Cryptocurrency: Review and Forecast for March 01-07

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Over the past week, cryptocurrency again attracted the attention of the general public, inspired by a certain inflow of fresh money into the market. The inflow is very weak, but it happened for the first time since early December 2025.

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A small inflow of money after a significant outflow is either cautious liquidity accumulation or an attempt at a sharp strike, but in no way the start of serious momentum. Serious upward momentum in crypto is possible no earlier than the Fed turning on the printing press. Everything else plays no role.

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The Fear and Greed Index according to coinmarketcap is at 16 — this is still extreme fear, but still a bit higher than the value of 8 that we observed last week.

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In the United States, a bipartisan bill was introduced to protect DeFi developers from criminal prosecution. Now Section 1960 (unlicensed money transmission) will apply only to those who actually control other people's money, not to those who write code. Incidentally, prosecutors under Biden pursued developers under this section because they merely wrote code and did not handle finances.

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Citi is turning bitcoin into a banking asset, including transfers via SWIFT. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley plans not only to introduce custody and BTC trading services, but also to begin lending against cryptocurrency collateral. We will note wryly that Sberbank already does this, albeit mostly for PR.

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Be that as it may, investment banks on Wall Street recommend holding no more than 5% of assets in investment portfolios, with an average value of about 1.5–2%.

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In Russia, cryptocurrency twists and turns continue: legalization of crypto exchangers, control over transfers of purchased crypto to wallets from the "blacklist," etc.

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Taking into account the upcoming legislative changes, the Moscow Exchange plans to launch not only new index futures on major cryptocurrencies, but also to start providing spot trading services: it is planned to move crypto transactions into the traditional exchange framework.

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And most importantly: the authorities plan to introduce accounting for cryptocurrency transactions, ensuring their mandatory execution through identifier addresses.

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Let us move on to the analysis of volume placement on BTC / SOL / ETH, after which we will consider probabilistic scenarios for the coming week.

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The first and main cryptocurrency, which, by the way, is mentioned in the Epstein files, stood in a sideways range over the past week. Of course, this sideways range from high to low is about 10% of the price. What other respectable asset moves 10% up and down in a sideways range? Exactly.

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On Monday-Tuesday, the quote moved into 63000-65000, from where it turned toward 70000 on Wednesday. Before the attack on Iran, it touched 63000 again and sharply returned to the 66700-68000 range, which we mentioned in the previous review as quite interesting.

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If you look at the week apart from the daily TF, then fans of “clean charts” may see an attempt to move north.

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What can be said here? On Saturday, exactly in one of the previously highlighted support ranges (63400–64200), reversal liquidity was collected and worked out tick for tick. On Tuesday, tactical buys were formed at 62700–63000.

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The middle of the balance, where players quickly threw liquidity back and forth, is the 65900–66300 range.

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Resistance can be divided into 2 parts: 68900–69500, where they simply did not want to buy, and 68000–68600, where they also did not really want to buy, but at least stayed there longer. At the time of writing the review, the bitcoin quote has just run into this range.

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Plans?

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Turn around straight from current levels or slightly higher into the 65900–66300 range, and maybe even touch the 63400-64200 range.

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Or this same thing can be done through 69500 and even with a move into the 70500-71700 range, which I highlighted on the daily chart. Some growth in volumes on Saturday supports this scenario.

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In general, I am waiting for a reversal model to appear inside the balance.

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The Solana cryptocurrency generally repeats bitcoin’s liquidity accumulation model. Except that the balance visually looks a little more lively, but that does not mean anything.

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Support remains as it was in the 77–79 range, while resistance is in the 91–93 range. Let me remind you that global resistance is formed in the 98–106 range, which still looks impregnable.

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On the hourly TF during the week, we should note a decent increase in volumes on February 28. It is a buy-impulse pattern, but still inside the balance of the higher timeframe. And such a pattern can be traded only from the lows.

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Volume lows are in the 76.50-77.20 range: on February 24, they bought it up nicely here. On February 28, buying was already in 78-79.5. The tactical middle of the week is marked in the 81.40-82.90 range. In turn, resistance is located in the 87.70-88.60 range.

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Plans?

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As with Bitcoin: look for a short entry point if certain reversal patterns appear. However, if they show a reversal buy pattern, then why not?

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We watch the indicated ranges and remember that in balances, liquidity is placed slightly above/below the placements of the previous period.

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They say Vitalik Buterin has stopped dumping ETH. The news is akin to when they say BlackRock is buying BTC.

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Ether is the only cryptocurrency that managed to reach the average VWAP of the short impulse and the resistance range of 2110-2136. Then the guys quickly loaded sales in the 2060-2076 range, after which Ether fell hard.

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At the start of the week, players were loading liquidity quite heavily in the 1822-1870 range. And this loading was going below the volume arrays that stopped the fall. On other instruments, let me remind you, they worked within the same ranges without setting up any complex puzzles.

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On the hourly chart, everything is very funny in the sense that during the week shorts were accumulated in the same place where once, long ago (February 7), tactical volume spikes took place that were larger than at the climax. The zone is holding.

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Supports for the week are in the ranges of 1820-1835 and 1849-1875.

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Plans?

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Everything is the same as everywhere else: work from the boundaries.

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On cryptocurrencies, it is worth looking for reversal patterns from the boundaries / out of the boundaries / slightly above or below the boundaries: moves of 10 to 15% are quite expected, and taking at least half of them would be very good.

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This is not an investment recommendation, but an analytical task.

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