U.S. Stock Market Futures: Forecast for 02-06/03/2026

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The March quarterly futures end their "life" in two weeks. Often, though far from always, these two weeks are the busiest of the entire contract term. It looks like the start of March could be very volatile.

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Let's start with the fact that during the week either investors or speculators were dumping financial-sector stocks: JP Morgan — -3.38%, Bank of America — -6.09%, Wells Fargo — -8.17%, American Express — -10.77%. The technology sector also had losses: Nvidia alone lost 6.65%. This decline pulled the whole market down.

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And we are talking about weekly losses. If we look only at Friday, both Microsoft (-2.23%) and Apple (-3.21%) were in the red.

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The reason for exiting Nvidia shares was the expected difficulty in implementing its development plans. And IBM is flying downward with acceleration, like some penny stock (a shitcoin in modern jargon), because the AI Claude Code learned to program in COBOL. The language itself is older than many of us, but it is used in America's financial infrastructure (ATMs, etc.).

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There is an opinion that the real reason for the decline in the stock market, and then the derivatives market, was the rise in expectations of strikes on Iran. Which is what happened on Saturday afternoon.

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By the way, oil futures had already moved north on high turnover on Thursday, first sweeping out all the buyers. A classic flat-loading scheme with a V-shaped stop sweep.

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Meanwhile, Iran is promising to close the Strait of Hormuz: 30% of global oil exports.

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But we got distracted — let's return to stock futures.

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The VIX index did not move much over the week. But let's see what happens on Monday. Maybe we will see an open above 22, but that is far from certain.

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In this review we will consider only long-term stories, since the strikes on Iran are exactly that source of volatility, and looking for targets / movement strength in such a situation is a thankless task.

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Let's look at the weekly cluster chart from the start of the last impulse (late April 2025). In less than two years, the quote rose by more than 30% — that is a lot for equities.

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It is clear that within this impulse the quote honestly grew between +1 and +2 deviations from the impulse VWAP. In addition, all contract balances are located above, without a general overlap — also evidence of an impulse.

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What should we expect within this almost 2-year impulse? Until the Fed's money printer is launched, a correction is quite possible. For example, down to 47700-48000 with a sharp return. This would indicate a high probability of the impulse continuing.

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If we go lower, then for now we absolutely cannot go below 46450-46800 (by "below" I mean volume accumulation, not a price spike). The core with the POC of last December's contract is located here, and the average of the buy impulse has also moved up to this area. Usually, even almost always, this kind of impulse model "pattern" implies holding this range.

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And can we go conquer new highs right from current prices? The model allows it, but there have already been 3 full-fledged extensions north after the initial impulse. We also see weekly turnover growing specifically in the current March contract at the extreme. These are all signals of a probable completion.

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However, completion can also happen through a new high, but why bet on a sharp rise in such geopolitical realities? There is no reason, unless there is confidence in an unconditional U.S. victory already on Monday or Tuesday.

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And most importantly, what I talked about at the beginning: the last two weeks of the futures contract's life. And the model is asking for an extension somewhere. If not now, then right at the futures rollover.

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And just one chart (H2) to show the likely priority of the south.

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On Monday, in the 48970-49040 range, they began slowing the quote, but there were still sellers there. And that range then acted as a kind of local resistance. But on Friday, below it, they worked very densely after lunch in Chicago.

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This is exactly how a seller often enters at the most comfortable current price near the lows, which later become the entry point for a continuation of the move.

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Within the last 2-year impulse, ES futures rose by more than 35%.

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In this instrument, the most significant weekly volumes occurred in the previous (December) contract, but in the current March futures contract, turnover is also clearly above the averages since the start of 2025.

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Let us note that the balances of the two contracts are not aligned, but are close to each other: a clear sign of a stop, fading, and a probable reversal for unloading.

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In addition, we are working below +1 VWAP after a strong volume accumulation above +1 VWAP in the 6950-7010 range. This is a very strong signal of preparation for a test of the impulse average, which is located around 6520.

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Thus, if the ES futures quote heads south, the first target will be around 6500. And it is very undesirable for players at the start of the next contract to begin accumulating liquidity in the plane BELOW the 6650-6710 range. If we see liquidity accumulation there, that will be a signal for further southern expansion.

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But let's not get too far ahead. We simply proceed from the fact that the south is quite possible.

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And do not forget that above 6950 is the buyers' control zone. If suddenly the contract is closed there or higher, then it is better to hold off on looking for shorts.

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If we take a quick look at H2, we will see a slightly different model than on the YM futures.

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If shorts were loaded, the last of them were poured in the 6878-6885 range. We need to watch the U.S. open: the picture for the whole week will depend on where and how it happens.

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In less than two years, NQ futures have risen in price by almost 50%. That is colossal growth.

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On the weekly chart of this futures contract, the picture is even clearer than on ES futures.

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The balances of the last two contracts are strongly compressed in one plane, while the quote has moved below +1 VWAP and is trading somewhere around +0.5 VWAP. This means that we will see the average VWAP of the entire impulse (around 23900) very soon. Just some thousand dollars down.

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I do not know whether we will see 23200-23600, but it is very likely that we may end up exactly there. And somewhere around there, they may already start catching it speculatively. But that is not certain, just as the strike south is not certain.

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And the H2 chart. If the quote cannot overcome 24970-25000, but rushes below 24700, this will be a confident signal of added shorts. Above 25000-25100 they may start another game again.

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A short strike looks quite likely even without news from the Persian Gulf, and with it, even more so.

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It looks as though, ahead of the March contract close, futures are ready to move south. Everywhere, the setup hints that such a scenario is quite possible. This is best seen on NQ, followed by ES. YM, however, is lagging a little, but there are also some hints that it may be possible to unload a bit after the two-year impulse.

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An attack on Iran may well become a reason for unloading before the printing press starts closer to the end of spring - the middle of summer.

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