Daily Forex Analysis for 18.12.2023

Hello. Below will be several recommendations for trading on the Forex market for 18.12.2023

On the EURUSD pair there is an interesting picture and the Rails pattern. On Friday all pairs went into correction, but here the highs were not updated, unlike the others and the dollar index. It is still unclear whether the divergence is corrective, or whether we will turn over the long distance. I will watch the reaction in the FVG 1.0828. If we slip through it, I will watch for sales with targets at 1.0694 and lower. 

On the GBPUSD pair, an Inside Bar pattern formed after updating the highs at 1.2746. For now I consider the downward movement as corrective toward the 1.2634 level or slightly lower. If we consolidate below the level,  I will start looking for sales, aiming for a breakout of the 1.2499 lows and a move lower into FVG 1.2402. 

On Gold there is an Engulfing pattern below the 2039.93 level. On Thursday I already wrote that I would start looking here at sales. For now I am selling to the lower border of FVG 1996.77; if we pass it and consolidate, I will continue sales with targets around FVG 1955.23 and lower, at least 1931.52.

New York Fed President John Williams

The Fed's "dovish pivot," which consists of the regulator moving toward discussion of the timing of a rate cut, lasted until Friday. At the end of the week, with rare exceptions, the main world stock indices rose. Setting new local and annual records.

In China, the broad SCI300 index fell, as did other mainland stock indicators. Investors are disappointed by weak retail sales, despite a strong rise in industrial production.

New York Fed President John Williams warned traders against excessive euphoria over expectations of rate cuts in March. He considers this timeframe unrealistic; no one at the Fed is even discussing this period yet, nor any specific dates for monetary policy easing.

The second half of the month is opened by reviews:

There is no news in the evening.

At 12-00 the IFO index for Germany will be released

Cryptocurrency capitalization by the end of the week decreased to the level of $1.58 trillion. Bitcoin retreated from the $41500 mark.

The main news of this week for Russian users was Binance's complete abandonment of the ruble. The company will also transfer transaction data to US authorities, along with payment of the fine.

U.S. authorities continued to “harass” crypto exchanges over the past week. In particular, the Kucoin platform left New York State, paying $22 million in fines and compensation to users.

And U.S. regulators are fighting for the right to control digital currencies. The CFTC is promoting the idea of recognizing cryptocurrencies as commodities in order to take away the SEC's ability to recognize them as securities.

At the end of the week, hackers compromised the Ledger Connect Kit application, which connects a “cold” wallet with smart contracts. This allowed attackers to inject malicious code. Losses from the attack amounted to just over $600 thousand. The security of the wallet and the Ledger Live app were not affected.

Sincerely, Artem aka TeaDrinker
TradeLikeaPro