Cryptocurrencies: review and forecast for February 14-21

{"blocks": [{"id": "1nuahpj2", "data": {"html": "

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "c03olst3", "data": {"html": "

The past week was extremely eventful in terms of real news. And this news inspires confidence in the medium-term and long-term future of cryptocurrency, whatever the alarmists may say.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "jl9yaffx", "data": {"html": "

Thus, the serious gentlemen from CME Group (they modestly call themselves the world's leading derivatives marketplace, and they are not lying) calmly announced the first trading in futures on Cardano (ADA), Chainlink (LINK) and Stellar (XLM).

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "l6j5vdw7", "data": {"html": "

This notable event happened on February 9. The first LINK and XLM futures trades took place between FalconX and Marex, and the first ADA futures trade took place between Cumberland DRW and Wintermute.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "3qf3w2dd", "data": {"html": "

In the press release, CME wrote: "Building institutional access to the next wave of crypto assets". In simple terms, this means that conservative "Buffetts" money will also flow into these assets.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "wtqdunzp", "data": {"html": "

While CME was drinking champagne over the launch of new products, Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller said (almost verbatim): "The euphoria that came to the crypto world with the Trump administration is generally beginning to fade. The main driver of the sell-off is the exit and rebalancing of positions by companies from the traditional financial sector, which had to reduce risk and cut exposure to crypto."

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "e5xf3f1m", "data": {"html": "

This is very clear and generally matches what we say in our reviews.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "znlorkmj", "data": {"html": "

At the same time, American banks are insisting on strict regulation of stablecoins as part of the discussion of the CLARITY bill. In their view, yields on stablecoins could provoke an outflow of funds from the banking system, which would hit lending to the real economy.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "tcu6gv05", "data": {"html": "

And the last important news: the CFTC included top figures from the crypto industry in its Innovation Advisory Committee (IAC). The list is full of people respected in the crypto sphere.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "t831fsme", "data": {"html": "

Meanwhile, the European Commission proposed in the new, 20th sanctions package to ban cryptocurrency operations with Russian counterparties. Such a step, according to the European commissioners, will block the possibility of bypassing traditional sanctions through crypto.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "n9rvy09b", "data": {"html": "

Remembering the figures of 7.5 trillion rubles processed in 2025 by the importer-oriented A7 platform, including through USDT, it becomes interesting.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "0k6mdvw2", "data": {"html": "

Against this background, Russian Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov reported that every day you and I exchange crypto and use crypto for exchanges worth about 50 billion rubles, which amounts to more than 10 trillion rubles per year.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "sv6zi4qz", "data": {"html": "

The laws regulating our crypto operations are planned to be adopted in March-June of this year, so that already in 2027 the turnover can be brought under state control.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "hs8qlkh4", "data": {"html": "

Against the backdrop of essentially good news, ordinary crypto folks continue to panic. The Fear and Greed Index is at an extremely low level — 8 points.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "2n8lxuk0", "data": {"alt": "cryptocurrencies", "url": "/uploads/2026/02/image-30.png", "size": "100%", "align": "center", "caption": "", "linkUrl": ""}, "type": "image"}, {"id": "zeu9sf4m", "data": {"html": "

Read in the review how this fear affected BTC / SOL / ETH trading (spoiler — it did not affect it at all).

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "q6dj5uoy", "data": {}, "type": "readmore"}, {"id": "ahro051g", "data": {"text": "BTC Cryptocurrency", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "i9zc2u44", "data": {"html": "

Straight to the point.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "cdvk6wn4", "data": {"html": "

The weekly cluster chart shows fairly active accumulation of horizontal volumes in the 67000-71000 range.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "jv990uyd", "data": {"alt": "cryptocurrencies", "url": "/uploads/2026/02/image-32-1100x574.png", "size": "100%", "align": "center", "caption": "", "linkUrl": ""}, "type": "image"}, {"id": "ayrby779", "data": {"html": "

Within the multi-year auction, this is the range that served as tactical resistance in 2023. Now we can say that the global support zone is being tested, and not unsuccessfully.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "vhh2977b", "data": {"html": "

Models of this kind often imply holding the main balance (57-70 thousand). This is not about speculation, but about the overall model. And this should calm long-term bitcoin holders.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "bij6ac90", "data": {"html": "

Now the daily BTC cluster chart from January 14, i.e. from the starting point of the current short wave.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "9ffrixz6", "data": {"alt": "cryptocurrencies", "url": "/uploads/2026/02/image-33-1100x564.png", "size": "100%", "align": "center", "caption": "", "linkUrl": ""}, "type": "image"}, {"id": "8cni3sg6", "data": {"html": "

All the money for the month has been accumulated from below in the 65500-70500 area, with the POC control point at 69100. This indicates the end of the impulse wave and a transition into balance, especially against the backdrop of extreme vertical volumes at the lows, which occurred on February 5-6.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "oin5yaaw", "data": {"html": "

At the same time, the action is taking place near the -1 deviation of the impulse VWAP; this means that above 77,000 the road is still closed. For now...

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "evikkr13", "data": {"html": "

Now the same chart, but close up.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "zkqm50o0", "data": {"html": "

The quote was caught at 63500-65000, but above 70500-71700 it still just is not working out. In fact, the action is taking place in the range that was formed on February 5.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "uk0ozlxg", "data": {"html": "

The speculative short setup implies a puncture of 72000 and even a wick to 74000, followed by a sharp strike to 60000, but with a return to balance. Of course, the sharp strike may also be stopped at 65000.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "zpejoi5e", "data": {"html": "

The second short setup implies looking for an entry near the impulse VWAP around 77500, i.e. at the defense of the 77700-79000 range, where for 4 days (from 31/01 to 03/02) sellers accumulated liquidity.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "iar6ng5e", "data": {"html": "

From here follows the probability of some speculative buying from 65000-66000 to 72000 / 74000 / 79000.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "6vnyoji6", "data": {"alt": "cryptocurrencies", "url": "/uploads/2026/02/image-34-1100x569.png", "size": "100%", "align": "center", "caption": "", "linkUrl": ""}, "type": "image"}, {"id": "h4w83b2b", "data": {"html": "

The conclusion is this: the BTC quote has moved into balance in a zone of potential demand. This balance may become medium-term, which means the possibility of expanding the boundaries in both directions with overall liquidity accumulation at 65-70 thousand. All this means there are currently no prospects for confident swing trading for 3-4 days in one direction.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "hn6v47r6", "data": {"text": "SOL Cryptocurrency", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "lb7acu3a", "data": {"html": "

Solana is slowly trading in the range of 77-88 bucks per coin. As with any crypto, this is a good range for speculation, more than 10% of the price. The only question is liquidations and the availability of liquidity.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "2qtsnjpj", "data": {"alt": "cryptocurrencies", "url": "/uploads/2026/02/image-35-1100x563.png", "size": "100%", "align": "center", "caption": "", "linkUrl": ""}, "type": "image"}, {"id": "mnjhj1e7", "data": {"html": "

The model here, in terms of attempts to expand northward, looks a little better than on Bitcoin. But Solana is not Bitcoin, so there is no point expecting any dynamics from it before movement starts on BTC.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "scl94e5o", "data": {"html": "

In addition, for a normal model there is not enough horizontal liquidity at 77-88. But in the coming days they should move the POC of the entire impulse from January 19 to the 85 bucks per coin mark. After that, the road to a test of 98-106 may open, not earlier.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "9i5yl4hx", "data": {"html": "

Let's break down only February on the hourly TF. Here the POC was moved to 80 dollars per SOL coin. This is exactly the upper boundary of the 78-80 support marked back the week before last. In turn, during the outgoing week this range was tested, after which price went back to rotational resistance in the 87-87.8 range.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "eqd7mo2o", "data": {"alt": "cryptocurrencies", "url": "/uploads/2026/02/image-36-1100x566.png", "size": "100%", "align": "center", "caption": "", "linkUrl": ""}, "type": "image"}, {"id": "kp4pits5", "data": {"html": "

The model is beautiful: absorption inside the balance. Liquidity is going into 84.4-85.4. But for now it may not work out above 88. Although, of course, they may try to enter the short cluster at 90-92.6. It was exactly this cluster that did not let the quote through during the week.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "4d9dnfsu", "data": {"text": "ETH Cryptocurrency", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "d6u8g8ea", "data": {"html": "

I never get tired of repeating: Ether is the most dangerous crypto instrument among liquid ones. If Bitcoin behaves quite adequately, and Solana is straight out of a textbook, then Ether is like gas in the energy market or emery on indices. This behavior is dangerous for a deposit because of sharp liquidations.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "gta8ei3l", "data": {"html": "

But let's get to the point.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "zf3sf61b", "data": {"alt": "cryptocurrencies", "url": "/uploads/2026/02/image-37-1100x569.png", "size": "100%", "align": "center", "caption": "", "linkUrl": ""}, "type": "image"}, {"id": "t12wh4l9", "data": {"html": "

On the daily chart built from January 28, the situation is generally identical. It is possible to go through 2100-2220 down to 1800-1900, or repeat the same thing through 2300-2400. Or it can be a little different: in balance it is very hard to imagine the general development of the situation; only on the lower TF can one look for clear intraday moves. Let's also look at the lower timeframe:

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "sdvaoxon", "data": {"alt": "cryptocurrencies", "url": "/uploads/2026/02/2026-02-14_07-00-06-1100x564.png", "size": "100%", "align": "center", "caption": "", "linkUrl": ""}, "type": "image"}, {"id": "uosi2trm", "data": {"html": "

Let me remind you that on January 7, in the 2040-2070 range, more money was turned over than at the price climax.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "8gy96z2f", "data": {"html": "

One respected trader wrote that a breakout from this range would be a strong movement signal. He is absolutely right about that. It is just that before the breakout, price can stand in balance, which is what happened on Ether.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "v0y9xcni", "data": {"html": "

The quote is here again. And it is standing confidently. It clearly wants a move higher. This and other liquidity need to be distributed, for example, 2300-2400 as a target, but that is not certain. It could also stand at 2150-2250 to return to balance.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "rjkq8pp2", "data": {"html": "

The POC is at 2000, and more than once next week or in a week we will see the quote there.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "ncdpr4qk", "data": {"text": "Conclusion", "align": "center", "level": 2}, "type": "heading"}, {"id": "910cwm2j", "data": {"html": "

The major, and the non-major ones too, cryptocurrencies may expand quotes northward as part of forming a wider balance. But still, after this, or even partly instead of this, I expect a return to the balances that have been forming since February 6.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "goufzi1x", "data": {"html": "

Can they sharply go even higher? The model, of course, allows it, but it is hard to imagine, especially against the backdrop of stock market players' unwillingness to go north. And crypto does not go against stocks, apart from some rare speculative stories, as now.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}, {"id": "axudzmec", "data": {"html": "

Or maybe they went for the sellers' liquidity, so that later they could go for the buyers' liquidity? Most likely, exactly so.

"}, "type": "paragraph"}], "version": 1}