little, and it may be a strong argument for preparation for an upside move. Of course, a variant of some divergence is still possible (the range is not great, while decent volumes were thrown into the move), but we are not playing it that way for now.

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On Wednesday, the quote was picked up in the 49110-49240 range after touching 49050 and was stopped in the 49720-49810 area, from where it had been dumped on Monday. On Friday, it stood confidently under the mass of potential resistance. Multiply this by a strong Weis Wave and we get a decent signal of potential northern expansion.

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On Monday-Tuesday they may continue building volumes above 49480-45020, and this is a northern signal.

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Building volumes above 49800 is a very northern signal, especially if they open there on Monday and calmly accumulate liquidity.

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But trading no farther than 49250 (I mean volumes, not tails) is a balance signal, but with northern potential.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "aggj5j0d", "data": {"text": "Conclusion", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "nlrk4y09", "data": {"html": "

If last week we expected balance and it happened, then it very much looks like the stock market may already rip north next week. This is especially clearly visible in the YM futures.

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