Cryptocurrency: review and forecast for March 22-28

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Cryptocurrency continues to remain in a relatively prolonged sideways range, but some very unpleasant moments have appeared for buyers. But first things first.

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First, let's discuss the Bitcoin fear and greed index. On the alternative.me resource it is at 10, coinglass is 9, cryptotrunk is 10, while coinmarketcap shows an incredible 27 points. Here it is either a malfunction in the calculation, or I cannot assume anything except that this kind of information should always be double-checked in independent sources.

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At the same time, according to CryptoQuant, BTC whales sharply increased their activity, bringing their market share to a 6-year high. Either they know something, or they are hoping for something.

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In the stock market futures review, I showed how, after Fed Chair Powell's press conference, investors sharply lowered their expectations for a rate cut. And this argues against crypto growth.

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And now let's talk about how the main cryptocurrencies (BTC / ETH / SOL) behaved during the past week, and also discuss what can be expected in the coming week.

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To begin with, a little self-quotation:

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "udpxoa5i", "data": {"text": "Conclusion: consolidation above 71300-71600 may open the way upward, while consolidation below 68800-69400 may well open the path lower. The south still seems more likely for now.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "lbsqrjn2", "data": {"html": "

The review was prepared last Saturday, and already the next day players did indeed choose the initial direction and went to touch 76000 per coin.

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After the buying game had played out, Bitcoin's mood changed sharply. This happened on March 18, even BEFORE the Fed meeting, but those who needed to already knew everything about the rate cut being postponed indefinitely. And that means one can stop taking money from the short sellers.

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On the daily chart, it is clear that liquidity was collected in the 73800-74300 range. You can take a wider range, but it is absolutely not necessary. After the collection, as I have already said, selling immediately collapsed into 69000.

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The next selling was already being gathered in the 70400-71500 range in order to try 68300 by the current moment, and this is clearly not the limit.

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It is worth paying special attention to the fact that there is a clear picture of impulse imbalances on the daily TF. At the same time, they are taking place on reduced volume. When such a picture appears at high turnover (an impulse inside a balance), it often leads to a reversal, but the start of an imbalance at low turnover often indicates that we are seeing only the beginning of the move.

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Once again, let's return to the hourly TF and build the short impulse from March 17.

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Imbalance in the 71500-73500 range. This is really very significant. Current selling added on in a flat pattern (a sign of seller strength) in the 70400-70800 range.

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And toward Saturday's close they struck south on high turnover. The decline from 90 thousand began the same way: sharp hits closer to midnight on weekends.

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What to expect?

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They may repeat the maneuver from the week before last, when on Monday they sharply reversed the selling. But this is extremely unlikely.

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Or they may continue selling all the way to 65000, and even 63000 would not be anything shameful. After that, we will need to watch how liquidity is placed, what is happening in the world, and how the stock market behaves.

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The Solana cryptocurrency is behaving a little differently. They managed to touch from below the range of the latest short entries (VAL) — 98-106. And they also began to decline, but not as briskly as Bitcoin.

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Let's build the short impulse from March 16.

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The imbalance is really very, very strong - the 91-93.2 range.

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After testing the lower boundary, players immediately moved down on increased turnover. True, before that they worked for three days in the 88.7-90.4 range, where they most likely accumulated another round of shorts. The path may even extend to 79, if I correctly understand what they intend to do in the coming week.

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The last cryptocurrency in the review is Ether (ETH). The move toward 2300+ was more than expected. Quote:

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "zv5pap5z", "data": {"text": "The signal for a transition to a northward strike toward 2300-2325 will be a confident consolidation above 2150 with volumes building over one to one and a half days.", "author": ""}, "type": "quote"}, {"id": "hmz45p40", "data": {"html": "

Said and done.

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And where could one look for a reversal? At that moment — below the 2262-2286 range.

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And what about now? Right now we have run into the 2060-2075 range, but there is an opinion that this is far from the end, and very soon we may see 1936-1992, specifically the lower boundary. And from there 1822-1870 is not far away. But we will not guess.

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On the hourly timeframe, it is all the same as everywhere else. A very strong imbalance in the 2207-2305 range. There simply was no trading.

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At the current moment, players are still holding the 2040-2070 range, which was once very important, and now I do not know.

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If we look at the delta, then sellers around 2180 pushed quotes extremely aggressively with market orders to where it is now. While it is lower and while the imbalance is not being traded through, playing from buys is risky.

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