U.S. Stock Market Futures: Forecast for 02/23-27/2026

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The main storyline for American markets is as follows.

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On February 19, the U.S. Supreme Court finally ruled that Trump had exceeded his authority by using the emergency law to impose tariffs. In the judges' opinion, the "Trump tariffs" contradict the legislation.

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This decision should have been released more than a month ago, but the announcement dates were postponed. Well, the law is the law, and the Supreme Court is the final authority when it comes to how things should be.

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But it also happens that Mr. Trump declares that all tariffs "remain in force," as if hinting that the Supreme Court's decision is no directive to him. The statement is clearly aimed at the public, to divert attention from a small defeat in the behind-the-scenes struggle. But the next day, February 20, Trump signed an order introducing an additional tariff of 10% "for all countries."

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After the order was signed, stock index futures were a little stormy, and that was enough to collect liquidity in a comfortable place and range.

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Meanwhile, the Americans continued building up their military grouping around Iran. But that is an entirely different storyline.

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In any case, the VIX volatility index is not rising, which means there is no expectation that something terrible is coming. On the VIX chart (below), the highest spike is exactly the story with Trump's tariffs. There is nothing like that now.

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And now let's move on to the review of how speculators played stock futures.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "hquos9ll", "data": {}, "type": "readmore"}, {"id": "vsfmrv90", "data": {"text": "ES Futures (S&P 500)", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "6h59ja9z", "data": {"html": "

Last week worked out as expected according to the priority plan: the futures quote remained in the contract value area.

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Let's recall what was discussed last week:

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "utrc71kf", "data": {"text": "What do we see on the contract's daily chart? Frankly speaking, this does not look very much like the start of full-fledged southern dynamics (a correction of at least 10%). It looks like an ordinary game in balance (3%) back and forth. A delay here of more than two days may be a signal for cautious buying — after all, no one has left the balance yet.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "v52898f7", "data": {"html": "

And now it is time to get down to business and see what happened in the past week and what to expect in the coming week.

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The quote was held above the 6805-6825 range, which could have become the dividing line between balance and deeper dynamics in the southern direction.

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Let us mark the 6855-6890 range as extremely important for next week. This is where both the core of the outgoing week and the liquidity for pushing into short, which took place on February 12, are located.

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We should also note the liquidity in the 6900-6922 range, where they worked on Wednesday and Friday (February 18 and 20).

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We also do not forget the 6959-6998 range, where sales were loaded the week before last. We do not forget it because it is clearly a target; we are moving toward it now and may approach 7000 again.

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Is there some probability that the quote will go above 7000?

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In general, of course, such scenarios can be drawn. And the model also has some signs of preparing an expansion. But it will be possible to speak about this confidently no earlier than after a volume-based consolidation above 7020-7030 occurs.

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Let us assess RTH on H4 for the week.

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6895-6905 is the support range if we move toward a relatively or fairly aggressive expansion to the north.

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The volume array loaded in the 6910-6920 range also belongs here. This includes the week's POC at 6918 and aggressive buying. It looks very much as if the north is the priority.

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And we remember that the key liquidity for pushing into short (say 6880-6890) has long been below us, and this is a clear signal.

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The volume bottom of last week, 6842-6853, became support from Tuesday. Moreover, on Thursday they held it exactly the way buyers should hold broken levels.

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Thus, if America opens and closes above 6930 from Monday, this is a reliable northern signal. But if America goes below 6890, then here:

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "atrmwx2y", "data": {"items": ["either a scenario of continuing work in 6850-6920,", "or attempts to move below 6840, but here again one can look for opportunities to enter a short impulse."], "style": "unordered"}, "type": "list"}, {"id": "3x6t033e", "data": {"text": "NQ Futures (Nasdaq-100)", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "8iy8yoyc", "data": {"html": "

This futures contract held at the newly formed lows during February. First, a bit of self-quotation:

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "qv8nk80u", "data": {"text": "Some holding of the quote within the previous week's range may be a hint at an expansion of the balance range, rather than preparation for the continuation of southern dynamics. In such a scheme, one needs to watch +/- 25100 and 24900-25000 carefully: if sellers control the quote, then these are attractive short-entry zones for the coming week. Above 25400, it is better not to think about medium-term sales, especially in the second half of the week; although they may play both ways, these will only be intraday stories.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "3iz8j243", "data": {"html": "

And now let's see what actually happened. And it happened almost exactly as outlined. From 25100 there was a short on Thursday, February 19, but only to the bottom of the 24740-24920 balance.

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At the same time, the quote is in a balance phase at the bottom: the 25130-25225 areas (January volume bottom) and especially 25285-25395 (the short array from the week before last) have still not been overcome.

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The contract VWAP is located just below 24450. That is, everything I wrote about in the previous review remains valid.

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In general, if the ES futures give some hope at least of reaching the highs of the contract balance, then the NQ futures still look much worse: I expect some consolidation to continue in 24700-25400.

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But let's check RTH. There it is much clearer where and how they are looking.

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Here everything is relatively simple: we watch the very wide 24890-25000 range. It should become support next week. Below it, either a search for longs in the balance (around 24750), but not immediately, only after some reversal stories, or a search for short continuation.

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YM futures spent the whole week sideways between 49200 and 49500, though with a small manipulative move, at that moment, below 50000.

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They stopped above the contract VWAP, which can be viewed both as relative strength of buyers and as accumulation of sales. But we have been standing here too long for sales, so for now we will give priority to buyers.

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In general, two main scenarios are visible: either a volatility swing around the balance, or an attempt to return to 50500.

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The RTH weekly model here is the least successful from the standpoint of expectations.

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There is clear volume above in the 49872-49912 range and the same below in the 49240-49294 range. The impression is that on Wednesday, smart money entered at the highs in order to exit at the lows on Friday.

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Here we need to watch liquidity positioning. Consolidation above 49900 is a buy signal. But when that will be, immediately on Monday or closer to Wednesday, we will see during the week.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "rc6zf8qw", "data": {"text": "Conclusion", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "8myxmgx4", "data": {"html": "

The quotes of the main equity futures seem to have bounced off the lows. There is a probability that in the coming week they may move toward the January-February extremes.

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Everything will become clear by Tuesday, and then it will be possible to make a balanced decision about how to proceed and what to do.

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